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48 1,594,000 11,566 0.73 16,619,264 42,053 0.2549 1,595,000 13,854 0.87 21,867,470 60,297 0.2850 1,620,000 15,292 0.94 24,427,185 82,297 0.3451 1,616,000 18,357 1.11 24,832,750 113,908 0.4652 1,611,000 19,892 1.23 26,055,875 111,855 0.43
53 1,658,000 20,557 1.24 31,205,032 150,811 0.4854 1,685,000 18,704 1.11 32,156,943 156,730 0.4955 1,702,000 22,328 1.31 33,969,842 185,086 0.5456 1,690,000 24,011 1.42 37,209,329 225,106 0.6057 1,694,000 21,386 1.26 40,631,019 183,723 0.45
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;li*.~:i:(fJJi1J1I (12.1 ·ffOo f.5j!H:3i* t3 ~~~~1f~i!P}rfl~B9.~, Im-t-]\~:m 52.27%, 1i-t--t~~:m 13.17% (~~~ 1-2) 0
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.-'------48 17,084 52.27 15,600 47.73 32,68449 20,717 73.06 7,639 26.94 28,35650 27,091 77.74 7,755 22.26 34,84651 36,265 94.36 2,167 5.64 38,43252 34,528 85.37 5,917 14.63 40,44553 42,100 82.99 8,627 17.01 50,72754 41,079 39.85 62,000 60.15 103,07955 51,639 44.35 64,800 55.65 116,43956 64,082 33.60 126,623 66.40 190,70557 52,136 13.17 343,803 86.83 395,939
jf.M*il: The Research Institute of Rural Socio-Economics, NationalTaiwan University, Long-Term Projections of Supply, Demand andTrade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan, Taipei, 1969.(Manuscript)
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( 16 )
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3. 1itlnlt*=fi.iEJt+BE#.+.~.+~::!J.+~IIifJV](ft+;j;t#.
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5. ~ If! Wflj( A) = (~JI:t~- _nlt*)..;-~i1tMia6. ~1f!~f1j( B )=(_Jl:t~-1itlnlt*)..;-~i1tMi.
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tiE: ~ Ii%: * 8,326 9,057 6,710 6,384 4,096 2.656
1'F 1'1]( A) 625 2,124 -38 4,355 5,109 1.268
1'F ;fIJ( B) 2.627 4.126 1,964 6,357 6,147 2,305
~IJ .ii tr jlf 11i'I 650 1,344 225 987 694 496"w
::t .ii !f?;j ~ .!i:(-0fT) 3.198 3,628 2.530 4,041 2,895 1,791
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m-0fT.ii ,,9, ~f.il. 3.22 3.26 3.34 2.91 3.30 2.49
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'i¥f Ej3 ~ ~J(A) 1,945 90 670 1,477 833 4,164 4,972
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'!lJ0fT::t~4%.QX*( A) 2.67 3.20 3.02 2.82 2.99 1.87 1.93
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( 23 )
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j!:ffl)m1n~~.:.E:*o t*JlP, .~jg;fl~~(fJ~1J m1n~fitlfFitho ~1!IJJij)rt:E:*~
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w: !¥ ~ %11 2,627.02 4,586.124"i1:1fI±.~ith~:I: 3,198.32 16,828.24:± ~ tm .¥ {it 3.22 0.651t '" nE *'I- Jt 3,006.30 2,526.59!» 11 • 3,869.47 4,241.17
Jt*'l-*lmt: *.*m~~Jtf'f~.o
( 24 )
433.06873.67
5.512,416.372,998.75
2,127.922,360.00
3.532,587.502,414.58
-109-
"re: Efl ~ ;fll
"re:Efl:t~4'kJ~:m:
:tffi4'kJ¥{l
1t ~ m~ *f ~
tjj 11 ~
3,403.75
3,660.00
3.25
2,972.90
3,481.94
3,217.15
15,788.32
0.61
2,240.88
3,775.55
-- ~----- --- - ----- -------------~------
~ Efl ~ ;f'1 3,484.95 3,197.06 1,870.00 1,301.45
"re:Efl:tffi4'kJ~~ 3,304.74 20,403.06 1,062.50 3,228.95
:tffi4'kJ¥{l 2.96 0.49 6.44 4.00
1t ~ ~E *f Jt 2,394.86 3,268.47 1,205.39 3,971. 05
~ 11 Jt 3,726.80 4,624.81 3,010.42 5,203.95
f'F 4'kJ lJlj~ §
~5C;li* -jt ni---_ ..__ .
~ Efl ~ ;flj 2,264.00 3,232.61
~fll±ffi4'kJffi~ 2,554.00 20,304.35
:tffi4'kJlt!{l 3.41 0.46
1t ~ ~E *f Jt 1,353.67 1,494.20
~ 11 Jt 3,445.33 4,300.72
Jt*f*M: f1X_*fflWiff1tJtllIUJo
( 25 )
-110-
f'f 11m §IJJJ: §
:lE*:li* it i,J :re 1=. + %:
!fij: ~ ~ *,Ij 5,243.77 8,184.83 3,717.67 3,042.07
w~±~lImifi:S: 2,555.88 15,873.34 1,314.28 1,012.84
±~IImJ\[fl 3.24 0.76 7.35 5.64
1t '" fiB ~ • 1,014.36 715.60 633.52
~ 11 • 2,329.16 3,859.7'2 4,107.29 2,945.12
{t 11m lJlJJJ: §
:lE*:li%: it ~'r :re 1=.
w JT3 ~ :flJ 4,091.09 7,588.38 7,171.66
w~±~Itfo~:I: 2,435.88 13,566.46 1,243.54
±!tItfoJ\[fl 2.85 0.79 9.85
1t '" nE ~ • 668.51 493.29 509.75
~ 1J • 2,431.22 3,503.59 3,414.06
~~*~:*.*m~~~~~~o
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tfro t(l)*~~.=.t:*fl~MlU«~1t, El:J~1tfl.=.t:*EMiH.MA, ftW~j7qEfJ~MfI
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TIIT*~, {Ilwr%nltB~~j7q:lt;J~fl~, Jt;mAmiill~, -~1t~*R~.£IIi'jEfJm
f'j:lt;JflUflMo ~• .=L:*fl~~t!JflJm~.=.t:*fl~~t!J~rI'M~}IIi!f*, g ffi_r::I UniJf1JgEl:J.r::IU.:fi~~.~m~o ••~~~+~.~1L+1L.~.MM.,~J!! iii:l1!Eli:*flmf1J. r::I :li**5IlI~fl~\8
) z,l1H~ffi 1Bl, ;ttffi iii!f*~{Ii~ 0.40 (tE5% 1'i~7K~r/fm~) , r},\'ifITfIJJf:j~;l1Li·~.~)1 j1j1L-t-l::.-t::)1 ~)1 J.lljiii:!l!i1Jt~fl~fIJ. r::I *5K1fl~:ftM pJf*WEfJiii~ 1fjHf*Jtlqlf.liJi 0.84 (tE 5%
m~7j(i\§r'I'i~) 0 t!omlll*~, Wj:fiYJ J.lIJil~~JJ!!IJ.~~:sy.ffi-IZ ($:~iJ
(8) :llf:r::I~~ili1l~filEl: mJ5CIl, "~*:llf:r::I~ftrl'l~aZt1l!ff". EI mifl5zn, m30~, ~.J'£9WIo
( 27 )
-112-
u-3.7
3.$
H-
.2·7
xs-.
