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Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund49.97 -0.14 -0.28% 11:11:58 AM VWAP:49.98DXJ-USA
Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - Price Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - MA-200D
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Cvol: 2,722,952 Avg: 2,657,733Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Vermilion Technical Research
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder
Week of November 25, 2013ETF themes and actionable commentary.ETFs highlighted: BKF, DXJ, EWG, EWI, EWP, EZU, FCG, GXC, HAO, IAI, IEO, IEV, IWM, KIE, KRE, MDY, PSCE, SLX, SPY, VWO, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, XPH.
David P. Nicoski, CMT952-922-7502
Shelley D. Moen, CMT952-922-7504
Joe W. Jasper, CFA952-922-7501
John M. Betz, CMT952-922-7506
6800 France Avenue S. • Edina, MN 55345 • 952-922-7500 • 866-922-7500 • www.vermilioncap.com
11/25/13
Small Caps: • Despite short-term weakness, small caps remain long-term leaders relative to large caps (IWM/SPY). More recently, small caps are emerging as leadership relative to mid caps (IWM/MDY), having resolved a multi-year dispute. See page 3.
Financials: • The Financial sector remains cyclical leadership. Internally, regional banks (KRE) continue to outperform. The re-gional bank / large bank ratio (KRE/KBE) continue to round higher. The Broker-Dealer ETF, IAI, is another leader, benefitting from large weightings in the electronic market/exchange stocks (ICE, CME, NDAQ, CBOE). See page 4.
Europe: • European funds continue to exhibit relative improvements. For broad exposure purposes, we favor the EMU-focused fund, EZU. The fund boasts a 70% weighting in France, Germany, and Spain - three leading countries, albeit of varying durations. EZU also has no exposure to the lagging U.K. market. PIGS-related ETFs, such as the Spain (EWP) and Italy (EWI) iShares, are exhibiting pullback opportunities above base support. See pages 5-6.
Emerging Markets: • Emerging markets are exhibiting tepid improvements but still lack leadership qualities. From a relative per-spective, we favor BRIC-related funds, such as the BKF, over broad EM funds (EEM, VWO). Many Chinese-focused ETFs are breaking out of cyclical price bases. See page 7.
Japan: • Accumulate. Japan’s equity market is beginning to break free from a 6-month consolidation. This follows a decisive break-out above the secular downtrend dating back to ‘89.
Top-Down ETF Themes
Sector SPDR Analysis
ETF Charts of Interest
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Materials
Europe
Japan
China
Table of Contents
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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 2
Small vs Large• : Small caps remain long-term leadership relative to large caps. However, this outperformance dating back to early-’99 has taken a short-term step back in recent weeks as seen below. While we do not believe it marks a decisive shift away from small caps, our estimate is that rotation is benefitting large cap names with exposure to improving overseas markets.
Small vs Mid• : Through last summer, small and mid caps have bandied about, struggling to establish a clear winner for the past year and a half. As the Russell 2000/S&P 400 Mid Cap ratio shows below, small caps are beginning to settle in as es-tablished leadership. The ratio’s breakout above resistance in July was the deciding vote.
ETF Themes: Small caps remain long-term leadership despite short-term weakness.
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110iShares Russell 2000 ETF - Price Relative to SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust Series 1 ETF Trust Units
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125iShares Russell 2000 ETF - Price Relative to SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 3
The financial sector’s steady advance continues to receive a fair share of scoffs, even from other technicians. While the mid-sum-• mer bout of relative underperformance raised red flags, long-term uptrends were never reversed. Accordingly, we are maintaining our “overweight’ recommendation (our longest-standing sector overweight, in fact).
In particular, • regional banks remain a space of leadership. The KBW Regional Banking Index ETF, KRE (see below), continues to advance within the confines of a cyclical price advance. From a relative perspective, KRE continues to outperform the broad market (KRE/SPY), the financial sector (KRE/XLF), and even larger banks, as seen in the KRE/KBE ratio below.
