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Actor-network theory and futures-scenarios in UK Government

Using actor-network theory and the sociology of translation, this study set out to explore whether the participants of a scenario-planning exercise have certain interests and agendas that they are trying to push through that are different to the stated aims of the project. Secondly, it sought to explore whether the scenario-planning process is a neutral environment where all actors are equally able to voice their ideas and thoughts free from the influence of the other participants. However, the findings went well beyond these original aims and led to two recommendations.

The analysis applied the sociology of translation to trace the associations between the different actors involved a scenario-planning project entitled the ‘international futures project’. Here it was revealed that the project facilitator was able to assert himself as an obligatory passage point –the point through which all others must go through in order to have their own interests realised (see diagram below).

Secondly, although the scenario-planning environment is a neutral ground to begin with, the process of translation reveals that there are certain actors who are able to assert themselves as an obligatory passage point and hence influence the other actors involved to act in a way conducive to their own goals

Recommendations

Given these conclusions, two recommendations were made for the future of scenario-planning:

1.Democratise the scenario-planning process to include a greater number and diversity of participants

2.Make the process more transparent to highlight unspoken assumptions and emergent asymmetrical relations between the participants that may bias the outcomes.

The extent to which these two recommendations might be implemented then brings about four possible futures-scenarios about the future of scenario-planning:

It is argued that the most desired outcome, true to the traditional outcome of many scenario-planning exercises, is at the top right – where there is both the inclusion of a wider range of participants, and a process that is open so that it can be analysed and evaluated.

ContactFarzana DudhwalaUniversity of CambridgeTel. +44 774 9458797E-mail: fd259@cam.ac.uk

2011 INTERNATIONALCONFERENCE

The future of scenario-planning

Opening up the future to inspection

Conclusions

This analysis led to the conclusion that firstly, the participants of a scenario-planning exercise do not have inherent, immutable interests, but interests that are co-constructed alongside the scenarios via a process of transformation and translation