.2.3-
s.i-:
,,,-/·7-'------------ ------
/ .2 3 ./.1 S " 1 I 1 /" 1/ t:l / .2 j ~ s " 1 f 't /o /1 ,.J
1967 1968
4-1) 0
m1n:~JItjir:l~*EfJ*lJjJt~\RJ, jir:l~*B~fJ{m*G.ljf~\RJo tE7t;Jn~.~
*fJ{m~~.~~,~~~fi~.jir:l~*~*~~mTMo
M~*~JItjir:l~*~*~~*±~~~~,~~,~~~,m~~~,~
~~~~,~~~~m~m~o~~mrn+n~~E+~~A~~,~TE+
~,E+=~,~E+rn~~=~~r:I~~*~~~~*~±~,~~~~~~
~~~*m±,rn+n~~E+~~.jir:l~~*s7tZs~~m~*,n+=
~~m~*{J!! 57%, n+n~{J!! 69%, E+~~~E+~~m~~~m~*~
±, ~{J!! 91% ;fQ 89%0 mJ!t1iJJi, j[(+~*~m;:k*tEJf.~*m~l:.~~
*" 4-1 '.i: i1JfJ1l. ofi1!. P .L 3ItIII~IJ H:.{911~ '!fi.Ur.:%
~Ji:~tJ-fr~ii ~ W ~ Iii Ili'fflH! m~lfM;n ~e!j~(.fi!;!&i)
.~ (0Ff)
49 1,383,524 100
50 1,257,879 100
51 17,647,780 100
52 17,781,7f/l 33.28 66.72
53 22,576,015 56.74 0.91 42.32 0.02
54 62,297,409 15.92 76.80 7.28
55 f/l,631,919 69.29 15.48 15.23
56 141,383,175 91.37 0.01 8.61
57 389,508,324 89.22 10.78
~~*~:~~$,~~~~~~~.o
( 28 )
-113-
.~@.~{sIo <."Jt* 4~1)
.~~R~••~~~*~±~*~,ill~••~~~.R~*~±M,~.~*a~±~jftt§Jt.~a *0 1959 1f~.3i*~jft.I'!*f180,1) jfttt a *,1960 1f17:m 61%, 19641f. 65 ~, 19651f72~0 ~ffli:tE a *~*mfl1, ~1ilI~
*~~~~IilI~*m~~fflifta~~*~m~~~~&.~IilI~*~m:m~.~.0~~~~3i*Jt••IilI~~*~m~~~tt~~.,~T~~**§.3i*
ilma~!!I!iIJ.~, ~~,Jt;JtIill~~*~m~~~~1m1JlIJ;J.~~o3U~~IilI~3i*
.~H~z~~~.,~JM~~3i*~mZ~~~1m,~~Jt~~3i*Z~~
~.~Jt;1J1IJ;J.~~0
.::., ~ ~..L. ;/l1f~~iA-;t~ ~
(-) 1!!:ft.U!l:.~~~
~.19661f.~.ff,~~~*~~OO~~.~~~~WT~~0.~.~
~a~~IB:~~~t~~, KBfJ!!~~~.~.a944.51 ?~o I'I:fH~~:l:JiS~, fJ!!~i!t
~.~:l:a~ 13.8817', .fI}~~WT~~~ 13.51%, ?flHfJ!! 7.1%, }i*~Ji![f~
5.9815, 7dF~~IjRf~ 0.94% ~ ~Jit~~3i*mtiIJjJ[Ii]~E!:I~~fP11'1:1H ...!ffi~fUjd'F~mtifJo ($J!* 4-2 ~ 4-3)
J;J.~~ffli~, WM1f..ffm~, :tE~E!:Im_*~~~~~~~*~.~*
14_, ~1f.S:,jfiOO.-;ff 23,040,000 0tl, .~.fI:~ 104,585,000 011oUi, f~~
~.~:S:~ 43.80%0 Jt~~egg, .:S:~ 11,371,000 011I, f~~~Jl.:s:a9
4.76%0 .1fBgg~~~mZt&, m.Wlma~.:I:~;j1l~Kt1if 10 *0 .fI}*~~gg
ii, ~:s: 8,454,000 011ii, J;J.t&t&Jf~\IiiJ~~ .. ffill .. T¥HJfJ[ffr:ffi .. i*m.. Xt*ifi] .. ffiJi:. .. ~HI!:'iit .. ~mo ;E.i&1f.~.U:n:~=T0*, Ul1~~~Jl.lla~
0.02%, ~1f.8t;mJtS:1.H"-~;\T0111, Ul~~~m~:s:a9 0.05%, PJ"J!?I.~*m~:tEi!t~3i*m~~&~~~{sIo~~~.3i*~¥&OO~~:S::tE~E!:I
~~*~~JiSmIJ.9&, Ul*:!k~m .. ~~fUXt*ifl]o ($J!* 4-3)oofl:=f~1;Ii
~ 4-2 '\!!-Jt.jJIj$IJ.L;tl~A~~ (19661'-) lil~~:.S~ff
3Moo. 102,283 23,366 11,066 24,596 15,554 13,487 1,876 94
.&iti.~iI: 23.3 45.5 29.9 13.1 10.9 10.6 22.0 23.8
• ~ • 238,775 106,270 33,132 32,255 16,943 14,277 4,12"8 224
S 51 .It 100 44.51 13.88 13.51 7.10 5.98 1.73 0.94
j!f.fEl*it: FAO: Production Yearbook 1967.
·mm~~~~.~~.*~~••o
<29 )
4,700
10.4
4,907
2.06
5,069
9.9
4,991
2.09
E i'.!J "Ii'.!Jilf Ilii,fm~
8,703 7,460 3,275
13.1 11.3 21.5
11,371 8,454 7,040
4.76 3.54 2.95
-U4--
*- 4-3 oJ: ;1it~i!tJf.L ;\l.i:~AIt!!..1. ~J:±'::4~.tl C1966c¥j:: ,eli
iHiff:'f~~ ¥timiftjj!i: 1J~J¥'~},j~:Il:Sflt.u~of I ",
8: '~iIii 'ft 23,040
¥{l1:iIff~fiiBI: 45.4
~ ~ II. 104,585
13 5t It* 43.80
JJl. § ~ ID'i ;!t*flj fJJ ~ ~ftt1{ ~ ~ '~ M
ff;ffiImift 964 988 3,186 2,167 570 22'
4ltriIffftii:Ji 45.0 35.5 9.0 6.6 22.4 23.2
*~ fii .iii: 4.336 3,510 2,874 1,435 1,277 52
Ef 5t It* 1.82 1.47 1.20 0.60 0.53 0.02
~M*iJij{: IOI~ 4-2 0
• 1!l-JjtlID'i*.:E*ii:.{tif!!:W~fiill:B'jEf71It0
~r&t.E*, ±~~:Jn~~*~~±tP. (The Central Basin) 89.:.E*±tP.1W (The Maize Belt) , DlkAfF'~*:lGre{t!lfI"B~.:.E*11IfFt\t<fkJf±l t§.o W:l:M.:.E*11Ifet tt-... ~llJ ~;If!; B9f.iJ#, !t\1~fjfff±l1!1j1::ji0 ffu fI" ¥3~ f±l1!lm7tZ -B~J.:.E* (9) , ~
@f±lt§.~.:.E*~-Mm~~~m.,~.~~f±l~~~~~o~f±lQ~*••~:&~~.B9 11% jlj 15?6, ;1;Il1tiJt~l:fffiiJ-1l9IEI rn~~B9~.~~o 1966!rf.;l'tfmf±l.~ 15,548 =f0P«, 1~iJt~~~.t¥J 6.51%, ttt~~=*~~*B9E.iJ.!i
!'fl!rf-t¥J~.~IH~M~ 4.76%, rnJlt"ilfJil.~~~*~ EI rn~~~*m~B9~&Z:rn:T 0 (~Jil.* 4-4)
~!l2~n&i, 1966 :¥t=rJ!lB9~*1'.~.!t\lm-lli":ns;§t011ij{, ~Jt.~*1'.~
~-sA~~~P«,~$~~-slm~;§t011ij{, ~~~-s=~~011ij{; @rn~
t=rJ!l ... t=rJJt.~~$~~~*,*~~~*~A~~ffl, ~JIt~T~~U~~Y~
I±la ~!l2~B9~*±~~A~El*, ~!rf-3Ul\iA~*~JjIj~.lt$**, 1fTU~
f±l!l2~~~~f±l~Z~*~!l2~m~~&:l:~~~y,JITj~~~*m~:l:~~~
*m~B9±~~~*o (~Jil.* 4-5)~~:l:!l2~B9±~~*~f±l~,rn:Jn~~l:~~~,~~~*~~~m~l:
~fjf§~~~~*:t§t1i:~, @itf±l Q.JITj~, ~~J!:IG:&~~B9~7tZ~a ~"ilf~
* 4,-6 Jfi1&-IIl*~f±l*o
(9) ~~~IiIL!il: ~~B'jIt!!.l1I!flJJjjG:llb P. 630 c
( 30 )
-115-
*- 4--4 ~J!Jl&-f.l:.;jl~A.."'~*P'" ¥til.:'f01!i1!i
CAl (B)CB)
CC)(A)l00% (B)
~!i: &:~.iliot ffl: !If.
