Floridaedr.state.fl.us/content/presentations/long-range...Florida’s average annual wage has typically been below the US average. The most recent data for the 2018 calendar year showed

The Florida LegislatureOffice of Economic and

Demographic Research850.487.1402http://edr.state.fl.us

Presented by:

Florida:Long-Range Financial Outlook

September 12, 2019

1

Long-Range Financial Outlook

Thirteenth document prepared since the constitutional requirement passed ~ nearly 100 Analysts were involved in the process

over the Summer months

Fiscal Years Addressed2020-212021-222022-23

Revenue DriversBased on National and Florida

Economic Forecasts;Population Growth

Budget DriversBased on Estimating Conferences;

Past Legislative Actions; and Three-Year Averages

Population Growth Slowing Slightly... Population growth is the state’s primary engine of economic growth, fueling

both employment and income growth.

Florida’s population grew by 1.74% between April 1, 2017 and April 1, 2018 to 20,840,568, adding 356,426 residents. This growth was bolstered by the in-migration of Puerto Ricans and US Virgin Islanders as a result of the 2017 hurricane season.

Over the next four years, Florida’s population growth is expected to remain at or above 1.45%, averaging 1.6% between 2018 and 2022. Most of Florida’s population growth through 2030 will be from net migration (99.4%).

Nationally, average annual growth will be about 0.67% between 2018 and 2030.

The future will be different than the past; Florida’s long-term growth rate between 1970 and 1995 was over 3%.

Florida is currently the third most populous state, behind California and Texas.

2

Economy Has Continued Growth...

In the 2018 calendar year, the state’s growth strengthened and remained above the national average (3.5% versus 2.9%). The Estimating Conference projects that Florida’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will slow to growth of 2.5% in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and continue slowing in the near term to 1.8% in Fiscal Year 2023-24. In the longer term, growth is expected to average 2.0% per year.

For the first quarter of the 2019 calendar year, Florida posted growth of 2.9%, falling below the national average of 3.1% and ranking the state 23rd in the country for real growth.2.9%

6.5%

-5.6%

3.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Year-Over-Year Growth in FL and US Real GDP

US Growth FL Growth

3

FL Personal Income Growth Is Strong, Driven in Part by Robust Population Growth...

In the latest revised data for State Personal Income for the 2017 calendar year, Florida’s personal income growth increased to 5.0% over the prior year, compared to national growth of 4.4%. For 2018, Florida’s growth increased again to 5.2% compared to the national average of 4.5%. In the near term, the annual growth rates for the state are expected to drift from 5.2% (FY 2019-20) down to 4.2% (FY 2022-23), and then straddle 4.2% for the remainder of the forecast horizon.

In spite of the robust year-over-year growth, Florida’s per capita personal income growth trailed the nation in performance in 2017 and 2018, growing only 3.6% in 2018 compared to the national average of 3.8%.

The first quarter results for the 2019 calendar year indicated that Florida ranked 4th in the country with 5.1% growth over the prior quarter. The state was well above the United States as a whole, which had 3.4% growth. Healthcare and social assistance was the leading contributor to the earnings increase, and the increase in transfer receipts was greater than the overall net earnings change.

4

Florida’s average annual wage has typically been below the US average. The most recent data for the 2018 calendar year showed that Florida’s average wage, relative to the US average, continued to fall from 2016 when it was 87.7% to 87.4% in 2018. The ratio in 2014 (87.2%) was Florida’s lowest percentage since 2001.

In part, the lower than average wage gains has to do with the mix of jobs that have been growing the fastest in Florida and their average wages. For example, the Accommodation & Food Services employment sector is large, has the lowest average annual wage and had until recently been growing faster than overall employment in the state. This industry sector is closely related to the health of Florida’s tourism industry that had a record 128.5 million visitors in FY 2018-19, an increase of 5.8% over FY 2017-18. Effectively, these visitors were equivalent to 2.2 million additional people being added to Florida’s resident population.

Wage Gap Increased in 2018…

5

Current Employment Conditions Strong…

July Nonfarm Jobs (YOY)US 1.5%FL 2.6%YR: 227,200 jobsPeak: +956,400 jobs[Prior Employment Peak passed in May 2015]

July Unemployment RateUS 3.7%FL 3.3% (343,900 jobless persons)

The Revenue Estimating Conference assumes Florida has fallen below the “full employment” unemployment rate (about 4 percent).

Highest Monthly Rate11.3% (January 2010)

Lowest Monthly Rate3.1% (March 2006)

6

Only Part of Housing Market is Back to Normal...

7

Existing Home market is back to normal for both volume and sales.

o Existing home sales volume in each of the last five calendar years (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018) exceeded the 2005 peak year. This year (2019) is on course to do the same. While Florida’s existing home price gains have roughly tracked national gains over the last four years, the state’s median home price for single family homes has generally stayed upwardly steady as the national median peaks and dips. As Florida’s median price has been increasing, the national median has increased even more; the state’s median price in July was only 94.4% of the national median price. It exceeded Florida’s prior peak (June 2006) in June 2018 for the first time and has hovered close to that level since.

Homeownership rate is below normal.

o Since 2013, Florida has been below its long-run average homeownership rate. Final data for 2018 shows a small improvement from 64.1% in 2017 (the lowest recorded point) to 65.5%. However, preliminary data for the second quarter of the 2019 calendar year has drifted back to 64.5%.

While most areas of commercial and consumer credit have significantly strengthened – residential credit for home purchases still remains somewhat difficult for consumers to access with a weighted average credit score of 731 and a LTV of 79% on all closed loans in July (virtually identical to one year earlier). Almost 89% of all conventional home purchase lending in July had credit scores that were 700 or above. Even so, the percent of all home sales that are financed is almost 61% in Florida (April 2019), up from 59% in July 2018.

Challenging housing costs and shifting preferences among Millennials have caused residential rental vacancies to tighten strongly over the last four years (2015 through 2018) as price pressure continues to build.

Permits Are Still Well Below Historic Norms…

Single-Family building permit activity, an indicator of new construction, remains in positive territory, beginning with strong back-to-back growth in both the 2012 and 2013 calendar years (over 30% in each year). The final data for the 2014 calendar year revealed significantly slowing (but still positive) activity—posting only 1.6% growth over the prior year. However, annual activity for the past four calendar years ran well above their individual periods a year prior; single family data was higher than the prior year by 20.3% in 2015, 11.1% in 2016, 13.5% in 2017, and 13.8% in 2018.

Despite the strong percentage growth rates in six of the last seven calendar years, the level is still low by historic standards – just over 63% of the long-run per capita level. The year-to-date data for the 2019 calendar year is running only slightly positive.

8

Economy Largely Recovered...Florida growth rates are generally returning to more typical levels and continue to show progress. The drags—particularly construction—are more persistent than past events, but the strength in tourism is compensating for this. In the various forecasts, normalcy was largely achieved by the end of FY 2016-17. Overall...

The national economy has been back to normal on nearly all measures; however, financial conditions are increasingly volatile as uncertainty over tariffs and concerns regarding growth abroad buffet expectations.

