| For Official Use Only Military-Strategic Information Section Strategic Division // Israel Defense Forces 1 September 20, 2015 Israel’s Security Challenges

| For Official Use Only

Military-Strategic Information Section

Strategic Division // Israel Defense Forces

1

April 19, 2023

Israel’s Security Challenges




• 1900 BC – Abraham

• 1300 BC – Outbreak of slavery in Egypt, Settlement in the promised land

• 1000 BC – The Kingdom of Israel

• 722 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Israel

• 586 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Judea, destruction of Jerusalem and Temple I

• 70 AD – Jerusalem conquered by the Romans, destruction of Temple II

• 1900 BC – Abraham

• 1300 BC – Outbreak of slavery in Egypt, Settlement in the promised land

• 1000 BC – The Kingdom of Israel

• 722 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Israel

• 586 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Judea, destruction of Jerusalem and Temple I

• 70 AD – Jerusalem conquered by the Romans, destruction of Temple II

2

Israel: History & Background

• 1882 – First Aliya (large-scale immigration back to The Land of Israel)

• 1897 – The first Zionist Congress

• 1917 – Balfour Declaration

• 1882 – First Aliya (large-scale immigration back to The Land of Israel)

• 1897 – The first Zionist Congress

• 1917 – Balfour Declaration

AN

CIE

NT

IS

RA

EL

AN

CIE

NT

IS

RA

EL

EX

ILE

EX

ILE

Birth of Christianity

Birth of Islam

Synagogues built to face Jerusalem




3

Israel: History & Background

• 1947 – UN Resolution 181 - Arab and Jewish states , War of Independence

• 1948 – Foundation of Israel, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)

• 1950’s - Terror attacks from Egypt & Jordan, Syrian shooting from Golan

• 1967 – Six-Day War, Jerusalem reunited

• 1973 – Yom Kippur War

• 1982 – Operation Peace for Galilee

• 2000 – Withdrawal from Lebanon

• 2005 – Evacuation from the Gaza Strip

• 2006 – Second Lebanon War

• 2009 – Operation “Cast Lead”

• 1947 – UN Resolution 181 - Arab and Jewish states , War of Independence

• 1948 – Foundation of Israel, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)

• 1950’s - Terror attacks from Egypt & Jordan, Syrian shooting from Golan

• 1967 – Six-Day War, Jerusalem reunited

• 1973 – Yom Kippur War

• 1982 – Operation Peace for Galilee

• 2000 – Withdrawal from Lebanon

• 2005 – Evacuation from the Gaza Strip

• 2006 – Second Lebanon War

• 2009 – Operation “Cast Lead”

THE STATE OF ISRAELTHE STATE OF ISRAEL


For Official Use Only Military-Strategic Information Section


4

Middle East: Area and Population

Egypt

1,000,000 km2

80.5 million

Iran

1,648,000 km2

67 million

Iraq

437,000 km2

29.7 million

Syria

185,000 km2

22.2 million

Lebanon

10,400 km2

4.1 million

Jordan

89,342 km2

6.4 million

Area

Population

Israel

21,000 km2

7.6 million




5

Geo-Strategic Characteristics

Lack of Strategic Depth

Population Concentration in Coastal Area

Proximity to Threat Sources

13.8km

Egypt 206 km

Jordan 507 km

Lebanon 112 km

Gaza Strip 59 km

Israeli Borders

Syria 79km




6

Threats and Dangers

Iran

Leader of radical camp

Nuclear development

Hegemonic aspirations

Support of proxies

Iraq

Terror threats

Lebanon

Hizbullah as dominant force

Iranian proxy

Qualitative and quantitative force buildup

Recognized political role

Palestinian ArenaHamas-PA tension

Force buildup

“Ticking bomb”

Ongoing hostilities

Global Jihad

Increased international cooperation

Approaching Israeli borders

Israel

Syria

Key Iranian ally

Sponsor of terror

Subversive in Lebanon




Israeli Security Challenges

7

Iran

“The Zionist regime faces a complete

dead-end…the corrupt element will be wiped

off the map…

Mahmoud AhmadinejadPresident of the Islamic Republic of IranIslamic Republic News Agency, (1/6/08)

The world must know that the Zionists are

to be gone.