(§fi5~1j;fJ) (1\)100% ~~:I: (C) (C)l00%
1953 ' 80,689 3,337 4.14
1954 68,784 1,952 2.!!4
1955 72,976 2,746 3.76
1956 78,117 2,990 3.83
1957 77.355 3,275 4.23
1958 85.251 4,588 5.38
1959 97,149 5,602 5.77
1960 99.240 5,659 5.70
1961 91,388 7,457 8.16
1962 91.604 10,850 11.!!4 210.864 43.44 5.15
1963 '102.093 11,145 10.92 221,756 46.04 5.03
1964 88,504 12.182 13.76 215,352 41.10 5.66
1965 103,746 15,158 14.61 226,351 4~83 6.70
1966 '104,585 15,548 14.87 238,775 43.80 6.51
1967 119.948 12.935 10.78
1968 111,125 14.958 13.46
if.M*~: CA) J1i:Mi§l U.S.D.A. Crop Production, 1953-1969
(B) :r&MiF! U.S. Foreign Agricultural Trade by Commodities
Calendar Year 1968.
( C) :r&Mi§l F AO: Production Yearbook 1967.
(=) 1I.3i~iJtf~~I!!D
~~@~~fia~~m;~W~*.A~*M~.~m~.~.~m.,~
~m,M.g,*~.~,.D.,.m.om~.~wm~~~m~~w••~,~©~.m.ffi~*~~.~~,~w••~~m~*ffi~o~~~~~~il'~[jJ~ffi-m~W~*m~~.~25m~ (oligopoly) , {lml¥:!~~~1m~lJJl.~
{lmilJlSlt (price leader system) 0 {lmFJ{JlJJl.~~~~m, rmJtflliilmWmEfJ~
*7I-~{lmJlljm%iff~m~*{lm8~flllJrm~tJJo
.~ 1954 %jlj 1966 %~m1¥J~*31tI=l{lm~fi(10), wHl'!.~m~*1¥J{lm
~M.g~*8~J{lmEfJTI~Jiffilmf*~ (linear correlation coefficient) i'i"li~
0.9 (tE 0.5% 89M~*~iWJ~r', Wj~1¥Jffilmlmf*~M~8~J); \If.J;ltIlrl3,89.mw l=11ltm;fIJ~m31tI=lEfJ~m~*31tI=l{lm8~rii~ffilmf*~y}\r~~ 0.7 (:(E 1% M~*~I'i~) ; ~m31t 1=1 8~J~m~*{lmW~*ffJ1:.~~{lmB~tffi lmt~:f{2Jj\il1li~
~Q) ~~11f.M*§ FAO: Production Yearbook, 1967.
( 31 )
~ 4-5 a $. a .:r _ A. .1:. Al 111 .IN it -.I" tt. 4l ~ fil.~;=f~1lIJi .........en
1959 1960 1964 1965 1967 1968 IWI J.Jtl
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If{il Jt frJ Ifcil Jt ~J Ifcit Jt ~J fltcll: Jt ~J Ifc:l: Jt ~J •• Jt 911-------~---
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~ W 338 37.02 184 13.59 1,545 47.83 2,302 67.04 1,511 47.44 2,327 57.57
I\iiJ m j! 270 29.57 428 31.61 11 0.34 9 0.26
~ a 189 20.70 314 23.19 722 22.35 576 16.77 691 21.70 623 15.42
'"'~
'-' Jfl ~ - - - - 147 4.55 243 7.08 73 2.29 49 1.21
F.lJ te - - - - - - - - 101 3.17 9 0.22
;It fIB* 116 12.71 428 31.61 805 24.93 304 8.85 809 25.40 1,034 25.58
1} itt 913 100 1,354 100 3,230 100 3,434 100 3,185 100 4,042 100
-• ;ltfIB§fl;miJF~1ll&!!j§'llfo
.~*~: s*~~~~m~~:~~~~M~,~*'-n~n~o
-117-
~ 4-6 1-~.Ljjt~A.-J:~J:l:P'" 'lflDl.:0.
( A) (B) (C)(B\OO% (B)
~Jjll~fif3i'~ ~!\Ii3i* ~~3i*~.li.l: mot mot (A) rc~)100%
.._---
1950 26.900 12.630 2,440.096 46.95 0.52
1951 41,70J 22.562 2,542,208 54.11 0.89
1952 44,800 25,162 2.539,795 56.17 0.99
1953 51,100 34.711 3,337,260 67.93 1.04
1954 62.30J 36.976 1,951,711 59.35 1.89
1955 67,500 68.186 2.746,102 101.02 2.48
1956 114,80J 81,490 2,989,876 70.98 2.73
1957 136,80J 64.337 3,274,545 47.03 1.96
1958 186.3JJ 162.914 4,587,903 87.45 3.55
1959 317.200 236,781 5.602.292 74.65 4.23
1960 543.900 514,745 5.658.505 94.64 9.10
1961 598.300 567,236 7.457,175 94.81 7.61
1962 665.400 472,405 10,849,809 71.00 4.35
1963 857,700 744,046 11,145,019 86.75 6.68
1964 935,100 1,115,041 12,181,608 119.24 9.15
1965 1,021,300 804,380 15,158,047 78.76 5.31
1966 1,122.40J 1,218,537 15.548,460 108.57 7.84
jfM*iJE{: Ministry of Agriculture, Thailand: Agricultural Statistics of
Thailand 1966. Bangkok 1968.
D,B (tE 0.5% iH!f7Mgll~) 0 tt.~~J1lm.*'l, :fl(;1l"lm~t.J.mM~m::E:*
Rdltj!f.::E:*1lmi¥J1iJt$~0
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( 33 )
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~~~t!Jo wm~.=K*-flm;!El;J.~m:t:*{lm~'Pil.$~,IZSIJlt**~J!!.=K*B9~
t!Jtb~1mfiiJ, Vriij,ijl~m.=K*-flmEfJ~t!J~~iJij5£ 0
~+~~*ro~m~~~~~~~~, OC~~~.=K*¥&OO~~.~~~~
iI1li~tb~o !Mt~:E*fi:~ITfi~&~~*~!~t!J, illtt\~:I:;J;jllflHHE,~~ii1JUo tE1960 ~J;J.1VJ, !Mt~:=E:*~JmJtI}j\!tt1Ju~~tk:, {!3J't~!l~If±~l:1:.~~!tt1JUo ~
:mi~n\1;T 1:.~~~J, ~~{lm:fH.~-m:(12)o 1961 ~J;J.{&, ~m:E*{lm"'M&l:
([11 ~R:J1J 1967/1968 A~.:li*J(~11ib5E "Agreement on Maize Transaction BetweenThailand and Japan for 1967/1968 Season" A,*,.:li*5(~mt:t:BiH'#r0J:t*~
tlllT: . §!:fr~~.:li*mt:t(F .O.B.) = ~~.:li*z:hlJjlfzp.~AA.1!i:mt:t+~~liH:r3lIJEL*$Q~~~~~~~-,*,~~D~A*~D~~-~*m~fflWn-~~~-~~~+
ft~~o
U21 ~ j,f F AO: The Stabilization of World Trade in Coarse Grains - AConsideration of the Underlying Economics Issues. Tokyo. 1964.