By the close of the 2018-19 fiscal year, most measures of the Florida economy had returned to or surpassed their prior peaks. All personal income metrics, nearly 60% of the employment measures, and the total tourism and domestic visitor

counts had exceeded their prior peaks. Other measures were posting solid year-over-year improvements, even if they were not yet back to peak

performance levels. Private nonresidential construction expenditures first passed their prior peak in FY 2016-17, but none of the key

residential construction measures pass their prior peaks in the forecast horizon, a significant slowdown from the forecasts adopted last year.

As July ended, the economy had been in expansion for more than a decade, marking the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. The current forecast does not anticipate a recession, but turning points are notoriously difficult to project. IHS Markit places the risk of a recession at 35% in 2020 and the New York Fed’s recession probability model identifies a similar percentage; however, the National Association for Business Economics’ June survey of economists indicate that the risk of recession rises to 60% by the end of 2020. Speaking more recently, Mark Zandi of Moody’s places the odds “very high”.

9

General Revenue Forecast

The August forecast reduces the March 2019 estimate by $451.6 million for FY 2019-20 and by $416.1 million in FY 2020-21, for a two-year reduction of $867.7 million. However, the prior General Revenue Financial Outlook Statement already took into account some of the adjustments, leaving a net positive change on the Outlook of $201.2 million. These numbers affect the revenues available for the budget being crafted for FY 2020-21. The Conference recognized that there is an elevated level of risk to the forecast due to the mature stage of the current economic expansion.

LR Growth: Averages 6%Forecast Growth: Drops from 4.3% to 3.2%, after

the decline in FY 2019-20

The past had tax increases associated with key revenue sources and stronger population growth.

8.4%

-2.5%

-8.7%

-12.8%

2.4%

4.8% 4.7%

7.2%

3.5%

5.7%

2.3%

4.5%5.5%

7.0%

-1.4%

4.3% 3.9% 3.8%3.1% 3.2%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24

General Revenue Growth Rates

Fiscal YearPost-Session

2019August 2019

Forecast Difference Incremental

Growth Growth2005-06 27074.8 27074.8 0 8.4%2006-07 26404.1 26404.1 0 -670.7 -2.5%2007-08 24112.1 24112.1 0 -2292.0 -8.7%2008-09 21025.6 21025.6 0.0 -3086.5 -12.8%2009-10 21523.1 21523.1 0.0 497.5 2.4%2010-11 22551.6 22551.6 0.0 1028.5 4.8%2011-12 23618.8 23618.8 0.0 1067.2 4.7%2012-13 25314.6 25314.6 0.0 1695.8 7.2%2013-14 26198.0 26198.0 0.0 883.4 3.5%2014-15 27681.1 27485.9 (195.2) 1287.9 5.7%2015-16 28325.4 28325.4 0.0 644.3 2.3%2016-17 29594.5 29,594.5 0.0 1269.1 4.5%2017-18 31218.2 31,218.2 0.0 1623.7 5.5%2018-19 33413.8 33,413.8 - 7.0%2019-20 33,394.9 32,943.3 (451.6) (470.5) -1.4%2020-21 34,779.4 34,363.3 (416.1) 1,420.0 4.3%2021-22 35,989.7 35,712.3 (277.4) 1,349.0 3.9%2022-23 37,120.8 37,074.5 (46.3) 1,362.2 3.8%2023-24 38,257.0 38,237.1 (19.9) 1,162.6 3.1%2024-25 39,467.0 1,229.9 3.2% 10

Households63.2%Tourists13.4%

Business23.5%

Contributions to General Revenue from Sales Tax (with CST)Collections in FY 2017-18, By Source

Florida-Based Downside RiskThe most recent sales tax forecast relies heavily on strong tourism growth. It assumes no events that have significant repercussions affecting tourism occur during the forecast window.

• Currently, tourism-related revenue losses pose the greatest potential risk to the economic outlook.

• Previous economic studies of disease outbreaks and natural or manmade disasters have shown that tourism demand is very sensitive to such events.

• A strong and strengthening dollar tends to have a chilling effect on international travel. The broad dollar is expected to remain elevated throughout the near-term forecast and is susceptible to trade tensions.

The Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research has just updated its empirical analysis of the various sources of the state’s sales tax collections. In Fiscal Year 2017-18, sales tax collections provided over $24.1 billion or 77.3% of Florida’s total General Revenue collections. Of this amount, an estimated 13.4% (over $3.22 billion) was attributable to purchases made by tourists.

11

Chart2

Contributions to General Revenue from Sales Tax (with CST)

Collections in FY 2017-18, By Source

Contributions to General Reveue from Sales Tax Collections in FY 2016-17, By Source

[CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME][VALUE]

HouseholdsTouristsBusiness0.631523497317560740.133559938453051970.23491656422938723

Final

Household Income$ 73,573.00FY 2017-18 Estimated GR Collections from Sales Tax

TOTAL TAXABLE EXPENDITURES PER HOUSEHOLD (UNADJUSTED)$ 22,443.00Households$15,015.7963.7%

Tourists$ 3,223.9613.7%

Factor for Underreporting of Expenditures1.52Business$ 5,320.9022.6%

Total$ 23,560.65

TAX RATE (GR's share)5.35%

TOTAL TAXES (GR) PER HOUSEHOLD$ 1,823.67

2017-18 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS8,233,816

Taxable Tourist Spending$ 60,308.99

Tourism Sales Tax to GR$ 3,223.96

Household CST Share39.51%

Industry CST Share60.49%

CST To GR$ 578.05

Household CST To GR$ 228.37

Total Collections to General Revenue$ 24,138.70

Total Collections less CST to General Revenue$ 23,560.65

FY 2017-18 Estimated GR Collections from Sales Tax with CST

Households$15,244.1663.2%

Tourists$ 3,223.9613.4%

Business$ 5,670.5823.5%

Total$ 24,138.70

Contributions to General Revenue from Sales Tax

Collections in FY 2017-18, By Source

Contributions to General Reveue from Sales Tax Collections in FY 2016-17, By Source

[CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE]

HouseholdsTouristsBusiness0.637324888105487820.136836788880304070.22583832301420814Contributions to General Revenue from Sales Tax (with CST) Collections in FY 2017-18, By Source

Contributions to General Reveue from Sales Tax Collections in FY 2016-17, By Source[CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME][VALUE][CATEGORY NAME][VALUE]

HouseholdsTouristsBusiness0.631523497317560740.133559938453051970.23491656422938723

GR Outlook Balance for FY 2019-20

A projected remaining balance of $1.45 billion in nonrecurring dollars is assumed to be available for use in FY 2020-21.

