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Research motivation
Our study is intended to present disruptive and challenging events, i.e. wildcard scenarios, which have a significant impact on the aviation industry. We intended to assist decision and policy makers in preparing for the future and to enrich decision making processes on possible courses of action by presenting a robust and reliable decision support system as well as opportunities in strategy and policy.
Delphi methodology
We applied an innovative and improved evolution of the well-known conventional Delphi approach, which refutes specific shortcomings, e.g. expert panel biases or time scale disadvantages. Our approach enhances expert availability, reduces drop-out-rates, speeds up the hole process and adds additional functionalities like an ‘ease-of-use facilitator portal’, a ‘consensus portal’, and a ‘graphical real-time feedback’.
In order to assess disruptive events and transformations for the aviation industry we used our real-time Delphi tool for 40 projections on the aviation industry’s future 2025. The estimation of the projections’ probability of occurrence, potential impact on the industry and desirability was based on a survey among 57 aviation strategists, C-level executives, aviation researchers and consultants. Based on the assessments and more than 1,300 collected verbal arguments for the individual expert expectations, relevant extreme and wildcard scenarios have been deducted, enabling contingency planning and the preparation for unforeseeable and disruptive events
Delphi-based deductive wildcard analysis process
Inductive wildcard analysis process
Disruptive and challenging events – Wildcards
We systematically indentified disruptive and challenging events by our Delphi- and wildcard analysis based FTA process:1) Deglobalization, relocation and protectionism2) Energy revolution3) Revolution in transportation technologies/ concepts4) Era of virtual meetings5) Rise of the fabbing society6) Terrorism reloaded7) Global pandemic8) Natural catastrophes9) Economic crises, wars, oils price shocks
The “Aviation Opportunity Radar”
Our „Radar“ is the subjective outcome of several future workshops based on the examined scenarios. It is designed to provide a pragmatic but also creative perspective into the future, providing opportunities with different degrees of innovativeness.
Contact
Dr. Marco LinzEBS Business School, Center for Futures StudiesTel. +49 (0)611 7102 2148 • Fax +49 (0)611 7102 10 2148E-mail: [email protected]
Delphi based Wildcard Analysis
Note: The content of this publication is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s).
2011INTERNATIONALCONFERENCE
Collection of potential wildcards
Assessment of identified wildcards
Selection of relevant wildcards
Elaboration of wildcards
Development of possible strategies
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Development of wildcard scenarios
Identification of critical futures assumptions
Definition of alternative impact scenarios(inversion of assumptions)
Development of plausible scenario origins and paths
Elaboration of wildcards
Development of possible strategies
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