( 34 )
-lJ19
Jlr"':-'1l1i~1j 1967*, El3~~lft!ll3i*,:i}JMt,ll.:rffl~tID~,I&JIt~fI'~NtlMt~,' ill~~ra'::E*1l~ffJJ-:7t~El3Wfli~:fS:a~Ji:JJp:k~~~iI:~Jjt1Jno~~::E:*
~m.Ji1Jn$~195:3if-flj 19q6q:.~~@I~1illt; Wft isso ~tl.lW3i*ffJll~
\ll'f~, ~~~~Jtit1Jrlt¥/J'~1=.ifiJi1Jrl$, Jllj 1961 q:.tl.~3i*llf1HtJ@17Tl&~
~'~Ji1Jrl$/NnlfilJt:li1.m$fJf¥Zo 1953 if-jij 1960 if-~m::E:*;m:fS:2Fjt:jJ!iPJ$~
2.97?6, 1961 if-~ij 1966 :9.'.EN2Fjt:j!fiPJ$~:p~,2. 73%, [lSlJlttt~m3i*1¥JfI
~:l:Ji1Jrl$~1l'Jn 2.73-2.97 76 Lra'o ~~1±-~~~jlj~tl.~m~~-~m
••ffJ~OO~~~~-*~~~~,W::E:*®m~•••A~~m5ffJJi~••
*~,~1±~~~~-~~~~,1=.;mffJJi~t¥.*~lfilJtJi~~1±ill~~M
pgll~~r\ll'f8~~~o jl!rT~~~J)3, ~JtJi1Jrl$~i'iJi*~~~Ji1Jrl$,il~~
tmJ::~, ffil:~Ij~-*:Blj~~Jl:o t!OJ!:t, il~-~-t!W.nlt-1rI!l7t~ENmlmo ~
5W 4-3 *,~{r'*~:tl!fj~rl;).';f)H:I.i, ~~::E*{l~a~mlmtl. 20 if-m-!iJ)3, 1940:9'-flJ 1960 :9'-~-ml!R, 1961 :9'-~1j 1980 :9'-.~~-1rI!l::m-®~mo 1960 :9'-~IJ 1970
:9'-ra' El3:tn1=.~Jt1Jrlt¥/J'~lfilJtJi1Jrl$, ll~••J::~o 1967 :9'-El3:tn'!JlX{l~Mft
?t\ll'f1li:, {§. 1961 :9'-~IJ 1968 :9'-ill~~;M~J::E:*1=.~2p.jt:j!fiJJ${i:& 2. 97?6 0 jI
~l~Hlb,\)fi5gf 1969 :9'-H~1o.~.Jt 1968 :9'-~1li:, ~As 1969 :9'-~:l:B~2p.jt:j!f11J
t¥.1li:~ 2. 97?6, ~JIt, 1970 :9'-Fq~m3i*1l~®7T~~RfmWla9o
50¢. r-----,----r----,r---,---.----,-----,
4·7~
fj 4.4/
~'WfJC/3.1E~rr •.46
3.IS
2·13
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.2;;0
16'1 l\1.51
1.J6
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19~5 195, 1160
{=)3i*iI*&~~~l!1h
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-:9'-Fq)§.~*lI~El3~~*~~~*~~®~.,~~m~~*~~~o~
( 35 )
-120-
jjjjllSl1.l~JIt~*~~*liltl~III~*~~*fji~il-E~IHi*,.A~III~*Mft~
J1t~*1lmB9¥IiI!IIJWilll~/J'o
~m~*~~~~~~~W~li~~~,W~A~~~~., ~~~A~L
m,n~~~m~*1lm~~~~~,~m~*~~n~~~~~o~~ffi~~
*>FIfil¥J?i-il1l, =t:*llm~i!WU:7t-, ~~=.~ j%ljlm~, ffi~:li*ff:l:~j?, 11m~~J]Ji., lif! :¥l1i\f3 3i:*~~>F~, fJ{f~WHt.ltl5t.5E(ll)o
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1959-1£60 ¥&: fil!'ff7i:/-0FT
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 ZjS:f?J
~ ~ 1.84 1.68 1.67 1.74 2.06 2.06 1.87 2.00 2.02 2.15 1.91
f~ ~ 96 88 88 91 108 108 98 105 106 112 100
j)fff*~: Kasetsart University, Production and Marketing Problems
Affecting the Expansion of Corn Growth in Thailand. P. 82.
~~*~m~*~~~~:I:~fJ{m~~~.*B~.~~.;.~=~~~
~,~**ff.j?,fJ{m~~, ~W.~j?; E~~~fl~.mffi*,3i:*ft~
ff1~, >F'ft7'l-~, l&~W~=)HIjI\.fl~?i-$i'JVk*, ~$'~:l:1J!l3t~~$'f'jB~ 8.81
%, *~llM~~~a~~~.~oftfl~~£*~m,ffi*B~, ~~~.~
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I¥JW7tz=T~(H), f31~~ff*.~AalfJ{B~.m=t:*U~W~o ~.m=t:*
llM~~~~.~~~.m3i:*,~Z, ~{lM~~~~~j?~~.m~*,>F
m.-e-:sf~RtZm-, ITifftt!Lli~M-e-••m~B;Jw~, jjU~£t~j(I=l~*~*ffiJS:
*1¥.IWl~, ~j?fJfllm~x*~B~~m. ~~*.ittt:*~A*jp7tM~~tUl
ft.~ 4-10 H1!-UUIj1f=:~I¥Jftff, {!HP{I:UPl'~B9~W~iIt~~*;$1=l~*~
!I:*~5tIl~~lIJo =:~ra', ,**~jjff1=l.~~~Ji11Q, m.11o.lt17lJ~, 6 fl ~Ij 8 Jl
3m $JS Kasetsart University, Production and Marketing Problems Affecting the Expansion of Corn Growth in Thailand, Bangkok. Thailand.Nov. 1962. P. 82.
a4) i1~.:E*~:Jm5HiE!~$!la~ 2-3 0
( 36 )
-121-
~ 4--9 ~ ail.!. ;tl ~r jJi +JfJ JJ .iIJ tt.~71..1t~1959-1961 ...: ~.
¥til . • ~: ~~j[;/~.
Jll5t 9f..~Jl l'11Ht~ 7'1·~¥-/R l'W:mtk*
1 24,670 5.59 1,084 99
2 10,391 2.35 1,119 102
3 5,612 1.27 1,146 105
4 2,885 0.65 1,143 1045 2,345 0.53 1,265 1166 941 0.21 1,098 100
7 3,444 0.78 1,151 105
8 13,352 3.02 1,036 95
9 41,181 9.33 1,009 92
10 105,372 23.87 1,033 94
11 136,573 30.94 1,021 93
12 94,671 21.45 1,036 95
-friit 441,437 100 2jS..lS] 1,095.08 100
* 7'~jfJ{I.j§zl'1iHi£~t:l:;J1.8IJ2jS.JS]~ilHJo
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890 6 ~~1j8~~l=lltlllt{7lJ~tY'~~~, :=:~rb'~tY' 25.7376, 2 ~~IJ5~~
1=l~.ltM.~••89*~,*~ID~~*M3~9~~1~~~I=l,E~·~.;ff 61.73% l'ls~*~Jltflif~l=lo (~J!~ 4-10)
R;mE-th~4IJE-t-t;~It.~I=l~*~~9076 *13~m, l1S1Jltmlo/3~B9
~1=l~*~!rnHlm::c.~Jtill!iYJ;frl~m~*1Jt~1lm::c.~Jtill!ifrID~o (~~~ 4-11)
~ 4-10 i: ;~ i1!. p .!.;\l~ ~ .iIJ it... 7j- iil!. ¥1:ft: ~PiIJ\
~~ ~:i:79: 2-5 R 6-8 ~ 9-1 ~ if ~(R;m) -s5tlt---~----_.._-
55 ~. 12,973 25,850 33,091 71,914
% 18.04 35.95 46.01 100
56 ~:I: 46,000 36,800 100,506 183,306
% 25.09 20.08 54.83 100
57 ~. 118,835 43,284 261,482 423,601
% 28.05 10.22 61.73 100
JUH1~.llJl( : .;M\J!Ii~Mf.ijftlBto
( 37 )
-122-
~ 4-11 ~ ;"i1!. P .LAl?t3lf.:ft~t-"* ap~ :ftJ(~m 56 III 57 ~) I(J.nz: "1l..~/(i:;:!T
A 5J1J 1 2 3 4 5 6
11 ~ 2.49 2.49 2.43 2.39 2.50 2.55
f~ • 106.60 106.28 104.03 102.32 107.03 109.17
A 5J1J 7 8 9 10 11 12 ljS.Jt,j
11 ~ 2.12 2.27 2.13 2.14 2.21 2.34
1~ :@I{ 90.76 96.96 90.97 91.40 94.40 100.00
~,ff*iim: 101:& 4-100
j!;;mn+n~U*, Eirti~Ji J:I ::Ii:*~tl~::Ii:**JP7tMB9Mil-, ~W~.3i
*{lmB9*JP~mbjijB1n./Eo flm*JPfl!!!l!fJ.SltEfJiftji>h nrtE~~~.::Ii:*~it!!