12

REC N/R TOTAL2019-20 Ending Balance on Post-Session Outlook 437.3 617.4 1,054.7

-PLUS- 2018-19 Additional Revenues Above Forecast 0.0 573.8 573.8-PLUS- 2018-19 Miscellaneous Revenue Adjustments 0.0 53.7 53.7-MINUS- 2018-19 Miscellaneous Expenditure Adjustments 0.0 -0.3 -0.3

Sub-Total Adjustments Related to 2018-19 0.0 627.8 627.8

-PLUS- 2019-20 Forecast Changes 0.0 -104.9 -104.9-PLUS- 2019-20 Miscellaneous Revenue Adjustments 0.0 -8.1 -8.1-MINUS- 2019-20 Impact from Reappropriations 0.0 85.7 85.7-MINUS- 2019-20 Budget Amendments -- Bridge Loans 0.0 9.0 9.0-MINUS- 2019-20 Budget Amendments -- Hurricane Michael 0.0 21.9 21.9

Sub-Total Adjustments Related to 2019-20 0.0 -229.6 -229.6

Subtotal of Combined Adjustments - 398.2 398.2

ADJUSTED BALANCE 437.3 1015.6 1452.9

TIER 1 Issues

LONG-RANGE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

TIER 1 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS

GENERAL REVENUE FUNDS AVAILABLE PROJECTION

($ MILLIONS)

Fiscal Year 2019-20Fiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23

RecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotal

1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.01,229.51,229.50.01,924.71,924.7

3Unused Reserve from Prior Year0.00.00.00.00.00.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

4General Revenue Outlook Statement Components

5Revenue Estimate34,005.4(1,062.1)32,943.335,067.8(704.5)34,363.336,183.7(471.4)35,712.337,189.6(115.1)37,074.5

6BP Settlement Agreement26.70.026.726.70.026.726.70.026.726.70.026.7

7Prior Year Indian Gaming State Liability for Local Distribution0.0(7.2)(7.2)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

8FEMA Reimbursement0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

9Nonoperating Funds and Authorized Trust Fund Transfers(3.3)439.3436.0(1.2)96.995.7(1.4)96.995.5(1.7)96.995.2

10Revenue Adjustments to the General Revenue Fund

11Continuing Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

12Recurring Impact of Prior Years' Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

13Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

14Trust Fund Transfers (GAA)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

15Total Funds Available34,028.81,574.035,602.835,093.3845.335,938.636,209.01,855.038,064.037,214.62,906.540,121.1

16

17Estimated Expenditures:

18Recurring Base Budget (Including Annualizations)32,914.70.032,914.732,914.70.032,914.732,914.70.032,914.7

19Recurring Impact of Prior Years' New Issues0.00.00.0566.00.0566.01,631.60.01,631.6

20

21New Issues by GAA Section:

22Section 2 - Pre K-12 Education12,868.2(67.3)12,800.9294.4(181.7)112.8372.30.0372.3345.90.0345.9

23Section 2 - Higher Education4,642.222.34,664.5(48.8)0.0(48.8)(27.1)0.0(27.1)(24.5)0.0(24.5)

24Section 2 - Education Fixed Capital Outlay0.040.440.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

25Section 3 - Human Services10,129.466.510,195.9190.10.0190.1545.00.0545.0317.80.0317.8

26Section 4 - Criminal Justice4,013.973.54,087.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

27Section 7 - Judicial Branch458.01.7459.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28Section 5 & 6 - Transportation & Economic Development70.1132.0202.10.0280.9280.90.0254.4254.40.0138.1138.1

29Section 5 - Natural Resources151.9380.6532.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

30Section 6 - General Government239.370.3309.60.131.431.50.133.333.40.135.135.2

31Section 2 & 6 - Administered Funds - Statewide Issues317.3331.9649.1130.20.0130.2175.30.6175.9183.312.8196.1

32Total New Issues566.0130.6696.61,065.6288.31,353.9822.7186.01,008.7

33

34Approved Budget Amendments0.030.930.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

35Current Year Estimating Conference Operating Deficits0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

36Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund0.091.291.20.097.897.80.00.00.00.071.071.0

37Transfer to Lawton Chiles Endowment Fund0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0304.7304.70.00.00.0

38Reappropriations0.085.785.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

39Total Estimated Expenditures32,890.41,259.534,149.933,480.7228.433,709.134,546.3593.035,139.335,368.9257.035,625.9

40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,612.6(383.1)1,229.51,662.7262.01,924.71,845.71,649.53,495.2

2,454.365.9%3,226.0

1,613.0

Reseve %2.91%

&"Arial,Bold"&12&KFF0000DRAFT as of &D &T

&Z&F&D &T

TIER 2 Issues


TIER 2 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS AND OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS


($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.0174.2174.20.00.00.0













15Total Funds Available34,028.81,574.035,602.835,093.3845.335,938.636,209.0799.737,008.737,214.6981.838,196.4

16




20



23Section 2 - Higher Education4,642.222.34,664.5148.40.0148.4170.00.0170.0172.60.0172.6




27Section 7 - Judicial Branch458.01.7459.72.60.02.62.60.02.62.60.02.61.3





32Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

33






39Total Estimated Expenditures32,890.41,259.534,149.933,899.7864.834,764.435,383.91,235.236,619.136,637.5828.237,465.6

40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,193.6(1,019.5)174.2825.1(1,435.5)(610.4)577.1(846.4)(269.2)

1.80%9,631.6Three Year Stacking Total3,722.80Recurring Growth Over 18-19 Starting Point

2,454.6Three Year Nonrecurring Total11.3%% Incr from 18-19 Starting Point

25.5%Percent Nonrecurring

4,551.0

6,177.40TOTAL DRIVER GROWTH

7,177.0Three Year Stacking Recurring Total60.3%


&Z&F&D &T

TIER 3 Issues


TIER 3 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS, OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS, AND REVENUE ADJUSTMENTS


($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.0289.3289.30.00.00.0









11Continuing Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.0(105.8)51.3(54.5)(105.8)51.3(54.5)(105.8)51.3(54.5)

12Recurring Impact of Prior Years' Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.00.00.00.0(105.8)0.0(105.8)(211.6)0.0(211.6)

13Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.00.0(43.8)(43.8)0.0(43.8)(43.8)0.0(43.8)(43.8)


15Total Funds Available34,028.81,574.035,602.834,987.51,066.236,053.735,997.41,135.737,133.136,897.21,202.738,099.9

16




20












32Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

33







40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,087.8(798.5)289.3613.5(1,099.5)(486.0)259.7(625.4)(365.7)

0.84%

614.51,854.6846.6

-121.9


&Z&F&D &T

Timing Scenario A

Timing Scenario A - Clear Budget Shortfalls in Both Fiscal Years 2021-22 and 2022-23 by Taking Smoothed Actions Over Three Years




($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,460.11,460.10.0296.4296.40.00.00.0













15




19












31Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

32







39

40Adjustments to Balance0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

41Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

42Ending Balance1,138.4321.71,460.11,087.8(791.4)296.4613.5(1,092.4)(478.9)259.7(625.4)(365.7)

86.6

-208.5

&Z&F&D &T

Timing Scenario B

Timing Scenario B - Clear Recurring Budget Shortfall in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and Improve Shortfall in Fiscal Year 2020-21 by Taking Smoothed Actions Over Two Years




($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,460.11,460.10.0869.6869.60.01,545.31,545.3













15




19












31Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

32






38

39Adjustments to Balance(573.2)0.0(573.2)(573.1)0.0(573.1)0.00.00.0

40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4321.71,460.11,661.0(791.4)869.61,759.8(214.5)1,545.31,406.0919.92,325.9

879.9

&Z&F&D &T

Timing-Year 2





($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,460.11,460.10.0296.4296.40.00.00.0












14




18












30Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

31






37

38Adjustments to Balance0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

39Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

40Ending Balance1,138.4321.71,460.11,087.8(791.4)296.4613.5(787.7)(174.2)259.7(625.4)(365.7)

