BAHRAINTHE UNHEARD REBELLION

IMPORTANT DATES

1913 – Bahrain is granted “independence” in a treaty between the British and the Ottoman Empire, but remains under British control.

1931 – Oil is discovered in Bahrain by BAPCO (relative of SOCAL) and production begins the following year.

1961 – Sheikh Isa Bin-Salman al-Khalifa becomes leader of Bahrain and establishes Bahrain as a monarchy. The Khalifa’s are Sunni Muslim while the majority of Bahrainis are Shiite.

1970 – Iran drops its claims of sovereignty over Bahrain after a UN referendum shows Bahrainis wish to remain independent.

1971 – Khalifa becomes Emir of Bahrain when they obtain independence from Britain.

BAHRAIN

IMPORTANT DATES

1981 – Bahrain joins GCC; 73 people said to be agents of Iran arrested in plot to overthrow the government.

1986 – King Fahd Causeway connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia

1991 – United States and Bahrain sign defense agreement

1996 – Another alleged coup plot uncovered by Bahrain assigned to Iran

1997 – Bahrain becomes sole owner of BAPCO

1999 – Sheikh Hamad succeeds his father to the throne

2001 – Bahrain becomes a constitutional monarchy under a referendum with local elections following in 2002

2004 – Bahrain signs free trade agreement with the U.S.

2006 – Bahrain has elections in which Shia’s win 40% of parliamentary seats

2010 – Shia are poised to make big gains in parliament elections; many are arrested in a parliamentary coup before elections; Shias make small gains but this election proves to be a spark in 2011

BAHRAINBasic Facts and Demographics

Oil was a primary export, however, now Bahrain has returned to refining and international banking as reserves decline. One of the most diversified economies in the Middle East.

70% Shia ruled by Sunni monarchy. Similar protests were placated in 1990s through economic and political reforms, including parliamentary elections.

38% of the country is non-Bahraini foreign workers living in the country. Many of these are Sunnis who work for the security apparatus of the regime.

1.2 million people, solid age structure; however, fast growing population (2.8%) and 20% unemployment

4.5% of GDP goes toward military expenditure (20th highest in the world).

Long term greivances between Shia population and Sunni government have become especially exasperated after 2010 elections and have spilled over into protests in 2011.

BAHRAINFebruary 14

Protests begin in Bahrain at the Pearl Roundabout. Protesters gathered at the Pearl Roundabout to call for Constitutional reforms. Protesters were met with force from the beginning, resulting in 14 deaths.

Protests continue through February, with the government and protesters trading positions around the Pearl Roundabout.

March 14

Saudi and Emirati troops are sent to assist Bahrain in ending the protests to the chagrin of the international community. State of Emergency is declared.

March 18

Government destroys the Pearl Roundabout in the hopes to quell protests. Six opposition leaders are arrested and jailed for “speaking with foreign agents.”

BAHRAIN

May 31/June 1

King Hamad calls for dialogue and state of emergency is lifted.

November 23

Report is issued admitting that regime used excessive force to quell protests where 23 died; no connection found with Iran.

BAHRAIN

Allegations Against the Bahraini Regime

Doctors were targeted en masse because they have proof of atrocities by the regime

Doctors were put on trial for treating protesters

Protesters were sentenced to death; several have been tortured to death

300 workers fired from oil plants; teachers laid off; workers fired (US Labor groups sent to Bahrain to view evidence)

BAHRAINJune 29

King Hamad called for an investigation into human rights abuses during the protests in February and March

November 23

Bahraini Independent Commission Report (BICI) finds excessive force was used and there was no Iranian influence.

35 people were killed, 500 people detained since February.

Government regretted the actions of a few, but still blamed Iran for propaganda and incitement

Report actually emboldened protesters who now believe they have increasingly legitimate claims against the government.

BAHRAIN

Effects of Protests and Role of Actors

Protests still continue in cities throughout the country with arrests, detentions, and loss of jobs.

Economy has slowed to a drip. Shrank from projected 4% growth to 1.5% growth.

United States: Arms deal was cancelled until BICI report was cleared; labor relations strained; US Nationals are working to reform police forces and helping with regime PR

Iran: Allegedly has had a hand in inciting Shia protestors; explosion at British Embassy last week – terrorism; Bahrain and Iran have important oil ties

Cold War in the Gulf? // What is next for the regime and protestors?