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i-%It~ 0.1538, Ii+-l:::'if-:fL}j3!lJn+/\'if-i\}jB~J::Ii:*flmjjt~i-%It~0.0748,
=:'if-IrJ] f~IH~: 1'*1t~il!:ifB 54. 6915, ,@Umooj@ffi¥;il J:I ::Ii:*~*1J ::Ii:*flmEftt(/EfFfflo
~m=.8~7t,j:ff~, :ftfl"~l:l:Hlf+'if-*JU~.'li*fi~fiTI., :tE::Ii:*flm~{j&
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J'!tiSt*11*: 1. 51 :¥fU 53 :¥J'!tiStffl 13: {iiJ~lljJ, ".~fVM)f{@~z.~~
~~.~~», ~~~: 9=t~.M~~~~,.~~~~X_
~ No. 3 R;~1i+-t:¥, ~ 15J{o2. 55 :¥JiiStffl 13: ~9'XM, §~.~IIjMIjj!jzWf~, ~:f",J{o
3. 57 :¥J!tMi**WfJEP)fw.IB!EJiMo
~*~*~W~~*~~~.fF,~~~~~~~~f1J=~fFo=~fF~~
:nJj fUfLJj r",.m:if, t&~'I':¥iVr~llm~~.o ~;MfFi*~Jj fULJ:QJj r",-nt,t&~iVr:¥~llm~.o~~, ~*~*~~~.~:
~*~*.mOO.=f(~*~*~:¥mmoo.,*~,n~,~*
iVr:¥:&'I':¥~m) · ········(5-3)
2.•~=tr.*Z~~m9lf{:
.~~*~W~~~~~.fF,*~.~.=K*#~.~m±o.~±~~.
fFfF~~itillf1J*5l., ?'!,\ffiitm~FJf;lit, Wi:ifZ9=t U*~f1J3:*t':E.~~~, t&U
~:¥*~~mf1J.=K*llm~.~~*.~~~.~~o ~~;.~~*~R;~~
+fL:¥?~W~~, ~~"fF~,.R;.M~~~.~m~A~~~.~*, ~
~lIifr,,'§!lf{#1iJ;;1jJ.l~~.~~; .~m~~%(tm{iiJ-ili.~~:¥B~-¥&OO~~¥i:i:
B9~Bo [f,JJl;t.~~*fjU~m9lf{~:
.~~*.~OO.=f(iVr~~*~m,iVr:¥*~llm,IIif~,iVr:¥
!\'!.&~:i:) ··..·..·..(5-4)
(=) t1fiNI:xt (Statistical Models)
J.:OOW~rm~.~~~~;jtj-~W~:I!I!~J.:B~J$IjIJi,~~l&1:&~I!Q~m..ffi'ffilmi*lf{ (zero-order correlation coefficient) *:1j~ ~131!1t (indep-
( 40 )
-125~
-endent variable) r",j~1i;;ff?1litlE.:"ffirmfHEo tal:!f:1if?1litlE.:"ffiIlJl, fjlJ:3i:JmWIi\ifig"ffirm(BJ!lr{~Ij~~<P-{l8i, u*mnX:~~m,g- (multicollinearity); ~:m~
~m'S(BfHE~OC~~{\i'!l731j~ ~lt)iJf~1f~J~.jJ;fIl~~~ (standard error)
.~ut5:E(17)0
:m~Ij73IjWI~~lr{r",jBt~~llim:B'~~,11U"ffiIlJlf*lr{ 0.8 ~~Ij73IJZ~fjlj, ::E'i\ifiif:: 0.8 fllj~7Jd:tWIEHf~ltr",l~1f*~~mil'(18)0 ~if::~~IJ~m-{falJ!lr{, fllj~f1'R
llJJ.iJIiil*i;lt5:EJ&1%o tE5'\ (5-1) q" lli¥r",jfU)iJf~(B"ffirmf*lr{i\ifi~ 0.98, JJ!~*~/fm:J'Ul9lli¥M~~0 tE5'\ (5-2)-q" $1BIHlmfUFJf~(B"ffirmf*lt~ -0.94,-m:%1t{lm7,'UFJf~(B"ffiImf*ltm0.21,. *ll!1%%1t~{lm[t;l*o Iili~{lmfUFJf~
B~j"ffirmf*lr{~ -0.89,. :re~Ejjf1lmfUFJf~B9"ffirmi*lt~ -0.31, *JJ!~Jtli$f
1lm 0 :ff:5'\ (5-3) q" mif::*lifU:re~Z~miID.~{lmB~J"ffirmf*ltj~mit
frOC, ill~1;;lE1¥;1¥J:m~ ~ **R~:re~{lm~/f~il"i;~W.:E:*~;jfjiID.Z~
~,W~~ffl*R~;jfjiID.,m~~~~otE5'\(5~)q,,~~.~.:E:*¥tt
OO.~:l:fU*~~3t3i:*B;;"ffirmf*ltm - O. 04, WI~l¥.lrmi*/f~Ii:, *Jru~¥
{ft~:I:/f71j1!.i~.~~0 *R~~iID.fUlli¥r",jt¥Jmrmf*lr{~ -0.86, llOJru)iJf~
.~=tt*~%~r~~, t&~~MiID.t¥JJi~~*R~Mllii.t¥J~., 'llt/ftalltIJ(I1"FB9~., ~Jrt, ~*5[~;jfjiID.W'i¥1lli¥r",j~lr{o J:~~gijt!ctiIH@~JJ., ~;1JILI:.
~~~~~~lit~5'\1!rn':A r A
Q';'=f(P::\, Pet' 1,)+ U, ·······.··································(5-5)
A f A f GQ,=fCIu Pet' Pst, P,)+Ut ····························(5-6)
Hj t =f(P~ ,-I' T) +U t ···(5--8)
.J:71j~5'\q,19'~z~~talr.. :A
~~.: Q';'=~A~~1tm.:E:*::I:
Q; =~A~~fnJ*'l=tt*1I~:I:Hit =tE*=tt*~~iID.
n, t =.3t=tt*:MMiID.
rcl~lt: P::\ =#~1t~!~jtMjt~{lm
P~ t =#~=tt*~:L1!!t1t~1lm (.~~=tt*t:)
U7l J. Johnston. Econometric Methods. ±~~J~: iM':II:~l;!f~:1J*, a;ft, ~lii
1i.i"i?F, ~ 235 J!{0
US) #;Iof W. Candler. An Aggregate Supply Function for New ZealandWheat. Journal of Farm Economics. Dec.• 1957. P. 1735.
( 41 )
-126-
"It =llIif.4itAJlt.I'Jf~
P~= lllif.±ifUll~:llMlt~ilm
Ps t = lllif.:re1:.$t~:l1!!i±t~ilm
HI t-l = 1mif-1E*:::E:* ti1iBOO.
P~ t-l= 1mif-£*~:l1!!i±t~ilm (~3tfiEk*t:)
Hot =lllif.:*Rti1iBOO.T =llifrl31 (1,2,3, , n )
(:=.) i1.~1I!HI~~1l
~*~L~~~~Z~~~~, ~M.~~fl~~~~~o~~(5-5)~
A~Jf~;fOflf~:l:EN;j:§~JI!\'i, *¥~fjJHitiEB~~, ~~ (5-6) ~A.pJf~;fUm~j[
~j;jft~~HEl:~li1lrJl, ~~ (5--7) ::-E:*{lm;fLlfi!~ffi]fJ(8~ffi~JI!\'i!llf6;!E1E[*J*o
fNut~~ (5-5) /G~1nflH!gjm7t:if[$, rJn~tl2f-'~~t!.J$mffiZ(l9)o ~~ (5-6) RJrn:ffl*Jt~~J)g!'llfjJ~~(Semi-logarithmic multiple regression
equa~ion)C~O)o ~~ (5-6) tRffl*W~-n~~B~!TJ-~El3;!Efolfl3i:*Er'JrIHlt:l:
(J!\t~~EBrl!FJ::I:) RJ~ili.~~mm~~1j (Engel's law) B\t~~o ~~ (5-7)
RJrn:m1E[*~~fJnjg!~jJ~~(multiple linear regression equation) 0 ~~m
1l~$;!E~~~IUJ8~it1JQTfjj¥~~~~, ftlj~~ (5-8) ~ffl*Wlt~o tRfflfttJ\2f-'jJrt; (least-squares method) WP¥!'-jJ;@~~.PJfm~lt~11iIiJE~~J]':!uz:M~(i1i: (expected value) ~'%, ;Jt~~lt~-@I!Elt~$;"lto ~~J]':!~!i'IJ-l~
~~;j:§lmtf1E, ~~~~rf:7U*jlm (Serial correlation) #1E~~)£:(Assurn
ptton) , PJf*t~EBf*lt:;t;!E" fti1~~/Gi!il\ill!J5E1lli" (best-linear-unbiased
estimates);
El31n*~~if-*£*{lm±~~~~~£*~*I'Jf~.,£*{lm~£*flf
~:I:;f01:.~:l:B\JIfJJ ffi:;lE¥ I'\J (one way) 1Ul~, ~P3,'*{lm~.1:.~:I:;frl1\i~:I:
TIff~~tZ-n rPJ89~. 0 .PJf~~£ *fI~:I:, 1mif-~;j:g OOfJ(1lt4-if-ti;j:gOO.;fO$il{l
mtt£*1\i~.Et-JIUl{'-%ili.~;!E¥rPJB9o fNutl:~::::flEl~~1iJffl¥-jJtii~1JQtl/llil
!Eo
(1!9) Jl:lr.i1.g~mm!¥Jj!n4
~~@R~M~*1\i~~lt,1E*~*~~~lt,~3t:::E:*~~~lt~~M
~ltF,Ff~~~fl~7Ij~Q~ 5-2, 5-3, 5-40
(19' tlI1;~·filIi:P:; (5-5) ~~E'*tt~tiU!jl)~J.f:f!E.~(Semi-logarithmic multiple regres-. '. . R2(n-m-1) _
sion equation) ;It*G:!f1:t}: '/'l1;Ef*~:t:f1t, R2=O.4262, ffl F=Tl=I~2)(m) 1m*;1f~ "~a~tjUfill~ffi~~1t:~" ~1N~ (hypothesis). 9l'Jml'*1IE1ll (reject)1N~, tlp~~~tfE'l~~(t-J~lll~f*slE:;r:m~o
**00 ffl~:t:t~ilU~1IEil\JIjqJ#.:E*$I!=., t!J.$I!=?JTt~H'& E1=8.17oo6290 tmffl E1 *1IEil\JI**$I!=!I,;;:r;~:I'*~'I'~0
( 42 )
-i27-
~ 5--2 ~1# .I:.~1;~.£Jit )f#
{f-511j ~AilJ-M.:li 4ftA.Yi:1f .:li*~:Il!! 7E~,*~:Il!! B.l:m~:lfI!*~I!it m- 1~ 1Jt~1I*IS- m~1I~ 1Jt~1J{*IS-
(~~)(1~fT) ( j(;) (jG/-0!T) (jG/-0fT) (jG/-0fT)
48 1.2175 4.901 2.58 4.3732 29.03
49 0.9915 5,033 3.32 5.0379 26.85
50 1.2019 5,281 3.20 4.3487 27.68
51 1.2682 5,419 3.11 3.9164 27.01
52 2.0868 5.913 2.13 4.4201 25.25
53 2.5181 6,716 2.27 3.8070 24.82
54 6.2718 6,903 2.94 4.1725 27.81
55 6.7498 7,241 2.82 4.5277 27.54
56 12.0817 7,712 2.47 4.6098 28.35
57 26.7018 8,271 2.13 3.9870 28.97
~M*ijjjQjUll~:
-, ~A~iff;ljM~~i1l:{*dt;;J!fjHl1f§T.mti1tz?~£J:j:J.:li*WiJMm!i:~l::(~if.~i9J
AoJlltiffi~o
.:::., ~A.Yi:~,Ij)f~1*m The Research Institute of Rural Socio-Economics,National Taiwan Univ., Long-Term Projections of Supply, Demandand Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan. 1969, P.48 J:j:JZ "Adjusted Per Capita National Income".