306.8-393.9-87.186.6-208.5

&Z&F&D &T

Major Trust Funds

EDUCATIONAL ENHANCEMENT TRUST FUND ($ MILLIONS)


Funds Available:RecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotal

Balance Forward0.0199.1199.10.0137.8137.80.062.362.30.063.263.2

Revenue Estimate2,032.20.02,032.22,075.60.02,075.62,102.10.02,102.12,126.20.02,126.2

Nonoperating Funds0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Total Funds Available2,032.2199.12,231.32,075.6137.82,213.42,102.162.32,164.42,126.263.22,189.4

Estimated Expenditures:

Base Budget1,968.40.01,968.42,075.60.02,075.62,101.30.02,101.3

Increase/Decrease107.275.5182.725.70.025.724.20.024.2

Total Estimated Expenditures1,968.4118.22,086.62,075.675.52,151.12,101.30.02,101.32,125.50.02,125.5

Bright Futures Expenditures Adjustment6.96.9

Ending Balance63.874.0137.80.062.362.30.862.363.20.763.263.9

Reserve Percentage of Revenue3.0%3.0%3.0%

STATE SCHOOL TRUST FUND ($ MILLIONS)



Balance Forward0.0151.8151.80.0111.0111.00.04.84.80.04.94.9

Revenue Estimate132.20.0132.2160.60.0160.6164.50.0164.5173.40.0173.4


Total Funds Available133.7151.8285.5162.1111.0273.1166.04.8170.8174.94.9179.8


Base Budget118.60.0118.6162.10.0162.1165.90.0165.9


Total Estimated Expenditures118.655.9174.5162.1106.2268.3165.90.0165.9174.60.0174.6

Ending Balance15.195.9111.00.04.84.80.14.84.90.34.95.2


TOBACCO SETTLEMENT TRUST FUND ($ MILLIONS)



Balance Forward0.033.533.50.059.059.00.010.910.90.011.011.0

Revenue Estimate360.50.0360.5362.80.0362.8368.10.0368.1373.80.0373.8




Base Budget341.20.0341.2369.20.0369.2374.70.0374.7


Forecast Adjustment to Medicaid26.648.174.73.90.03.94.20.04.2


Ending Balance25.533.559.00.010.910.90.110.911.00.311.011.3


LAND ACQUISITION TRUST FUND ($ MILLIONS)



Balance Forward0.00.093.293.2135.2135.2205.8205.8

Revenue Estimate859.9859.9893.5893.5925.8925.8959.3959.3

Non-operating Funds0.00.00.00.0

Total Funds Available859.90.0859.9893.593.2986.7925.8135.21,061.0959.3205.81,165.1


Base Budget637.0637.0637.0637.0637.0637.0

Increase/Decrease214.5214.50.0218.1218.10.0218.1218.1


Ending Balance222.9(129.7)93.2256.5(121.3)135.2288.8(83.0)205.8322.3(12.3)310.0


STATE ECONOMIC ENHANCEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT TRUST FUND ($ MILLIONS)



Balance Forward82.082.05.45.42.72.70.00.0

Revenue Estimate75.040.0

Trexler, Alicia: Trexler, Alicia:STTF Transfers authorized in HB 1A115.075.075.075.075.075.075.0

Non-operating Funds (Interest)0.04.04.04.04.04.04.0



Base Budget81.781.781.781.781.781.7



Ending Balance(6.7)12.15.4(2.7)5.42.7(2.7)2.70.0(2.7)0.0(2.7)

Reserve Percentage of Revenue3.7%0.1%-3.5%

Unobligated Cash Balance 2017-18

LATF Balance Forward

DACS18.0

DEP297.7

FWCC3.8

DOS2.8

Total Balance Forward322.2

Deduct Carry Forward-350.9

Add Back June Reversions10.3

Add Back FCO Reversions6.6

Remaining Balance-11.8

Unobligated Cash Balance 2017-18

SEED TF Balance Forward129.6

Deduct Carry Forward-47.9

Add Back June Reversions0.4

Add Back FCO Reversions0.0

Remaining Balance82.0


Expenditures All Sections

Planned Expenditures from Estimated Funds- All Sections

($ millions)

Recurring ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-233-Year Total

General Revenue32,890.432,890.432,914.732,914.7

annualization35.3985.02,469.23,489.5

change from drivers985.01,484.21,253.63,722.8

growth over prior year1,020.31,473.21,253.6

Educational Enhancement TF1,968.41,968.41,968.41,968.4

annualization0.0107.2132.9

change from drivers107.225.724.2157.1

growth over prior year107.225.724.2(2,125.5)157.1

State School TF118.6118.6118.6118.6



growth over prior year43.53.88.7

Tobacco Settlement TF341.2341.2341.2341.2



growth over prior year1.41.61.7

TOTAL35,318.636,490.937,995.339,283.4

recurring growth over prior year1,172.31,504.31,288.13,964.8

Nonrecurring ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-233-Year Total

General Revenue1,259.5864.81,235.2828.22,928.1

Educational Enhancement TF118.275.50.00.075.5

State School TF55.9106.20.00.0106.2

Tobacco Settlement TF0.048.10.00.048.1

TOTAL1,433.61,094.61,235.2828.23,157.9

TOTAL ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-233-Year Total

General Revenue34,149.934,775.436,619.137,465.6

minus nonrecurring(1,259.5)(864.8)(1,235.2)(3,359.5)

plus annualization35.3985.02,469.23,489.5

plus driver impact1,751.92,719.42,010.76,482.1

plus BSF impact97.80.071.0168.8

growth over prior year625.51,843.6846.63,315.7

Educational Enhancement TF2,086.62,151.12,101.32,125.5

minus nonrecurring(118.2)(75.5)0.0(193.7)

plus annualization0.0107.2132.9240.0

plus driver impact182.725.724.2232.6

growth over prior year64.5(49.8)24.238.9

State School TF174.5268.3165.9174.6608.8

minus nonrecurring(55.9)(106.2)0.0(162.1)




Tobacco Settlement TF341.2390.7344.2345.81,080.7

minus nonrecurring0.0(48.1)0.0(48.1)




TOTAL36,752.237,585.539,230.440,111.6

growth over prior year833.21,645.0881.13,359.3

check GRERROR:#REF!34,873.236,619.137,536.6

ERROR:#REF!108.80.071.0


3-year Impact 14-16

3-year Average

GR

CashRecur.