During a visit in Southern Lebanon (14/10/10)




9

Nuclear Timeframe

Program expansion (Qom, planned construction, 20% enrichment)

Weaponization

Attack survivability

Decentralization

Tunneling

Air Defense

Increased Iranian rhetoric

Iranian ”Time Buying”

Busha’ar

Iranian Focus

Emerging “Breakout” Capability

Earliest: Late 2010More likely: 2011-2012+




10

Implications of a Nuclear Iran

• Destabilization of moderate regimes

• Long-range capabilities (EU)

• USA standing in Gulf• Implications for

energy security

• Regional domino effect

• Danger to US and international forces

• Nuclear umbrella for Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas

• Nexus between WMD and terror

Political-Strategic Military-Strategic Terror Promotion

Potential existential threat to Israel




11

Iranian SSM Ranges

Evolving SSM Trends Improved accuracy

Damage enhancement

Increased production

Increased range

Silo-based development




Iran seeks to destabilize the regional environment, supporting radical states as well as proxies

operating within failed states

12

Role as Leader of Radical Camp

Massive Arms Transfers

Qualitative & Quantitative

Funding

Training Ideological Guidance

Proxies play a vital role in diverting international attention from Iranian nuclear program




13

Ahmadinejad Visit to Southern Lebanon

Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, arrived in Beirut for his first official visit in Lebanon (Oct. 13, 2010). Ahmadinejad visited a couple of villages in Southern

Lebanon signaling his outward support of Hizbullah and his attempt to strengthen Iran’s influence in Lebanon.

Hizbullah Supporters Await the Iranian President





15

Syria

“Resistance…was and is

the essence of our policy, and it will

continue to be so in the future. It is the essence of our very existence

Bashar al-AssadPresident of Syria12/11/09, Syrrian Arab News Agency

Syrian Weapons Found in Lebanon




17

Dualistic International Approach

Western Engagement

Radical Conduct

Claimed willingness for peace

US and European engagement

Increased ties with Iran

Destabilization and intervention in Lebanon

Massive weapon transfers

Increasingly threatening rhetoric

Hosts radical Palestinian organizations





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Lebanon

“We shall not surrender, we shall not come to

terms with Israel…and we will continue to

believe and proclaim that Israel…must be

erased from existence

Hassan NasrallahHizbullah Secretary-General18/09/09, Sid el-Sha’ad Center in Beirut




Hizbullah is an illegal armed terrorist organization which consistently contradicts international resolutions (UNSCR 1701, 1559) and

undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty while functioning as an Iranian proxy and endangering the local civilian population

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Hizbullah

Polit

ical

Soci

al

Indoctrination

Socio-economic activities

Blocking Third

Part of the government

Mili

tary

Training

Drills

Smuggling

Infrastructure

Personnel

Arsenal

Tacit cooperation with LAF




21

Hizbullah’s military assets are deployed within populated areas throughout Lebanon,

as part of its strategy, doctrine and preparation for war.

5,000 Activists

≈30,000 Rockets

Hizbullah’s Deployment

in Southern Lebanon

Command

Unit

Sector

Village

Each village military

compound contains dozens of activists and

hundreds of rockets

Concept of Operation

Massive long-range strike

Targeting mostly Israeli population centers

Territorial defense of the launching units

Hizbullah’s Deepening Military Presence within the population




22

Case Study

El-Khiam




23

El-Khiam – Information

Population: 22,930

Distance from Blue Line: 4 km

Range of rockets: 20km

Shi’ite village surrounded by Sunni, Druze and Christian villages.

Extensive Hezbollah activity prior to and during Second Lebanon War

Active Hezbollah arena between 2000

and 2006, with IEDs, a UAV launch,

abductions and more. LAF presence

(20 tanks, 7 cannons, 50 APCs) failed

to respond to events (crossing of Blue

Line – 7/09, AT team in mosque – 4/10).SSR in Second Lebanon War

El-Khiam

Metula Neve Atib

Kirya’at Shemona




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Weapons in El-Khiam Village

Activists Approximately 90, including special forces

Artillery ≈600 8km range mortar shells

Rockets ≈200 40km SSRs

Engineers Explosive pits, IEDs, Claymore & shrapnel

Anti-Tank AT-14, AT-5, AT-4 and TOW missiles

Intelligence 5 OPs + emergency monitoring center

FAGOT AT

RPG29 (AT)

IEDs Hidden in Crates

Weapon Storage Facilities

22 locations within residential areas and in the vicinity of the mosque, the school and medical institutes.




