©Dr. Valentina M. BondarenkoLeading Researcher of the Institute of economics RAS

Director, International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation

Amsterdam, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam

2-3 october 2014 г.

“Transition to Crisis-Free Development:

A Myth or Reality?” Or “Where From the Innovative Breakthrough Is to Be

Expected?”

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The number of global threats and challenges to the Mankind is growing.

Leaders of the G-20 countries, who in 2008–2014 had quite a number of meetings at summits failed to identify the causes of the systemic crisis and the mechanisms to overcome it.

The central paradox of the XXI century is that converging into one global space, the benefits of globalization are unevenly. That is one side.

On the other part, Unawareness of the recipe to overcome the crisis the ever more often makes us to turn to history and look for answers therein.

As a result, we hear voices saying that nothing but a new big war can save the world from the crisis, because, they state, wars stimulate the economy.

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Design technology of the future

Santa Fe InstituteSanta Fe Institute

N.DN.D. . KondratieffKondratieff (4.03.1892-17.09.1938)(4.03.1892-17.09.1938)

Defense Advanced Defense Advanced Research Projects AgencyResearch Projects Agency

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Outlook and level of research - new methodology was created for cognition of regularities in development of the human system

The essence and scientific novelty of the new methodological toolkit is the following: the basis is served by the found objective and targeted predetermination in the human community development.

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The second component

of the new methodological toolkit is seen in integrity, plus systemic and cross-disciplinary approach.

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Third,

we have found the only possible index – time – to measure and juxtapose all processes and phenomena. With this index, we may measure and juxtapose everything that is neither measurable nor comparable in other indices, and, what is

most important – with time.

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And, the fourth

provision of the new methodological toolkit is that we found the uniform criteria for efficiency of the human system development – the time between the need to approach realization of the single development objective and the reality, in which society in whatever the section and each human individual are position in every given moment of time in relation to the objective.

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CONCLUSION: If the time between

appearance and satisfaction of a need felt by a specific individual tends to reduce continuously and evolutionally towards the zero, then - as far as the objective is concerned - the human system develops successfully.

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Therefore,

all problems of global-society development could be resolved only when the entire mankind finds itself in one and the same space of time and finds the mode of development, which, ultimately, would provide for continuous, evolutional and irreversible attainment of the objectively set development goal simultaneously for each specific individual, with due regard of his / her individual interests.

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With this methodological toolkit we were able to see,

that there have been and are only the two paradigms of the human system development in the centuries-long course of the human community development – that is:

– the first paradigm of the human system development proves that there is direct connection between production and consumption;

– by the second paradigm, production and consumption are connected indirectly.

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CONCLUSION:

The current development model represents the mediated human relations that do not correspond to the started era of cosmic speeds and use of digital, informational, cognitional, nano- and other technologies. Owing to advent of such high technologies, the economic and other realities change swiftly and become incompatible with such mode of production and consumption, and, especially, with the mediated-type interconnection (making it impossible to coordinate interests) with a particular human individual.

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So, if today the second development paradigm is preserved, then

the negative trends would prevail, problems would be multiplied the ever more speedily, and the global collapse seems a quite real prospect. The global dynamics would take the form of incessant crisis to be crowned by the apocalypse..

The new methodological tool-kit made it possible to see the formation pattern of another life-organization model capable of eliminating the primary cause of the systemic crisis, and to proceed to the crisis-free development road.

That is, today the world undergoes the period of transition and stands at the crossroads of the two options – (i) aggravation of the crisis and collapse of the human system, or (ii) return to the first development paradigm aimed at establishment of direct communication between production and consumption.