Total(394.0)(399.1)

Recurring Tax & Fee Impacts(194.1)(254.0)

1-year Only Tax and Fee Impacts(67.5)0.0

Other Adjustments To Revenue(132.4)(145.1)

2017-182018-192019-20

NRRecTotalNRRecTotalNR Rec Total

Recurring Tax & Fee Impacts59.9(254.0)(194.1)59.9(508.1)(448.1)59.9(762.1)(702.2)

1-year Only Tax and Fee Impacts(67.5)0.0(67.5)(67.5)0.0(67.5)(67.5)0.0(67.5)

Total(7.6)(254.0)(261.6)(7.6)(508.1)(515.7)(7.6)(762.1)(769.7)

---For the Plan: (rounding fixed by hardcoding)

2017-182018-192019-20

RecNRTotalRecNRTotalRec NR Total

Continuing Tax and Fee Changes(254.0)59.9(194.1)(254.0)59.9(194.1)(254.0)59.9(194.1)

Recurring Impact of Prior Years' Tax and Fee Changes0.00.00.0(254.0)0.0(254.0)(508.0)0.0(508.0)

Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes0.0(67.5)(67.5)0.0(67.5)(67.5)0.0(67.5)(67.5)

Trust Fund Transfers (GAA)0.0242.5242.50.0242.5242.50.0242.5242.5

Total(254.0)234.9(19.1)(508.0)234.9(273.1)(762.0)234.9(527.1)

2014-152015-162016-17


Continuing Tax and Fee Changes(450.0)97.8(352.2)(248.7)24.3(224.4)(63.4)57.7(5.7)

Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes0.0(48.6)(48.6)0.0(117.4)(117.4)0.0(36.6)(36.6)

Total(450.0)49.2(400.8)(248.7)(93.1)(341.8)(63.4)21.1(42.3)

Three-Year Average

RecNRTotal

Continuing Tax and Fee Changes(254.0)59.9(194.1)

Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes0.0(67.5)(67.5)

Total(254.0)(7.6)(261.6)

2017-182018-192019-20


Year 1 Annual Effects(254.0)59.9(194.1)(254.0)0.0(254.0)(254.0)0.0(254.0)

Year 2 Annual Effects- 0- 0- 0(254.0)59.9(194.1)(254.0)0.0(254.0)

Year 3 Annual Effects- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0(254.0)59.9(194.1)

Total(254.0)59.9(194.1)(508.0)59.9(448.1)(762.0)59.9(702.1)

Revenue Adjustments

General Revenue Adjustments

($ millions)

Recurring ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-23

Revenue Estimate34,005.435,067.836,183.737,189.6

BP Settlement Agreement26.726.726.726.7

Release of Indian Gaming Reserve0.00.00.00.0

Nonoperating Funds(3.3)(1.2)(1.4)(1.7)

change from tax and significant fee changes

• continuing tax and fee changes(105.8)(105.8)(105.8)

• recurring impact of prior years' tax and fee changes0.0(105.8)(211.6)

• time-limited tax and fee changes0.00.00.0

change from trust fund transfers (GAA)0.00.00.0

Balance Forward from Prior Year0.00.00.00.0

Unused Reserve from Prior Year0.00.00.00.0

TOTAL34,028.834,987.535,997.436,897.2

net change from revenue adjustments(105.8)(211.6)(317.4)

Nonrecurring ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-23

Revenue Estimate(1,062.1)(704.5)(471.4)(115.1)


FEMA Reimbursements0.00.00.00.0

Nonoperating Funds439.396.996.996.9


• continuing tax and fee changes51.351.351.3

• time-limited tax and fee changes(43.8)(43.8)(43.8)

change from trust fund transfers (GAA)0.0213.4213.4213.4

Balance Forward from Prior Year2,204.01,452.9289.30.0

Unused Reserve from Prior Year0.00.01,000.01,000.0

TOTAL1,581.21,066.21,135.71,202.7

net change from revenue adjustments220.9220.9220.9

TOTAL ($ millions)2019-202020-212021-222022-23

Revenue Estimate32,943.334,363.335,712.337,074.5


FEMA Reimbursements0.00.00.00.0

Nonoperating Funds436.095.795.595.2


• continuing tax and fee changes(54.5)(54.5)(54.5)

• recurring impact of prior years' tax and fee changes0.0(105.8)(211.6)

• time-limited tax and fee changes(43.8)(43.8)(43.8)

change from trust fund transfers (GAA)0.0213.4213.4213.4

Balance Forward from Prior Year2,204.01,452.9289.30.0

Unused Reserve from Prior Year0.00.01,000.01,000.0

TOTAL GR Available35,610.036,053.737,133.138,099.9

net change from revenue adjustments115.19.3(96.5)


GR Forecast Compare

Fiscal YearPost-Session ForecastAugust ForecastDifference (Aug - PS)Incremental GrowthGrowthFiscal YearPost-Session ForecastAugust ForecastDifference (Aug - PS)Incremental GrowthGrowth

2005-0627,074.88.4%2005-0627,074.88.4%

2006-0726,404.1-2.5%2006-0726,404.1-2.5%

2007-0824,112.1-8.7%2007-0824,112.1-8.7%

2008-0921,025.6-12.8%2008-0921,025.6-12.8%

2009-1021,523.12.4%2009-1021,523.12.4%

2010-1122,551.64.8%2010-1122,551.64.8%

2011-1223,618.84.7%2011-1223,618.84.7%

2012-1325,314.67.2%2012-1325,314.67.2%

2013-1426,198.03.5%2013-1426,198.03.5%

2014-1527,681.15.7%2014-1527,681.15.7%

2015-1628,325.42.3%2015-1628,325.42.3%

2016-1729,594.54.5%2016-1729,594.54.5%

2017-1831,218.231,278.860.61,684.35.5%2017-1831,218.231,278.860.61,684.35.5%

2018-1933,413.833,413.8- 02,135.07.0%2018-1933,413.833,413.8- 02,135.07.0%

2019-2033,394.932,943.3(451.6)(470.5)-1.4%2019-2033,394.932,943.3(451.6)(470.5)-1.4%

2020-2134,779.434,363.3(416.1)1,420.04.3%2020-2134,779.434,363.3(416.1)1,420.04.3%

2021-2235,989.735,712.3(277.4)1,349.03.9%2021-2235,989.735,712.3(277.4)1,349.03.9%

2022-2337,120.837,074.5(46.3)1,362.23.8%2022-2337,120.837,074.5(46.3)1,362.23.8%

2023-2438,257.038,237.1(19.9)1,162.63.1%2023-2438,257.038,237.1(19.9)1,162.63.1%

2024-25n/a39,467.0n/a1,229.93.2%2024-25n/a39,467.0n/a1,229.93.2%

Notes:

Post-session forecast = July or August Outlook revenue collections for prior years

For current year and forward, use Post Session Outlook (incl measures) then compare to new July/August forecast Outlook

FY 2019-20 GAA

33,94258.4%General Revenue

24,18041.6%State Trust

58,122State Source

General Revenue Growth Rates

2005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-248.4000000000000005E-2-2.4772112813391079E-2-8.6804700785105354E-2-0.128006270710556122.3661631534890801E-24.7785867277483268E-24.7322584650313096E-27.1798736599657867E-23.489685793968704E-25.6611191694022386E-22.3275809126082524E-24.4804309912657846E-25.4864924225785219E-27.0330768590117373E-2-1.4081008445612291E-24.3104364165095783E-23.9256998018234568E-23.8143720790875892E-23.1358480896573074E-23.2165096202379402E-2

Summary Tables

DOLLAR VALUE OF CRITICAL AND OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS

GENERAL REVENUE FUNDFiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23

Total Tier 1 - Critical Needs696.61,353.91,008.7

Total - Other High Priority Needs1,055.31,060.81,002.1

Total Tier 2 - Critical and Other High Priority Needs1,751.92,414.72,010.7

GENERAL REVENUE FUND

DOLLAR VALUE OF CRITICAL AND

OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS BY POLICY AREA

POLICY AREASFiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-233-Year TotalShare of Total