Financial Exchange stocks are another space of internal leadership. Names like • CME, CBOE, ICE, and NDAQ are breaking out from bullish bases. While no pure-play exists for this group from an ETF perspective, the iShares DJ US Broker-Dealers ETF, IAI, is heavily weighted towards these stocks, including: ICE (9.6%), CME (6.6%), NDAQ (4.8%), and CBOE (4.6%).
ETF Themes: Financials remain an “overweight.” Regional banks and financial exchange stocks & ETFs are leadership.
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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF39.08 0.77 2.01% 1:44:12 PM VWAP:38.86KRE-USA
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - Price SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - MA-200D
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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - Price Relative to SPDR S&P Bank ETF
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 4
Overweight...still• : Our three global “overweight” recommendations are: U.S., Japan, and Europe. The latter, while frag-mented at the country-specific level during the first half of the year, is beginning broaden from a breadth perspective. Germany (EWG), a secular leader, has performed steadily. Ireland (EIRL) and Switzerland (EWL) have acted as cyclical leaders. France is beginning to play a part. And, since July, the PIGS have climbed out of the muck, emerging from cyclical bottoming patterns in September.
PIGS• : While not nearly as unexploited any longer, the PIGS markets still present attractive technical opportunities. The Spain (EWP) and Italy (EWI) iShares are the two focal points. Both ETFs are currently retracing back towards the necklines of 2-year, head-and-shoulders bottoms. Previously resistance and now support, these levels represent ideal entry points (see charts on the next page). Accumulate.
EZU• : For broad exposure to Europe, we favor the iShares EMU Index ETF, EZU. Exposure is limited exclusively to EMU countries (European Monetary Union), leaving out the U.K., Switzerland, Denmark, and Sweden. It is this lack of exposure to the lagging U.K. market, in particular, that is the selling point in addition to the heavy weightings in Germany, France, and Spain. And this exposure to these relative leaders has led to decisive outperformance relative to other broad-based European funds such as the iShares Europe 350 ETF, IEV. As seen in the plotted ratio of the EZU vs. IEV below, the chart depicts a bullish head-and-shoulders breakout in favor of the U.K.-free EZU. See the weightings breakdown below for a comparison of EZU versus IEV (iShares Europe 350 ETF).
ETFThemes: Europe continues to exhibit relative leadership characteristics
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iShares MSCI EMU ETF39.93 -0.03 -0.06% 10:45:29 AM VWAP:39.95EZU-USA
iShares MSCI EMU ETF - Price iShares MSCI EMU ETF - MA-200D
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iShares MSCI EMU ETF - Price Relative to iShares Europe ETF
IEV: United Kingdom (33%), France (14%), Switzerland (14%).EZU: France (31%), Germany (30%), Spain (11%). All three are relative-leadership markets.
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 5
ETF Themes: Europe continues to exhibit relative leadership characteristics
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iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF37.04 0.00 0.00% VWAP:EWP-USA
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF - Price iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF - MA-200D
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Cvol: Avg: 320,790iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
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iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF15.31 0.00 0.00% VWAP:EWI-USA
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF - Price iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF - MA-200D
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Cvol: Avg: 456,681iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 6
ETF Themes: Emerging Markets, while far from leadership, are exhibiting tepid improvements.