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Новая модель жизнеустройства на каждом местном уровне

КОНКРЕТНЫЙ ЧЕЛОВЕК СО ВСЕМ КРУГОМ СВОИХ ПОТРЕБНОСТЕЙ

система согласования интересов

государства, бизнеса, общества и

конкретного человека и синхронизация отношений между ними во времени и

в пространствеСТРУКТУРЫ И ИНСТИТУТЫ, ЗАЩИЩАЮЩИЕ

ИНТЕРЕСЫ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ

СТРУКТУРЫ И ИНСТИТУТЫ, ЗАЩИЩАЮЩИЕ ИНТЕРЕСЫ КОНКРЕТНОГО ЧЕЛОВЕКА

ИНФРАСТРУКТУРА ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ НА ОСНОВЕ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ ЦИФРОВЫХ ИНФОРМАЦИ-

ОННО- КОММУНИКАЦИОННЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ,

ШИРОКОПОЛОСТНОГО ТЕЛЕВИДЕНИЯ И ДРУГИХ ИННОВАЦИЙ

МАЛЫЕ ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНЫЕФОРМЫ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА С

РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННЫМИСИСТЕМАМИ, ПЕРЕНАСТРАИВАЕМЫЕ

В РЕАЛЬНОМ ВРЕМЕНИ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИОТ ЗАКАЗА КОНКРЕТНОГО ЧЕЛОВЕКА

ПО ВСЕМУ КРУГУ ЕГО ПОТРЕБНОСТЕЙ

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THERE ARE MODELS way to create industrial 3D printers

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Simultaneous formation of new production forces: To realize digital revolution in production and thus to put it on the basis of personalization – that is, manufacturing of products for the one-person “market”!

Living stem cells printed at 3D-printer

In Germany, they created a mentally piloted aircraft – a case of absolutely fantastic reduction of the “BETWEEN” time

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The number of unsold cars in the world is increasing every year

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This is the first car printed on the 3D-printer

The map of abandoned mega-malls in the US territory – these shopping malls could not stand competition with the Internet commerce

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New ghost towns, where no one lives

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Gunsmith used 3D-printer to create a gun

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The new methodological tool-kit enabled us:

to see that the mankind would benefit from the third industrial revolution provided only that the latter takes place concomitantly with changes in the model of human relations;

to articulate and substantiate proposals for development and realization of the MEGAPROJECT entitled as “Territory of Advanced Development: Everything for People”. The need to develop such project is very acute and the possibility to do that is absolutely real!

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MAJOR IDEA OF THE MEGAPROJECT AND MY PROPOSALS:

simultaneously to form the basis – i.e., a new life model, thereto relevant digital technologies and the mechanism for their realization on the base of coordination of the interests of the state, society and business with the interests of specific human individual;

for development of the Megaproject, to build an international cross-disciplinary team of academics and practical workers and to provide for participation of the entire global intellectual community, linked by network interaction within Internet, in realization of the given model;

to realize the pilot project as the case of cities in different countries and to provide for proliferation of the new life-organization model throughout the planet. It is requested to include my proposals in the agenda of the second day of the Congress sessions, for discussion at panel “C”: Balancing Technological and Societal Change ;

Formation of the new human-relations model on the base of new high technologies of the 21st century with due regard of each specific individual’s interests connected with the whole range of his/her spiritual and material needs will make it possible to transform simultaneously each local level into environment of informational development and to serve the basis for a fantastic innovative breakthrough

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The main conclusion of my report:

Today the super-new technologies of 21st century as well as the most breakthrough-like innovations demanded by the third industrial revolution, do not at all fit in the human-relations model that is dominating in the world. They bear threats, more catastrophes and apocalyptical expectations rather that contribute to prosperous life on the earth as a whole and in every place of specific human’s habitation. In such conditions, only new Knowledge can serve the major resource and the key for resolution of comprehensive problems inherent in introduction of breakthrough innovations, the concomitant sustainable development of the human system as well as the major precondition for further development of any country in the world. But only such Knowledge is needed that would disclose the objective causes for arising and world-wide proliferation of the global systemic crisis and would lead to the road of crisis-free development. Use of this main resource - giant innovative breakthrough in all spheres of human life.

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“Transition to Crisis-Free Development: A Myth or Reality?” Or “Where From the Innovative

Breakthrough Is to Be Expected?”

Thank you for your attention!

bondarenko@ikf2011.ru

www.ikf.2011.ru