Pre K-12 Education138.5398.0371.7908.314.7%

Higher Education148.4170.0172.6491.07.9%

Education Fixed Capital Outlay21.033.00.054.00.9%

Human Services332.7687.6460.11,480.424.0%

Criminal Justice98.897.697.6294.04.8%

Judicial Branch2.62.62.67.80.1%

Transportation & Economic Development432.6402.3287.71,122.618.2%

Natural Resources277.2277.7273.2828.113.4%

General Government97.097.176.2270.34.4%

Administered Funds - Statewide Issues203.1248.8269.0721.011.7%

Total New Issues1,751.92,414.72,010.76,177.4

2,603.042.1%HHS Transp Total

GENERAL REVENUE FUND

POLICY AREA PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

CRITICAL AND OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS

POLICY AREASFiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23

Pre K-12 Education7.9%16.5%18.5%

Higher Education8.5%7.0%8.6%

Education Fixed Capital Outlay1.2%1.4%0.0%

Human Services19.0%28.5%22.9%

Criminal Justice5.6%4.0%4.9%

Judicial Branch0.1%0.1%0.1%

Transportation & Economic Development24.7%16.7%14.3%

Natural Resources15.8%11.5%13.6%

General Government5.5%4.0%3.8%

Administered Funds - Statewide Issues11.6%10.3%13.4%

Total New Issues100.0%100.0%100.0%

OUTLOOK PROJECTION – FISCAL YEAR 2020-21 (in millions)

RECURRINGNON RECURRINGTOTAL

AVAILABLE GENERAL REVENUE $35,093.3$845.3$35,938.6

Base Budget$32,914.7$0.0$32,914.7

Transfer to Lawton Chiles Endowment Fund$0.0$0.0$0.0

Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund$0.0$97.8$97.8

Critical Needs$566.0$130.6$696.6$33,709.1Base + Critical Needs

Other High Priority Needs$419.0$636.4$1,055.3$34,709.1Base + Critical Needs + Reserve

Reserve$0.0$1,000.0$1,000.0

TOTAL EXPENDITURES$33,899.7$1,864.8$35,764.4Base + Critical + Reserve + Other High Priority

TIER 2 ENDING BALANCE$1,193.6($1,019.5)$174.2

Revenue Adjustments($105.8)$220.9$115.1

TIER 3 ENDING BALANCE$1,087.8($798.5)$289.30.8%share of GR Revenue

Recurring Expenditures (Tier 2)Nonrecurring Expenditures (Tier 2)

Fiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23TOTALFiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23TOTAL

Pre K-12 Education320.2398.0371.71,089.9Pre K-12 Education-181.70.00.0

Higher Education148.4170.0172.6491.0Higher Education0.00.00.0

Education Fixed Capital Outlay0.00.00.00.0Education Fixed Capital Outlay21.033.00.0

Human Services253.1607.9380.71,241.8Human Services79.679.679.4

Criminal Justice76.476.476.4229.1Criminal Justice22.421.221.2

Judicial Branch2.62.62.67.8Judicial Branch0.00.00.0

Transportation & Economic Development0.00.00.00.0Transportation & Economic Development432.6402.3287.7

Natural Resources1.41.41.44.3Natural Resources275.8276.3271.8

General Government0.10.112.412.6General Government96.897.063.8

Administered Funds - Statewide Issues182.7227.8235.8646.3Administered Funds - Statewide Issues20.421.033.2

Total New Issues985.01484.21253.63,722.8Total New Issues767.0930.5757.2

Recurring and Nonrecurring Driver ImpactFiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23TOTALShare of Grand Total

New Recurring Drivers for Each Year985.01,484.21,253.63,722.8

Continuation of Year 1 Recurring Drivers985.0985.01,970.0

Continuation of Year 2 Recurring Drivers1,484.21,484.2

Cumulative Impact of Recurring Drivers985.02,469.23,722.87,177.074.5%

Nonrecurring Drivers by Year767.0930.5757.22,454.625.5%

Grand Total1,751.93,399.74,480.09,631.6

From FAIB:

2019-20 Appropriations

General Revenue33,942.137.3%

Other Trust Funds (Federal)32,865.636.1%

Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund341.20.4%

Educational Enhancement Trust Fund2,086.62.3%

Other Trust Funds (State)21,752.023.9%26.6%State TF share58,121.90

90,987.558.4%

2019 OutlookYear 1Year 2Year 3TOTAL 2018 OutlookDifference

Judicial Branch2.62.62.67.8- 07.761,480.4

Education Fixed Capital Outlay21.033.00.054.0299.8(245.81)1,122.6

General Government97.097.176.2270.3261.78.572,603.042.1%

Criminal Justice98.897.697.6294.0234.060.0525.7%

Higher Education148.4170.0172.6491.0714.3(223.28)6,177.4

Administered Funds - Statewide Issues203.1248.8269.0721.0902.8(181.79)

Natural Resources277.2277.7273.2828.1842.6(14.52)

Pre K-12 Education138.5398.0371.7908.3582.7325.5655.9%

Transportation & Economic Development432.6402.3287.71,122.6850.3272.2732.0%

Human Services332.7687.6460.11,480.41,402.677.785.5%

Total New Issues1,751.92,414.72,010.76,177.46,090.886.61.4%

DIFFERENCES

2018 Outlook2019 Outlook

Total Budget Drivers6,090.86,177.41.4%86.6

Pre K-12 Education582.7908.355.9%

Transportation & Economic Development850.31,122.632.0%

Health and Human Services1,402.61,480.45.5%

Criminal Justice234.0294.025.6%

Recurring/Nonrecurring Mix of General Revenue

Post-Session ForecastAugust ForecastDifference

RecurringNonrecurringRecurringNonrecurringRecurringNonrecurring

2017-18113.700272.5-113.7272.5

2018-19115.000280.1-115.0280.1

2019-20116.300283.8-116.3283.8

2020-21117.700287.6-117.7287.6

2021-22119.100291.4-119.1291.4

2022-23120.600295.2-120.6295.2

Year 1Year 2Year 3

Ongoing Expenses from FY 2019-2032,914.732,914.732,914.7

Continuing Impact of New Drivers from Prior Year- 0985.02,469.2

New Drivers that are Expected to Continue985.01,484.21,253.6

Sub-Total33,899.735,383.936,637.5

New Drivers for One-Time Expenses767.0930.5757.2

Required Transfers to BSF and LCEF Reserves97.8- 071.0

Sub-Total864.8930.5828.2

GRAND TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE EXPENDITURES34,764.436,314.437,465.6

Percent Annual Growth in Recurring Expenses3.0%4.4%3.5%

Percent Annual Growth in Total GR Expenditures1.8%4.5%3.2%

Percent Annual Growth in General Revenue Forecast3.4%3.6%3.7%

DOLLAR VALUE OF CRITICAL Needs

GENERAL REVENUE FUNDFY 2020-21FY 2021-22FY 2022-23

Total Tier 1 - Critical Needs696.61,353.91,008.7

APPROPRIATIONS BY FUND SOURCE

General RevenueOther Trust Funds (Federal)Tobacco Settlement Trust FundEducational Enhancement Trust FundOther Trust Funds (State)33942.132865.599999999999341.22086.621752