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Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF26.79 0.26 0.98% 1:08:01 PM VWAP:26.71HAO-USA
Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - PriceClaymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - MA-200D
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Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - Price Relative to Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 7
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 8
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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund64.36 0.20 0.31% 9:30:46 AM VWAP:64.31XLY-USA
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Cvol: 639,601 Avg: 5,509,375Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
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Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund21.21 0.06 0.28% 9:29:54 AM VWAP:21.18XLF-USA
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %JPM 8.2WFC 8.2BRK.B 8.1BAC 6.3C 6.0AXP 3.0AIG 2.8USB 2.8GS 2.7MET 2.3
XLY: Consumer Discretionary SPDR
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %AMZN 6.8CMCSA 6.2HD 5.8DIS 5.8MCD 4.9F 3.3FOXA 3.3TWX 3.1SBUX 3.0NKE 2.9
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
XLF: Financial Sector SPDR
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 9
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Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund49.79 0.06 0.12% 9:31:46 AM VWAP:49.78XLI-USA
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
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Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund34.20 0.15 0.43% 9:31:19 AM VWAP:34.15XLK-USA
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Cvol: 656,585 Avg: 8,189,021Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %AAPL 14.6GOOG 8.9MSFT 8.6IBM 5.9T 5.9VZ 4.5ORCL 3.9QCOM 3.8CSCO 3.6INTC 3.3
XLI: Industrials Sector SPDR
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %GE 11.4BA 5.5UTX 5.3MMM 4.8UNP 4.5UPS 4.1HON 4.1CAT 3.2EMR 2.8DHR 2.8
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
XLK: Technology Sector SPDR
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 10
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Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund44.49 -0.02 -0.04% 9:32:05 AM VWAP:44.45XLB-USA
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund87.61 0.47 0.54% 9:30:26 AM VWAP:87.49XLE-USA
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %XOM 16.3CVX 13.8SLB 7.2OXY 3.9COP 3.8PXD 3.3EOG 3.2HAL 3.1APC 3.1NOV 2.6
XLB: Materials Sector SPDR
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %MON 10.6DD 10.2DOW 8.6FCX 6.8PX 6.7LYB 6.3ECL 4.9PPG 4.8APD 4.2IP 3.6
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
XLE: Energy Sector SPDR
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 11
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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund43.16 0.12 0.28% 9:32:37 AM VWAP:43.10XLP-USA
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
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Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund54.35 0.21 0.39% 9:32:35 AM VWAP:54.27XLV-USA
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %JNJ 12.8PFE 10.0MRK 6.7GILD 5.1AMGN 4.2BMY 4.1ABBV 3.7UNH 3.5CELG 3.0BIIB 2.9
XLP: Consumer Staples Sector SPDR
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %PG 14.2KO 9.4PM 9.1WMT 7.9CVS 5.1PEP 4.6MO 4.2CL 3.7MDLZ 3.5COST 3.5
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
XLV: Health Care Sector SPDR
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 12
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Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund39.15 0.12 0.31% 9:33:11 AM VWAP:39.08XLU-USA
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund - MA-200D
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Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %DUK 9.5D 8.0NEE 7.6SO 7.5EXC 4.9AEP 4.8SRE 4.2PPL 4.0PCG 3.8PEG 3.5
Sector SPDR ETF Overview
XLU: Utilities Sector SPDR
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 13
ETF Charts of Interest
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 14
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First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund19.51 0.33 1.72% 9:39:24 AM VWAP:19.47FCG-USA
First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund - Price First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund - MA-200D
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1360
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First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund - Price Relative to Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
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iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF81.86 0.54 0.66% 9:38:42 AM VWAP:82.00IEO-USA
iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF - Price iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF - MA-200D
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iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF - Price Relative to Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %COP 13.9EOG 7.2APC 7.2PSX 6.5APA 5.9NBL 4.1MRO 4.1PXD 4.0MPC 3.9DVN 3.8
FCG: First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund Group: EF-02 Energy
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %PVA 6.2KWK 5.0MHR 4.5QEP 4.3NFX 4.2BBG 4.2NBL 4.1TLM 4.1DVN 4.0APA 4.0
ETF Charts of Interest
IEO: iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Group: EF-02 Energy
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 15
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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF38.34 0.05 0.13% 9:44:04 AM VWAP:38.27KRE-USA
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - Price SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - MA-200D