~,.:li*~:Il!!1Jt~1J{~,~~~~:Il!!1Jt~1J{~,~~~:Il!!1Jt~1J{~~~~~~~~~
*!tiftJj$lh 1!j:l::(~;ftm~~~m1}jiil:~iEZo
~ 5-3 Ii}jt .I:. :iIl~ if;~ It 1t#
'$51IJ :tE?>lH* WJ$1E*.:li ~.:li;~~ WJ$.:li*~ *.Rf§~f!l!~iliifl *~l1l'Iiliifl :Il!!1Jt~1J{~ :Il!!m~{I~ ilii f1f
(~~) (-0i;l'i) (-0i;l'i) (jG/-0fT) (x/ -0!T) (~i;l'i)
48 11,566 9,258 2.58 2.64 53,785
49 13,854 11,566 3.32 2.58 59,665
50 13,335 13,854 3.20 3.32 59,582
51 16.184 13,335 3.17 3.20 55,009
52 14,504 16,184 2.13 3.17 55,223
53 12,237 14,504 2.27 2.13 50,970
54 13,281 12,237 2.94 2.27 53,176
55 14,615 13,281 2.82 2.94 51,326
56 14,452 14,615 2.47 2.82 52,302
57 14,376 14,452 2.13 2.47 49,461
~M*~&~~:-,:tE*.:li*~~oo~ffi~{f-*m-~.:li*~~iliiflJ:j:J~~~~~.:li*~l1l'Iooflo
.:::., *R~Miliif1f~~jU~{f-*o
( 43 )
-128-
~ 5-4 ,f{l~At.l:.;Jt~~~it )f#
~JJlj $"5t:li* .=:tt*~:l&fttfiITii:ll 1lt~{lm llifffij
(~ID(~IJi) (5f:J£:JT)
50 1,957 3.20 1
51 2,173 3.20 2
52 5,388 3.17 3
53 8,320 2.13 4
54 5,423 2.27 5
55 7,713 2.94 6
56 9,559 2.82 7
57 7,126 2.47 8
Jt*,t?~~: .~.=:tt*fit1llITlifi!tM 13 !'Ht!tci "1i1tf"F~}igHf'i1ifti~g;HIHlf" 0
(-) folit'43i=*II~.~.
1\ r *** 1\Q t = -407.8221087+ 51. 9483447 Log It --32.5300554 Log P~ t
(18.9204758) (22.9672309)
*** G-6.3711513 Log P s t+163.5550042 Log P t ·········(5-9)
(41.1857849) (65.5455702)
RS=0.8291 D=2.0779 E 1 =0.8449 (57~)
(=) :(Bl~3i*~~D..ellil.
* * tHit = 11,181.8888519+ 0.3924125 HI t-t+ 2220.5254144 P ct
(0.22249447) (1201.50974959)
* *+1559.8766200 P~t_t-0.23832382Hot .. ···· .. ···· .. ·(5-10)
(1056.54449835) (0.15206567)
RS=0.67 D=2.9312
r ***HJ t =3221.9615627 -3385.468455 Log P ct_t+7341.232024 Log T
(10594.8815) (2528.7424)
······· .. ·· ... · .. ········ .. ···(5-11)
D=2.7273
( 44 )
-129-
l:rU1ti\>F, R2~~~f*tt (coefficient of determination) , :Jtlf(JW:
~!V'F~fii!lf(~ilJJ*~~ElW~mf¥l¥J~ito fJlJtUl~ (5-9) Z R2=0.83, J!D~
~fnl*'1~7Untill¥J~~83% :l!w:A~J{pJfm, ~*it:llMJtR1l~ ... :rt1:.$fit~~R~m ... ~w~~~~m~~~~~~iIJ~~~l¥Jo
D~wHltl:l! (Durbin-Watson) ~\ff{@:, ffl ]j'Ij~1-l~JJ.i~Jlj;ffi 1m (serial
correlation) ZiJ~, ~ Durbin-Watson ~7lj~&~~iJ 10 ~Il!Jj~JW:~m
llt, {§.D{fFf~~m:m-2:ti, JtMl\l;J'fJUffilm1'ftE ( 21)o
:P}:st1t 13 ~lt7-1*lt*IDt, A (5-9) M7F~ J{pfrt!};fQfnl*'t::fr*~~;;:~@
~~~1*Ai~l'fi', Jt*:l!-re~~m(22)0 fnl*'t::li*PJf~.t1 (E I ) ~IE 0.84, JlDFJf~~1JQ 1?6 Hif, fnl*'1~*$~:ll:Jm~1JQ 0.84?6 0 :rt1:.i)~~mfr-'J{~@~1*It~
~:l!ftm,*7F:rt1:..~~~~Hif,:rt1:.~l¥J$~.*~,fnl*'t::li*~.~~•• ~~, ~~~~.~7F,:rt1:.~~~*tEfnlM~~lmmtt~:l!~~ft.~W:l!
1L~~Mt1tffJ$~ (joint demand) 0 lZSl~:rt1:.tlftEfnl*'t>FftH:J5~s1'{, W~*
::t~tE*~'tJ!U5}, "I&=:ti1L~ "~Mt1tl¥J$~" ~:m1t;@.o fnl*'t~*~{l~.t1i*
.tt~m~, ~0?~7F ~ 1Wll.fnlM.=s:*.~B~~1JQ~~*1l~~~~tt&**
~1m1*o~{l~~fnl*'1~*.~l¥J~~mm.:l!IE~,~7F~{l~l:~~~~fnl
M~*.~~)~1JQ, 7'C~~1t91 {$.~l¥J;@.iffiljo
A (5-10) >F~~ fj ~.~tE*±*~~mj;j.~MZ~IfJl1*~IlT~t1*~i'tl
A (5-11) >F~:5t±*B~J1:.it1l~5l'I!t1f*.:l!ftf@:,~7Fi;{lm~~lli'j,
~:5t:E*~~[Bjfl(O?r!\jj1JQo~:5t:K*f*~~W~~89~~,.~fi~~~~m
Jllf'F~.~~*, £I. El31nJt1:.~~~m, ne*'1~~1J~it;;:~?ili, il~~fia-'J9Ji.