New General Revenue Infusion Over Three-Year Period

Comparison of 2018 and 2019 Outlooks

2018 Outlook

Total Budget DriversPre K-12 EducationTransportation & Economic DevelopmentHealth and Human ServicesCriminal Justice6090.8582.69999999999982850.31402.60000000000012342019 Outlook

Total Budget DriversPre K-12 EducationTransportation & Economic DevelopmentHealth and Human ServicesCriminal Justice6177.40487046908.264971338928941122.57198599999991480.3814984999999294

New General Revenue Infusion Over Three-Year Period

$6.18 Billion

Year 1Judicial BranchEducation Fixed Capital OutlayGeneral GovernmentCriminal JusticeHigher EducationAdministered Funds - Statewide IssuesNatural ResourcesPre K-12 EducationTransportation & Economic DevelopmentHuman Services2.586151999999999820.9970896.95764099999999598.816482666666687148.44446838637043203.14500200000001277.20914099999999138.53914357362959432.5594266666667332.69394650000004Year 2Judicial BranchEducation Fixed Capital OutlayGeneral GovernmentCriminal JusticeHigher EducationAdministered Funds - Statewide IssuesNatural ResourcesPre K-12 EducationTransportation & Economic DevelopmentHuman Services2.586151999999999832.99707999999999797.13857500000000397.616482666666684169.96973821416108248.830557277.70014099999997398.02749078583889402.27900466666665687.57002199999999Year 3Judicial BranchEducation Fixed Capital OutlayGeneral GovernmentCriminal JusticeHigher EducationAdministered Funds - Statewide IssuesNatural ResourcesPre K-12 EducationTransportation & Economic DevelopmentHuman Services2.5861519999999998076.17858900000000297.616482666666684172.60727402053951269.03055699999999273.17266699999999371.69833697946046287.73355466666669460.11752999999999

Total Tier 1 - Critical Needs

FY 2020-21FY 2021-22FY 2022-23696.61353.88046799999981008.6646820000001

dollars in millions

Current Year Adjusts

FY 2018-19 Current Year Deficits1.7

Kid Care1.7includes $0.4 million deficit carried forward from 2017-18 and $1.3 million for 18-19

0.0

FY 2018-19 Current Year Budget Amendments0.00

Campaign Finance Matching0.00$144,209, B0157 dated 8/23


Compare Outlooks

Fiscal Year 2020-212018 Outlook2019 OutlookDifferenceEffect on Bottom Line

Funds Available in Tier 3

Balance Forward from 2019-201,223.41,452.9229.5Positive

Available General Revenue Adjusted by Measures34,565.434,485.7(79.7)Negative

Trust Fund Transfers392.5213.4(179.1)Negative

Continuing Tax and Fee Changes(46.3)(54.5)(8.2)Negative

Time-Limited Tax and Fee Changes(43.9)(43.8)0.1Positive

Total Funds Available36,091.136,053.7(37.4)Negative

-0.1%

Projected Expenditures

Base Budget for 2020-2132,786.332,914.7128.39Negative

Total New Budget Drivers for 2020-212,311.41,751.9(559.45)Positive

Total Projected Expenditures35,097.734,666.6(431.06)Positive

-1.2%

Additional Adjustments for Reserves

BSF Transfer41.297.856.60

Reserve1,000.01,000.0- 0

Bottom Line(47.8)289.3337.06

(adjusted by AJB)

PPT

REVENUE ADJUSTMENTS

RECN/RTOTAL35088.0Post-Session34033.3Post-Session1054.7

2019-20 Ending Balance on Post-Session Outlook437.3617.41,054.735602.8August Final34149.9August Final1452.9

-PLUS- 2018-19 Additional Revenues Above Forecast0.0573.8573.8514.8116.6398.2

-PLUS- 2018-19 Miscellaneous Revenue Adjustments0.053.753.7

-MINUS- 2018-19 Miscellaneous Expenditure Adjustments0.0-0.3-0.3

Sub-Total Adjustments Related to 2018-19 0.0627.8627.8OK1576.2Post-Session34027.8Post-Session

2204.0August Final33942.1August Final

-PLUS- 2019-20 Forecast Changes0.0-104.9-104.9627.8-85.7

-PLUS- 2019-20 Miscellaneous Revenue Adjustments0.0-8.1-8.1

-MINUS- 2019-20 Impact from Reappropriations0.085.785.733048.2Post-Session91.2Post-Session

-MINUS- 2019-20 Budget Amendments -- Bridge Loans0.09.09.032943.3August Final91.2August Final

-MINUS- 2019-20 Budget Amendments -- Hurricane Michael0.021.921.9-104.90.0

Sub-Total Adjustments Related to 2019-200.0-229.6-229.6

463.6Post-Session91.2Post-Session

Subtotal of Combined Adjustments- 0398.2398.20.0check455.5August Final91.2August Final

-8.10.0

EXPENDITURE ADJUSTMENTS

-113.0

ADJUSTED BALANCE437.31015.61452.9514.8

BALANCE FOR LONG-RANGE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK1,452.9

END OF YEAR ADJUSTS & FORECAST CHANGESPost Session OutlookAugust OutlookDIFFERENCEOUTLOOK IMPACT

RECN/RTotalRECN/RTotalRECN/RTotalRECN/RTotal

17-18 Revenue - Fed Funds Interest Rebate-0.70.0-0.7-0.30.0-0.30.40.00.40.00.40.4

17-18 FCO Reversions0.02.02.00.02.32.30.00.30.30.00.30.3

17-18 Approps30,705.91,063.631,769.530,705.9931.731,637.60.0-131.9-131.90.0-131.9-131.9

18-19 Approps31,774.21,096.332,870.531,774.11,228.233,002.3-0.1131.9131.80.1131.8131.9

18-19 Estimated Reversions0.097.997.90.097.797.70.0-0.2-0.20.0-0.2-0.2

Outlook Results Table

Multi-Tier Comparison


($ MILLIONS)

Fiscal Year 2020-21Fiscal Year 2021-22Fiscal Year 2022-23

RecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotalRecurringNon-recurringTotal

Ending Balance Tier 1...Critical Needs$1,612.6($383.1)$1,229.5$1,662.7$262.0$1,924.7$1,845.7$1,649.5$3,495.2

Ending Balance Tier 2...Critical Needs & Other High Priorities$1,193.6($1,019.5)$174.2$825.1($1,435.5)($610.4)$577.1($846.4)($269.2)

Ending Balance Tier 3…All Needs Plus Revenue Adjustments$1,087.8($798.5)$289.3$613.5($1,099.5)($486.0)$259.7($625.4)($365.7)

Scenarios Summary

Tier 3 Projected Ending BalancesTiming Scenario ATiming Scenario B

FY 2017-18FY 2017-18FY 2017-18

Adjustment and Revised Ending BalanceAdjustment and Revised Ending BalanceAdjustment and Revised Ending Balance

RecurringNonrecurringTotalRecurringNonrecurringTotalRecurringNonrecurringTotal

Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.(573.2)0.0(573.2)

End Bal1,087.8(798.5)289.3End Bal1,087.8(791.4)296.4End Bal1,661.0(791.4)869.6

FY 2018-19FY 2018-19FY 2018-19



Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.(573.1)0.0(573.1)

End Bal613.5(787.7)(174.2)End Bal613.5(1,092.4)(478.9)End Bal1,759.8(214.5)1,545.3

FY 2019-20FY 2019-20FY 2019-20



Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.0.00.00.0Adj.0.00.00.0

End Bal259.7(625.4)(365.7)End Bal259.7(625.4)(365.7)End Bal1,406.0919.92,325.9

Total State Reserves Are Solid...

