© Crown copyright Met Office NI IHEEM May 2014 Climate Change Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office [email protected]

© Crown copyright Met Office

NI IHEEM May 2014Climate ChangeAlex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office

[email protected]


From the Global to the Local

• Global• AR5 & IPCC

• Attribution

• Local• Understanding Means &

Extremes

• Examples


From the Global to the Local

www.emeraldinsight.com

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/

Global WG2 AR5 Risk


Global WG2 AR5

Global WG2 AR5

Representative Concentration Pathways

If global emissions peak within next few years then decline

Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions

Emissions cuts make little difference for next few decades

Key risks Global WG2 AR5


AR5 Major Crops


Health impacts

• Up to 2050’s Exacerbation

•VH Confidence

• Towards 2100 - Increase in ill-health especially in developing regions

• high confidence.


2ºC rise Links & Consequences

2 deg map to go here

Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million

Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Some risk of melting

ice

OceanAcidification

Forestfire

Reduced crops

Forestfire

Some increased

crops

More heatwaves


4ºC rise Links & ConsequencesChange in temperature from pre-industrial climate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million

Meltingice

OceanAcidification

Rainforestloss

Reduced crops

Forestfire

Increased drought

Stronger tropical storms

Methane release

More heatwaves


Understanding the local


(Defra project code GA0204)

A climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland

January 2012

Contractors: HR Wallingford AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd

The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica


IMPACT

Effect

Summer Temperatures

Winter Temperatures

Winter Rainfall

Summer Rainfall

Sea Level

Impact bio-physical systems

Terrestrial environment

Coastal and marine environments

Risk assessment

Natural environment

Agriculture and forestry

Business

Buildings and infrastructure

Health and wellbeing

© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office

UKCP09

Three different emission scenarios

Seven different timeframes

25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions

© Crown copyright Met Office Slide by Erika Palin

Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate

• Temperature now

Probability of occurrence

Hot temperature

extremesCold temperature

extremes

(After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008)

• Temperature in future

Fewer cold

extremes

More hot extremes

More record

hot extremes

Cold threshold

Average Hot threshold

New average


Warmest day


Perspective - The Future


observationsMet Office Projections

2040s

2060sE

uro

pe

Tem

p a

no

mal

y (w

rt 1

961-

90)

°C

2003

2 deg c

Ave


Heatwaves


800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug

no

. o

f d

eath

s

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

tem

per

atu

re

oC

Average daily deaths 1998-2002

ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003

Maximum temperature (London)

2000 extra deaths in the UK

Peaks in death rate coincides with peaks

in temperatures

Average daily deaths

Daily deaths 2003

Maximum temperature (London)


Adapting now, mitigating for the future?

Adaptation

Mitigation

IPCC 20C

CRC


Some Output Winter Rain 2040s


Some Output Winter Rain 2080s


Sea Level Rise


Adapt now, mitigate for the future

Impact bio-physical systems

Terrestrial environment

Coastal and marine environments

Risk assessment

Natural environment

Agriculture and forestry

Business

Buildings and infrastructure

Health and wellbeing


Documents

© Crown copyright Met Office NI IHEEM May 2014 Climate Change Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office [email protected]