25

El-Khiam – Arms Deployment

Mizra’at Sarda

22

250m

250m

457m457m

U

H

Bunker

Weapon Storage Facility (22)

Headquarters (13)C2

Observation Post (2)

School

UNIFIL positionHospital

Mosque




26

El-Khiam - City Center

U

H

Bunker

Weapon Storage Facility (22)

Headquarters (13)C2

Observation Post (2)

School

UNIFIL positionHospital

Mosque




27

For the third time in a little more than a year, a Hizbullah arms depot hidden

within the local population exploded on September 3rd. UNIFIL and LAF failed to

gain access to the site or seal it off and Hizbullah operatives removed weapons from

the building, transferring them to nearby villages and to a village south of the Litani

River.

Hizbullah’s Deepening Military Presence within the population




28

Civilian Shield

(Closed Military Zones)

2006 2010

CMZInhabited

Environment

Khirbat Salim

14/17/09

Depot in town center containing 122mm rockets, 155mm rockets, mortars and more detonates

Tayr Falsi

12/10/09

Arms depot detonates. Weapons are removed and transferred to nearby village

Marwaheen

23/8/09

Local civilians forcibly eject Hizbullah operatives attempting to establish operations in town




29

Hizbullah Weapons

THE IRANIAN-MADE ABABIL UAV

THE ZILZAL

220M ROCKET LAUNCHER

C802 COASTAL MISSILE

SAGGER ATGM MISSILES

Massive arsenal combined with advanced weapons, over 40,000 rockets, coastal missiles, UAVs and more.

122mm Grad (25km / 15 mil)

240mm Fajr 3 (50km / 30 mil)

Fajr 5 (75km / 45 mil)

M-600 (300km / 185 mil)

Scud-D (600km / 375 mil)



Strategic Division // Israel Defense ForcesLebanese Armed Forces

30

In recent months the Lebanese Armed Forces

(LAF) has become more provocative toward

Israel in its statements and actions. There

has been rock throwing toward the Israeli

side of the Blue Line with LAF standing by

silently as well as instances of LAF soldiers

pointing arms at IDF soldiers.

LAF provocations against Israel

peaked on August 3rd when LAF

forces killed an IDF officer and

injured another while IDF forces

performed routine engineer work in

what was unequivocally Israeli

territory. RPGs were also fired at an

IDF tank.




UNIFIL and the international community’s involvement is critical in order to prevent

further Hizbullah entrenchment

31

UNIFIL and the Int. Community

Determined action must be taken

against Hizbullah and arms transfers,

particularly in the village environment

Need for more independent and

proactive UNIFIL discharge of its

mandate in Southern Lebanon: prevent

illegal arms in AOR, protect population.

Legitimization of Hizbullah must be

avoided

UNDERGROUND HIZBULLAH CONSTRUCTION IN SOUTHERN

LEBANON





32

The Palestinian Arena




33

The Palestinian Arena

Hamas: Gaza StripContinued focus on force buildupRefusal to international conditions

Ongoing humanitarian supportGilad Shalit

PA: West Bank:Direct negotiations

Increased Hamas terrorist attacksCivil, economic and security growth




Measured growth and strengthening of the PA and local quality of life as a result of Israeli, PA, and international efforts to implement security,

economic, civil and security improvements. Continues despite entailed security risks.

34

The West Bank

Transportation

27 checkpoints removed

16 checkpoints remain all regularly open; Checkpoints improved

357 roadblocks removed (60 since the beginning of the year)

Opening road #443 for Palestinian traffic

Security

Independent 24/7 operations in 5 cities

6th PSF Battalion training

28 police stations opened

52 police stations operating in peripheral towns and villages.

Increased cooperation

Civil & Economic

2009-10: 38 roads improved

Electric and water infrastructure improved

Hundreds of VIP cards issued

30,000 permits for work in Israel granted

Rise of 12% in permits issued for Palestinian patients receiving medical treatment in Israel.