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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - Price Relative to S&P 500
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PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio46.54 0.13 0.28% 9:07:16 AM VWAP:46.54PSCE-USA
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio - Price PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio - MA-200D
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Cvol: 100 Avg: 28,604PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio - Price Relative to Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %BRS 10.8PDCE 7.4CKH 6.5CRZO 6.1HOS 5.9EXH 5.6SGY 5.0GEOS 4.8CJES 4.1NR 4.1
KIE: SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF Group: EF-03 Financials
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %PVTB 1.8PACW 1.7CSE 1.7SIVB 1.7GBCI 1.7SBNY 1.7BXS 1.7TCBI 1.7EWBC 1.6IBKC 1.6
ETF Charts of Interest
PSCE: PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio Group: EF-02 Energy
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 16
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SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF86.49 0.26 0.30% 9:48:04 AM VWAP:86.19XPH-USA
SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF - Price SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF - MA-200D
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SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF - Price Relative to S&P 500
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iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF36.40 0.17 0.47% 9:43:38 AM VWAP:36.43IAI-USA
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF - Price iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF - MA-200D
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Cvol: 5,784 Avg: 442,342iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers ETF - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %ICE 9.3GS 7.5MS 7.2SCHW 6.7CME 6.6AMP 6.5NDAQ 4.8AMTD 4.7RJF 4.6CBOE 4.5
XPH: SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF Group: EF-04 Health Care
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %ENDP 4.8SNTS 4.8SLXP 4.3VPHM 4.2JAZZ 4.1PRGO 4.0BMY 3.9ACT 3.9FRX 3.8MNK 3.8
ETF Charts of Interest
IAI: iShares U.S. Broker Dealers ETF Group: EF-03 Financials
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 17
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iShares MSCI EMU ETF39.57 -0.14 -0.35% 10:13:02 AM VWAP:39.60EZU-USA
iShares MSCI EMU ETF - Price iShares MSCI EMU ETF - MA-200D
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iShares MSCI EMU ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
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Market Vectors Steel Index Fund49.24 0.39 0.80% 9:49:16 AM VWAP:49.27SLX-USA
Market Vectors Steel Index Fund - Price Market Vectors Steel Index Fund - MA-200D
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Cvol: 7,702 Avg: 193,906Market Vectors Steel Index Fund - Price Relative to S&P 500
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %RIO 12.7VALE 11.8MT 6.5PKX 6.2TS 6.2SID 5.6NUE 5.1TX 4.9STLD 4.8GGB 4.5
EZU: iShares MSCI EMU ETF Group: EF-17 Europe
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %FP 3.3SAN 3.3BAYN 2.7SIE 2.7SAN 2.5BAS 2.5ABI 2.2ALV 2.1DAI 2.0SAP 1.9
ETF Charts of Interest
SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund Group: EF-07 Materials
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 18
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Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund49.40 0.00 0.00% 10:16:16 AM VWAP:49.36DXJ-USA
Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - Price Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - MA-200D
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Cvol: 1,043,921 Avg: 2,612,154Wisdomtree Trust WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
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iShares MSCI Germany ETF29.70 -0.10 -0.34% 10:11:51 AM VWAP:29.79EWG-USA
iShares MSCI Germany ETF - Price iShares MSCI Germany ETF - MA-200D
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iShares MSCI Germany ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %BAYN 8.9SIE 8.7BAS 8.2ALV 6.7DAI 6.6SAP 6.4DBK 4.0DTE 3.6VOW3 3.2MUV2 3.2
DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund Group: EF-18 Japan
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %8306 2.17203 4.97751 4.67267 4.34502 4.32914 3.97201 2.88058 2.88031 2.44503 2.1
ETF Charts of Interest
EWG: iShares MSCI Germany ETF Group: EF-17 Europe
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 19
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Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF26.73 0.08 0.30% 10:17:21 AM VWAP:26.71HAO-USA
Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - PriceClaymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - MA-200D
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1370
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Cvol: 200,210 Avg: 163,263Claymore Exchange-Traded Fund Trust 2 Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
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SPDR S&P China ETF78.80 -0.15 -0.19% 10:10:13 AM VWAP:78.79GXC-USA
SPDR S&P China ETF - Price SPDR S&P China ETF - MA-200D
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1380
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140Cvol: 38,481 Avg: 123,300
SPDR S&P China ETF - Price Relative to iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %B0LMTQ 6.9B1G1QD 5.8B01CT3 5.8607355 5.8BIDU 4.6B15456 3.5B00G0S 3.4622657 2.7671897 2.5629181 2.3
HAO: Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF Group: EF-22 China
Top 10 HoldingsTicker %YOKU 2.03800 1.4168 1.41211 1.41169 1.4257 1.3868 1.31193 1.2WX 1.21177 1.1
ETF Charts of Interest
GXC: SPDR S&P China ETF Group: EF-22 China
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder 20
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David P. Nicoski, CMT952-922-7502
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