@~*, t&~~Hr!\~~, R~tE?t-*lI!!]jl:, ~~[Bjfl(O?r!\~~j)Qo W£l.ilI)
~~*{lmtf*~~~[Bjfl(a9~mlmf*~~m*, til.~*~m~~:5t±*~~ffii
tyt;ffft~.89miffilj, tt~llJ~o JX~HifMI!.~J~mf*.tE 2.5% m~*lI!!J!n¥
m~, ~~~~~]jffirn,.~±*~~OO.~m.I~~~.~*o~~:l!m
~~~~~±*~~OO.~~*1l~~~ffiIm89~~0
*~±*zm~&~~~~~~~~B~l:~,~:P}~_~~Z~**~~
**:I:*Z~ 1=1:1:0**~*~ 1=1 :I:~Jtrf7U~A*mt5:
r2U H. Theil. Economic Forecasts and Policy, Second Revised Edition 1965.P.223.
Cl2 iliimMf*'ik (Partial Regression Coefficient) tEJ::~1f~1il.m.lit;g-:tE2.5% •
~*~.~, wHi.m.9,t~tE 5% .~*~M~, -JiI.m.littE 10% .~*~.~o
( 45 )
-130
~*~Q.=~ftz*~~t+~mz*.~.+.mz*.~.
+m~z*t-~*z*~at-~z*~at
············.················-(5-12)
:m*14z*~(::tjI:, g:{7tBIj*~ (5-12) :.ti~4}:q{o
(-) fiJ*43L~•••-iltm*fi5wt..im~f1i~B9m~;I!
Q,=Q'-1(1+EIHgI) ············ .. ·· ........ ·.. ··· ...... ·.. ·.... ·(5-13)
II
Q, : 1i5wt~4lJA~ft~*~~:I:
Q'-l : iW~~A~ft~*fMJf:i:E U - 1 : iW~B9f.iJ~z*'f1f~FJf~(FJ5!Jtt (57 ~m 0.8449)
gI : FJf~1i\1;-;l~$ (4.81%)
Q, : mf.iJft.:K*~~fi5wt:l:
p, : 1i5wt~mAI:1., .fi5wtJX;m1lI:n:+jr.~B9Al:1m 14,454,307
A, ~Tgg~:m 16,044,818 A, ~Tjr.~i'i 17,704,427
A( 83 ) o
59
64
69
28.87
34.30
39.72
417,326
550,304
703,287
·· ... ···· ..... ···· .. ···· ..... ·· .... · .. ····· .. ·········(5--14)
(=) :a:m3L~.~.
tUliWJiiFJf~, ~~FJf~;fIJitm.:K*Tf!l.:l:B9mli*~~:j§HlIJ,~Jl:t, ffl*1i5ff~m~*'f1fJf:i:B9~~;I!:
1\ 1\
Q, =QoC1+r)D
Q,=Q,xP,1\
Q, =fi5wt~~A~m~*fM~:i:
Qo =~WI~ (JX;m1lI 57~) ~Aitffl.=li*'f1f~:I: (2.1037 ~JT)
r =2fS:lt}1tffl~*~~:I:*1Jn$ (0.0874775) (~~ 47-57~)
n =fi5wt~~M§ (0,1,2, .. ·· .. ,n)
Q, =1i5wt~1tJfl:E*fM~:i:
p,=fi5wt~mAQ.
~ .~**zAOfllJWtlJ~~$*I1ilt!Ji~5-2 *4lJ:AiAJf§T14mFoJo
( 46 )
-131-
tt~n6*~llr:
~5J1j (~~)
59
64
69
2.49
3.78
5.75
35,960
60,710
101,885
c:=:) 1£*3i~'§:' if..QSj:m)j'(~1E*;fi£*Wc*€iit8~J1E*3£*~~;fimiBi.,£*ffi!l!!!lt~{J{m,
~~£*ffi!l!!!lt~~m,*R;fi~iBi.~@~~*,~1E*£*;fi~iBi.~)j'(.
~*~m~, ~~~~**1E*£*.MiBi.~~~m~.m@~~.~(~5
-10) 0
@M§••~~~M~*~••**.~~~~, ~m~~~•••, ~.~8~J1E*3i:*.MiBifef;fll.~8~£*ffi!l!!!ltRflm;}<:~., NPr1J;}<:mo mJWHlIi~*;j§.••i¥J.flt!7U~Il~ 5-3 0
tE~ 5-3 ~, ~1f'1r1J~~W;*ti£*ffi!l!!!ltRflm~Il1f:{l£8~m~0{lltEm[Q.~i'1£*{J{m8~7t:fJT., ~1f'H;o~**~Jtt3i:*{J{tfrJmIlji;i-m~£*{J{mffJ
m~®nll1f:, illm~£*~~n~~N~~Lm~m~, ~~~~m~N~~~
£*~m*m~**~£*~m,®.~~w£*~m~~~--~m~£*~
m, 1'F~ffifjl)j8~£1Jlo ~1l~.7t:fJTtE 1960 ~jU 1970 ~1E~m£*~mJ~n8SllifWl, 1971 ~~.~m£*Jm~iilf(f~, jlj 1981 ~1l}5~ft~[Eln 0 1960 ~jU 1966~~m:li*!lt~{J{m~~~Jt.Jti1JQt¥ (~Jt.JJftlt~) :m 0.03921, fUJt~m£*jt~~m 1967 ~j[J 1970 ~w&ti1JQt¥jlti, ® 1971 ~jU 1980 ~~~Jtt1JQ
$jI~, JlIJ~1l!!tE*~m1E 1967 ~jU 1970 ~, f!:I 1971 ~jlj 1980 ~mWlrl3'
N89ti~t¥#U!:m 0.039210 ~~, ~1f'ril]"mnttIJt¥0~*~ 1970, 1975, 1980~=:.~ffJ~lIt:li*~m 0
*1ti~ 1967~ 9 A fm1iX£* I3 E8~ u , ~.£*ilm1n~f!:I~~:li*{lm
~1:.wm~JJijji*, 1968 ~E81n~m~iiJ{IAfrnI~~~~:li*{lm;J:m, ]!!$
f§:13*~m£*J(~~~,~m£*{lm*~, t&. 1968 ~~imi1n.~£Wl, W~J;L 1967 ~JE1St:li*~:ttMlt~{lm~~~.£1Jl~:m~~o
tE~ 5-3 ~, ~1f'HQ.~~H±i§1St*R;fi:ttiiBi.n-I-~*~jI~~m~,r&Jrt~~tljmff1j¥ ~m* (Smoothing technique) m.**8~*R;fi~j1fi.o
~.0~~r-:
1 2Ht+l=H t +- L: AHt-1 ·.··········.·····························(5-15)3 i-O
~~ AHt=R t ~ H t-1 Np·nJj::::~ffJ~ii1JQfWi
nJm**~.:li*~!l!!!lt~{lmf!:I*Rm~iBi.~~~~*~~r*:
( 47 )
-132-
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
2.6675
2.7721
2.6634
2.5590
2.4586
2.3622
2.2696
2.1806
2.0951
2.0130
1.9340
1.8582
48,222.6667
47,188.2222
45,483.6296
44,157.8395
42,802.8971
41,341.1221
39,960.2862
38,561.1018
37,147.1701
35,749.1860
34,345.4859
32, 940.2807
~~~~~*~*$~OO~~~*~~~~~m~~~~~*~~~~~m
;fIl*-R$tiOO~~gg§l!.~**l'I:f@:ftA~5-1O,{¥J!JlJ*14**~*~*$ti
00.0~*~*.&Iifi~~ilt, ~ljuJfIJffl*tt.M.rnr~~.1f~~*Vif.0 ~.
1959 :¥-3i1j 1968:¥-1U4*Vif.~1f~~n:::
q, = 1467.7816+123.3152T (T= 1,2,3,. .. , 1959,T= 1) ...... (5-16)
~*14~~*~*$~OO.;fIl.&OO.~.ffi~,{¥J!JlJ*Vif.**~*~*~
it., JW*14B9~!f:!fHml":
:¥-~IJ $fiiOO. ltI-&OO.~. fIl~.(R;~) (~tJD (~JT/~tJl) (~*)
59 16,240 2,140 34,754
64 17,110 2,507 42,895
69 17,202 2,874 49,439
(119) .3'l:.3i~~~.
~rliW~JW~, fUffl 1961 :¥-3iU 1968 :¥-J¥J.*'tJW@:\l.J¥J.3Cm:E:*~~ilii.