YemenA Country on the Brink

Yemen- Profile

Economy Dependent on depleting oil reserves Attempts at economic diversification Recently began exporting liquefied natural gas 35% unemployment (2003) Youth Bulge Declining water resources

Yemen History

Yemen: A Brief History

1962- Yemen Arab Republic founded

1970- People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen founded

1984- Oil is discovered in Yemen by Hunt Company

1990- Unification of the YAR and PDRY into the Republic of Yemen

1993- Parliamentary Elections held, paving the way to Civil War

1994- Civil War breaks out between the North and South

2000- Saudi- Yemen Border demarcated

Yemen History

Yemen: A Brief History cont’d

2000- USS Cole suicide attack

2004- Al-Houthi Movement emerges in North

2006- President Saleh wins election

2007- Southern Movement Reemerges

2009- Saudi Arabia engages Al-Houthi Movement militarily

2011- Yemen Uprising begins with protests and solidarity marches

Yemen UprisingPhotos Courtesy of jadaliyya.com and Reuters

Yemen Uprising

Causes

- Uprisings in Tunisia & Egypt

- High Unemployment

- Perpetually High Food and Gas Prices

- Corruption and Poor Governance

Major Players The Opposition Movement

-Youth Movement- Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- Hashid Tribal Confederation-First Armored Division- General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar

Yemen Uprising

General People’s Congress (GPC)

- President Saleh maintains

- Patronage Mechanism

- Various GPC figures defected during the course of the uprisings

Major Threats

Al- Houthi Movement

Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement)

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

International Response

UN Resolution 2014

- Demands 30- day reporting mechanism on the progress being made towards initiating the GCC agreement

GCC brokered power transition

- Immunity for Saleh and other GPC members

- Saleh hands over power to VP Abdrabbuh Monsour al- Hadi within 30 days of signature (Dec. 23rd)

- Elections set for February 23, 2012

- 35 Member Interim National Unity Government Announced

US counter-terror operations top priority

Saudi Arabia

Counter- Revolutionary Force or Protector of the

Status Quo?

Background Information

Birthplace of Islam

Governed by Shar’ia Law and Wahhabism

Wealthy and “Developed” nation

High Rate of Unemployment

History of extensive Human Rights Abuses

Long and complicated history with United States

Saudi Response to Arab Awakening

37 Billion Dollars ($US) in social reform and welfare programs

Overwhelming police presence within the Kingdom

Complete military crackdown on ANY demonstrations or protests

New “Anti-Terrorism” Law

Strict press laws and punishments for political activism

Crown Prince Nayef and the Line of Succession

Former Defense Minister

Close to the Wahhabi Clerical Establishment

Ultra Conservative, hardliner

78 years old, much of royal family is old and/or ailing. Thought to be out of touch with much of Saudi population

Principle Threat: Women

Current Situation• Very Repressed and

extremely limited both socially and culturally, as is standard in pure Wahhabist rule

• Desire more social and political freedom and inclusion within Saudi Society

Saudi Response: Women granted right to vote

recently

Stricter laws being passed regarding limiting women's’ freedoms within Saudi Arabia

Principle Threat: The Youth Unemployment

Current Situation Average age is 25 years

Estimates for unemployment are as high as 25%

Huge gaps in income throughout the kingdom

About 80% of Saudi workforce are non-nationals

Saudi Response 37Billion dollars in welfare

reforms including unemployment benefits and subsidies

“Strategic Partnership” with the United States in a 385Billion Dollar Investment in the future of Saudi Arabia

Principle Threat: Shia Minority

Current Situation 2Million Shia’s living in Qatif

Unfair treatment and subject to systematic discrimination

March: “Day of Rage”

Early December: 4 Dead and as many as 11 Injured in protests

Saudi Response Early December marks the

first time Saudi forces used gunfire against protestors

Using any and all means to quiet and quell dissent

Blamed violence on an “unnamed foreign influence”

Demonstrations in Qatif

Principle Threat: Iran

Struggle and Competition to be the regional Hegemon

Sectarian differences cause an escalation in the situation

Proxy Wars: Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, is Iraq next?

Extremist activity: Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda

United States wants containment of Iranian Influence

Qatar

A Basic History

1971: Independence from British

1939: Discovery of oil reserves

1990: Qatar allows foreign troops on territory; participates in Gulf War

1996: Al-Jazeera is launched

1999: Municipal elections take place for the first time

2001: Border disputes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain settled

2005: New Constitution comes into effect

2007: Doha Center for Media Freedom established

2008: First official Church inaugurated

2011: Join military operations in Libya

2013: First-ever elections for advisory committee to be held

Historical rule by Al-Thani family

Population: 1.8 million; 250,000 citizens

Majority religion: Sunni Islam

GDP per capita (2010): $179,000 (#1)

GDP Growth Rate (2010): 16.3%

HDI: 0.831

Foreign Relations

Israel

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain

USA

Russia

Military Power

Gulf War: Qatar allows foreign troops into territory

Iraq War: US base in Qatar becomes ‘nerve center’ of operations in Iraq (now largest military base outside of USA)

Libya: join in NATO-led military operations; reportedly arm rebels

10%GDP spent on military (2005 estimate)

Soft Power GCC

Founding member 1981

Mediation Lebanon Sudan/Darfur Western Sahara Somalia Palestine

Al Jazeera Promoting freer media in Arab world Coverage of Arab Spring

The Arab Spring

Al Jazeera coverage of uprisings Bahrain protests coverage English vs Arabic channels

Democratization: Advisory Council Election s planned for 2013

Sent troops to Bahrain during protests

Emir urges Western leaders to embrace moderate Islam

“If you have everything you need, who needs democracy?”