3%

Unemployment Decline

6.7%

GDP Increase

600%

Palestinian Imports

2.75%

West Bank Trade Growth

7%

Consumer Price Index

Increase

“All of Palestine is our

land, and it is occupied. It must return to its

owners…resistance is our strategic option for

liberating our land”…

Khaled MashalChairman of the Hamas Political Bureau9/10/09 , Al-Aqsa Television




37

The Gaza Strip Context

2006 2007 2008 2009

Unilateral Disengagemen

t

2005

PA Elections

Shalit Kidnapped

Hamas Coup State of Calm Operation in Gaza

2010

Increased deterrence




39

Gaza Strip Today

Kerem Shalom

Karni

Nahal Oz

Erez

Advanced massive weapon buildup

Refusal of international community’s terms

Sporadic attacks

Updated humanitarian policy

Smuggling economy




Gaza

Gaza Strip

Han Yunis

Rafah

Sderot

Beer Sheva

Ashkelon

Ashdod

Rehovot

Rishon LeZiyon

Jerusalem Area

Jerusalem

Tel Aviv-JaffaGazan Qassam Rocket

122mm Grad (Prob. Iranian)

Rocket based on Iranian Tech.Iranian-based Rocket

Chinese 122mm Rocket

Fajr-5 (Hamas Goal)

40

Hamas Arms Buildup

With Iranian and Syrian support, massive smuggling to the Gaza Strip takes place. This includes anti-tank missiles, missiles which can reach as far as Tel-Aviv, IED and more.

Military Buildup

Hamas knowingly exploits the local population as a civilian shield, using it for arms depots, arms-production centers, storage and tunnels.

Human Shield




Israel’s policy towards the Gaza Strip balancing civilian needs with security considerations

41

Summary of Aid Transferred in 2009

Humanitarian Assistance

Supply Trucks 30,920

Supplies (Tons) 738,576

Patients Treated in Israel

10,544

Medical Escorts 12,305

International Humanitarian

Personnel21,200

Trucks of Supplies for Infrastructure

184

Entry – without restriction – of all goods excluding

weapons and war material

Transfer of dual-use goods under international supervision

Streamlining of entry and continued activity

as Ashdod port




42

The Flotilla CampaignIn recent months, numerous campaigns to send flotillas to the Gaza Strip have gone underway, despite the updated Israeli policy. The self-admitted purpose of the flotillas are not to bring aid but to break the Israeli security restrictions vital to prevent ongoing Hamas military buildup. Israel shall uphold the maritime blockade on Gaza in order to prevent it from becoming an Iranian terror stronghold.

The May 31st FlotillaThe May 31st Flotilla The Mavi MarmaraThe Mavi Marmara

A six boat flotilla arrived in the area on May 31st.After exhausting every possible diplomatic measure,including offer to transfer the goods independently, the IDF boarded the boats, in line with International Law. The boats were redirected to Port Ashdod, theindividuals were deported and the goods were transferred.

A six boat flotilla arrived in the area on May 31st.After exhausting every possible diplomatic measure,including offer to transfer the goods independently, the IDF boarded the boats, in line with International Law. The boats were redirected to Port Ashdod, theindividuals were deported and the goods were transferred.

On one boat, activists planned a violent response,arming themselves with knives, bars, flack jacketsand more. After they attacked the IDF soldiers, the soldiers were forced to respond in self-defense,killing 9 and wounding 34.

On one boat, activists planned a violent response,arming themselves with knives, bars, flack jacketsand more. After they attacked the IDF soldiers, the soldiers were forced to respond in self-defense,killing 9 and wounding 34.

In the meantime, humanitarian support can be delivered via the Ashdod Port or

through Egypt.

In the meantime, humanitarian support can be delivered via the Ashdod Port or

through Egypt.




43

Technology

Democracy

Robust Economy

Qualitative

Manpower

GDP:

Population:

$28,400

7,587,000

Israeli Security ChallengesIsrael: The Qualitative Edge

Israel was established on the basis of UNSCR 181 (Nov. 1947)

“The Land of Israel was the birthplace of the Jewish people. Here their spiritual, religious and political identity was shaped. Here they first attained statehood, created cultural values of national and universal significance and gave to the world the eternal Book of Books. […]

Impelled by this historic and traditional attachment, Jews strove in every successive generation to reestablish themselves in their ancient homeland…they made deserts bloom, revived the Hebrew language, built villages and towns, and created a thriving community, controlling its own community and culture, loving peace but knowing how to defend itself. […]

The State of Israel will foster the development of the country for the benefit of its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace as envisioned by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex; it will guarantee freedom of religion, conscience, language education and culture. […]

We extend our hand to all neighboring states and their peoples in an offer of peace and good neighborliness, and appeal to them to establish bonds of cooperation and mutual help with the sovereign Jewish people settled in its own land.

The Declaration of Independence

14/05/48

Documents

| For Official Use Only Military-Strategic Information Section Strategic Division // Israel Defense Forces 1 September 20, 2015 Israel’s Security Challenges