Unallocated General Revenue, the Budget Stabilization Fund, and the Lawton Chiles Endowment Fund are generally considered to compose the state’s reserves.

At the time of adoption for each of the previous seven Outlooks, total state reserves have ranged from 10.7% to 12.9% of the General Revenue estimate.

For the current year, total state reserves are $3,800.7 million or 11.5% of the General Revenue estimate for FY 2019-20. This amount is the highest it has been in the past ten years.

13

Outlook YearBaseline Fiscal

Year

Unallocated General Revenue

Budget Stabilization

Fund

Lawton Chiles Endowment

Fund*Total

Reserves

GR Summer Revenue Estimate*

% of GR Estimate

2011 2011-12 1,357.5 493.6 696.2 2,547.3 23,795.1 10.7%2012 2012-13 1,577.7 708.1 426.1 2,711.9 24,631.6 11.0%2013 2013-14 1,893.5 924.8 536.3 3,354.6 26,184.2 12.8%2014 2014-15 1,589.0 1,139.2 629.3 3,357.5 27,189.4 12.3%2015 2015-16 1,709.1 1,353.7 590.2 3,653.0 28,414.1 12.9%2016 2016-17 1,414.2 1,384.4 637.5 3,436.1 29,732.8 11.6%2017 2017-18 1,458.5 1,416.5 713.4 3,588.4 31,152.8 11.5%2018 2018-19 1,226.1 1,483.0 763.1 3,472.2 32,270.5 10.8%2019 2019-20 1,452.9 1,574.2 773.6 3,800.7 32,970.0 11.5%

*The Lawton Chiles Endowment Fund for Fiscal Year 2019-20 is the estimated market value as of August 27, 2019. The Summer Revenue Estimate reflects the General Revenue for Fiscal Year 2019-20 includes the official estimated revenues for General Revenue and the annual payment from the BP Settlement Agreement.

Tier 1 Drivers...Tier 1 – Includes only Critical Needs, which can generally be thought of as the absolute minimum the state must do absent significant law or structural changes. In some instances, they also present the lowest cost, within current policy parameters, of continuing essential government functions. In this Outlook, there are 15 Critical Needs drivers. Two types of funding strategies were deployed that significantly reduced the need for General Revenue in Tier 1 for Fiscal Year 2020-21.

14

o Because the Legislature has had an evolving policy regarding the appropriate split between state and local funds for the public school system, Driver #2 includes the impact of using the Legislature’s Fiscal Years 2018-19 and 2019-20 policy of increasing the Required Local Effort (RLE) each year by the value of additional new construction and maintaining the current year nonvoted discretionary millage. This allows RLE to increase with property tax revenue in a controlled manner. Permitting the increases in RLE and discretionary millage funding in Driver #2 decreases the need for state funding (as shown in the Critical Needs drivers) by $246.2 million in Fiscal Year 2020-21, $248.0 million in Fiscal Year 2021-22, and $254.1 million in Fiscal Year 2022-23.

o For the programs in the education and human services policy areas, the Outlook also maximizes the use of all available state trust funds prior to using General Revenue. To accomplish this, adjustments are made to General Revenue based on the projected balances forward and growth in the trust funds. This shifting of funds alters the need for General Revenue from year to year, but does not affect the overall level of dollars estimated to be required for core education and human services programs. Across both education policy areas, the effect of these fund shifts can be seen in two discrete drivers (#1 and #5) that together total $309.3 million in Fiscal Year 2020-21, $51.0 million in Fiscal Year 2021-22, and $51.5 million in Fiscal Year 2022-23.

1,008.7

1,353.9

696.6

- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0

FY 2022-23

FY 2021-22

FY 2020-21


Chart3


FY 2022-23FY 2021-22FY 2020-211008.66468200000011353.8804679999998696.6

TIER 1 Issues


TIER 1 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS


($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.01,229.51,229.50.01,924.71,924.7













15Total Funds Available34,028.81,574.035,602.835,093.3845.335,938.636,209.01,855.038,064.037,214.62,906.540,121.1

16




20



23Section 2 - Higher Education4,642.222.34,664.5(48.8)0.0(48.8)(27.1)0.0(27.1)(24.5)0.0(24.5)









32Total New Issues566.0130.6696.61,065.6288.31,353.9822.7186.01,008.7

33







40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,612.6(383.1)1,229.51,662.7262.01,924.71,845.71,649.53,495.2

2,454.365.9%3,226.0

1,613.0

Reseve %2.91%


&Z&F&D &T

TIER 2 Issues


TIER 2 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS AND OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS


($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.0174.2174.20.00.00.0













15Total Funds Available34,028.81,574.035,602.835,093.3845.335,938.636,209.0799.737,008.737,214.6981.838,196.4

16




20







27Section 7 - Judicial Branch458.01.7459.72.60.02.62.60.02.62.60.02.61.3





32Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

33







40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,193.6(1,019.5)174.2825.1(1,435.5)(610.4)577.1(846.4)(269.2)

1.80%9,631.6Three Year Stacking Total3,722.80Recurring Growth Over 18-19 Starting Point

2,454.6Three Year Nonrecurring Total11.3%% Incr from 18-19 Starting Point

25.5%Percent Nonrecurring

4,551.0

6,177.40TOTAL DRIVER GROWTH

7,177.0Three Year Stacking Recurring Total60.3%


&Z&F&D &T

TIER 3 Issues




($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,452.91,452.90.0289.3289.30.00.00.0














16




20












32Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

33







40Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

41Ending Balance1,138.4314.51,452.91,087.8(798.5)289.3613.5(1,099.5)(486.0)259.7(625.4)(365.7)

0.84%

614.51,854.6846.6

-121.9


&Z&F&D &T

Timing Scenario A

Timing Scenario A - Clear Budget Shortfalls in Both Fiscal Years 2021-22 and 2022-23 by Taking Smoothed Actions Over Three Years




($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,460.11,460.10.0296.4296.40.00.00.0













15




19












31Total New Issues985.0767.01,751.91,484.2930.52,414.71,253.6757.22,010.7

32







39

40Adjustments to Balance0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

41Reserves0.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.00.01,000.01,000.0

42Ending Balance1,138.4321.71,460.11,087.8(791.4)296.4613.5(1,092.4)(478.9)259.7(625.4)(365.7)

86.6

-208.5

&Z&F&D &T

Timing Scenario B





($ MILLIONS)



1Funds Available:

2Balance Forward0.02,204.02,204.00.01,460.11,460.10.0869.6869.60.01,545.31,545.3





7FEMA Reimbursement0.00.

Documents

Floridaedr.state.fl.us/content/presentations/long-range...Florida’s average annual wage has typically been below the US average. The most recent data for the 2018 calendar year showed