NCEP/EMC

CWB 1-tier CFS

CWB GFS NCEP GFS

NCEP

1-tier CFS

NCEP CFS SST

CWB GFS NCEP GFS

GFS

AMIP

CWB 1-tier CFS

CWB GFS NCEP CFS

CWB 1-tier CFS

CWB GFS CFS

CFS CWB GFS

CFS CWB GFS

NCEP GFS

CWB 1-tier CFS NCEP CFS

NCEP CFS

SST

GFS

CWB GFS

NCEP CFS

T62L28

(NCAR/DOE Reanalysis 2, R2; Kanamitsu

et al. 2002)

GPCP (Adler et al.

2003) 2008

3 18 00UTC 8 31

(lead 0)

lead1 lead4 CWB

GFS NCEP GFS

AMIP

CWB GFS NCEP GFS

850hPa ( )

316

3 6 NCEP GFS

CWB GFS

500hPa ( )

CWB GFS

CWB GFS NCEP GFS

NCEP GFS CWB GFS

2.1

lead time

( )

/ / / SST

lead time

500 hPa ( )

850hPa

/ NCEP CFS

CWB GFS

CWB GFS

2.2

317

/ NCEP CFS

CWB GFS

CWB GFS

Adler, R.F., G.J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro,

P. Xie, J. Janowiak,B. Rudolf, U. Schneider,

S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, J.Susskind, P.

Arkin, 2003: The Version 2 Global

Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Monthly Precipitation

Analysis(1979-Present). J. Hydrometeor., 4,

1147-1167.

Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J Woollen, S.-K.

Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M.Fiorino, and G. L. Potter,

2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

(R-2).Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83,

1631-1643.

318

CWB GFS( ) NCEP CFS ( ) 850 hPa

4K 2008

3 6

CWB GFS( ) NCEP CFS ( ) 500 hPa

100 gpm

2008 3 6

CWB GFS( ) NCEP CFS ( ) ( ) (shaded)

R2

2008 3 6

319

500hPa

NCEP GFS( ) CWB GFS( ) (GFS) (

) ( ) 850 hPa 4 ( )

(shaded) OI SST GPCP

R2

320

321