I:j:tZ{J{m~~OO~J¥Jiltue.IH*. (partial regression coefficient) :mi'tf@:,
.~~M~~~B9m~,m~~~@~~~,~~~ffl~ffi~o~Tm~~m~
~m~, JlJ~~ml!ltjt~-lit.o ~ 5-17 ~p~ 1961 :¥-~J 1968 :¥-2JS:!tJ.=li
( 48 )
.,.-13'3 -
::*:it:j&litwtflmZ2Ji~1W;ftA:t: 5-11 FJi'~~~*:
Hj t=1731.0665g47+7341.292004 Log X ·····················(5-17)(X=2,3,4, ..·..·,n, 1961,X=2)
:p}Jmllifra'lt~ftA:t: 5-17 {!J!RJ*w.**.~:K*.miM.o
fI'llIlifWJN·M~.&ITii.it::S:Z:l~JtJmr~/l'fI{~(r = -0.23) "I&~tt'f~m
Jt~*itfi5**~.&ITli.it::S:,FJi'ffl0:t:tlllr':qt=qo(1+r)t (t=O, 1968) · · · ·(5-18)
qt =fi5~~1'1'!-&ITli.~:S:qo=£M~¥&ITlifS{it::I: (1968~, 3,2750JT)r = 1961-1968 .ll&ITli.it::S:'f~• .It~ (0.0216094)
Jmitfi5~~**~~~*~~OO.~.&OOfS{it::S:ffi~, {!J!RJ*w.**it::&:itfi51mfo itfi5~ *~rn':
~lllj fiMOO. lJ&OO.it::S: Mit::S:(R;m) (0IJO (0Jf/0tJ{) (0~.lO
59 8,736 3,418 29,860
64 10,145 3,804 38,592
69 11,119 4,233 47,067
(li) .m3t*:AI~.
~*~:K*w0~~~30~JT~T,**~*:K*~T~~:S:~:
59
64
69
487
513
516
.~~*~T~#~ffl:S:~w0~250JT, w~.R;~B.~~.,~.
~T~W~.~a~m~m~~mo~~m~~~it:~:K*.T~*~M~L~
~~fi5~*,"I&.T~~:S:#~~~~o
(~) *If@3t*:.
3i:*m~:I:~fi5~0:t:~:
3S:*m~:I:=3S:*1:.~:&:xm~~
~~3i:*~~~~~, .It~~~.m,~m~~(~~tt~~m.).fi5~
~~=f"'Zl!9 0 ~it::K*t¥Jm~~, .J.l1l (55 ~) 7At~~iI-r.Ii~ lit~-r.Ii" ~
( 49 )
-134-
1!im:tjlJi1!EI::tfa9.=:E:*m~.¥J:m4.5%, V1t~llilim .. ~~im¥tjlJm.:tf.f.*:
fN.=:E:*m$E~¥J:m4%, !BB&ilimm~~3lUmJt:tf-¥I=f:l:tf#l$E$¥J:m 1.75%(24),.~ 13 )fHmf7tm$E$mH~:;fnJJ~Olim\1'lJ, ?J}\:m 1.75%0 Jtl'!VlEmi~~(fJ~:I::m1fl
~fJf*~a~lfI~.=:E:*"f~m~$:m 2.3744%, ~ffif*~a9m$E:I::m:
59
64
69
1,696
2,044
2,317
(t) 3I.*~CJ.
Jm..tITii*t\}fN'!~~*ftA~ (5-12) *t±:la9~ I=l :l:filil*1~!A5jit 1=l.=:K**:!ita~ifl$E:I:, t<:3Jfj'l}~tJ.1.004 :t;lE.~m~i;I=l(fJ~1ito nJm~~n-t:fL~ ../\+[9~ .. /\-t;fLif..=:E:*~n ~ill1Jj@~:&~*M7URl1T:
*- 5-6 ii!. p J.:. ;;tl -J.- 1t it *- 1i[til:: -0u4iA
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)=(A)+(B):$I'\t f<iJMffl.:li :ttffl.:li* ~T-ffl.:li 13~.:li* +( C)+(D)(~[i) *$~:I: $~i!: *m:~!i: HUE; i!: iYt1m:~:I:
~.__._~,._----_._--_.- ----'._-,.__._---
59 417,326 35,960 487 1,696 455,469
64 550,304 60,710 513 2,044 613,571
69 703,287 101,885 516 2,317 808,005
(F) (G) (H)= (I )=:$I'\t ;(£.3IH* ifiltR.:K* (F )+(G) (( E )-(H)J xl.004(~&i) ~~i!: ~.iif:ill: *!.~~It :If(;Di!:
59 34,754 29,860 64,614 392.418
64 42,895 38,592 81,487 534,212
69 49,439 47,067 96,506 714,345
!Bts~~*, iJ(;11""iif~t±:l**~lSl.=:E:*a~m.~.Jm.t«tJ.~*'!-m:m±,s:--t-:fL~fRJ*'l-m.=:E:*1J!1t\\!lf1i~:l:l=f:lfNlti71J:m 91.66%, A-t:fL~:m 87.04%0 itm..=:E:*JlUffHJ!1 7.90% :& 12.61'%0
**--t-~.=:E:*mfl~:l:fNii1JQ$:m 77.40?6, 2fS~4lt~ii1JQ 8.60?6, ITii.=:E:*m1:.~:l:a94lt~2f~ii1JII$~ 5.48%, ~-m:1MM~a9ii1JQ$, t<:**.=:E:*a--'J
( 50 \
-135
~i€t$.~~~, 1L-tJL~~ 14.19%, ~-tlrn!f-~ 13.28%, ~-t:ft~~ 11.94
tE13 i€t::t:*If!, .:5C::t:* B~:11B&~~*~JI!~o 11-t:ft~.:5C::t:* it:i:fM!~*it:i:1'B 46.21%, ~-t1L~~Jtnll~ 48.77%0
~_~nM~~~~~~~m(n+A!f-~~-t-~)~~.~~M.~!f
2fi~iinll$.~~ 7.11?6 ». 6.09%, l5!:*3(fMtz~*'l::t:*~~:I:~~2fi~Jt1J1l
$. 7.61% ~~o f!.\ifjj~;i-~~~ml'B~?p, ±*~~ ... ±*~.B9.:i:~~1f,~j,', mft1t.~ ... 3I.B9.:i:~Jt'JIl, ZJJ\P!D~M~~~~.1I1!~::t:*l¥J.:I:~
~IfJtnll, t&*3(FJft5~EB~*'l'mf~it ;fOmnM~@~JlJl'Bttfim § ~ JM3E.:j:§~
::t:*;FJHJift1titIj?C$~~*'lIf!I'B±~nit7t, j[[~*m1niti!j?U)~I'B~~, {ll!
~::t:*B9rm~:l:lli itJtnllo ~~1L+-t::~'11~U lrn-tf.Jt~III, lfi1~ lrn-t-~I'B6*0
::t:*~~~~j[[-t~*~~~~I'B~~,11-t-t::~I'PJ::t:*~~OO.~=f.Jt
=f~~, ~~:I:~nf.Jt==f~*, ~~gg-ti\!f-1'B2*-.&3*0 {jilftlllJl!:, ~it
::t:*fM~~1*1i!fi ,fElliit:lftnIlBg'mf~. ITii.§.~~Jnrm~r~'I'PJ~j!§~*~*o ~~lrn
-+-i\~~O ::t:*it:m-f.Jt~=f~*, 1L-t-t::~~=:.-tlrnf.Jtgg=f~*, -t~r~'Jtnll
21.5 *, 1R~::t:;~Ji-~1I1!~~Ji!llm~0 .~~B9~1L{iL, ~i\ttRY=ftit~JCo
j[[!f-*~.::t:*fiMUli.Z'pJf tlJi1Jlllliit, ~T~rm~Jt1JIlI'BJ¥1J~?i-, wr~
~ C~Wnl:5Cn~) B~r~fJtZ~~m~l'BftWIZ§~o JE:5C3S:*tElrn-t-t::1f.WnIt, lrn-+-:ft~I~I'Hil11t)J(, n-t~I'B~:f1'iWi.~ 1,957 ~~, 1L-+--t::1f.ii~ 7,126 ~ijt,
i\1f.r~'Jtnll 2.64 *, l5z:MtE*fi.:=:r,:*, ~Mr~'P'g~Jtnll 0.07 *0 m1nJE5t.:=:r,:*~fi~~I'PJ~~,tE2fi:11B,~*tE*fi.:=:r,:*~~~~JE5t~m~~o
*~~~~~,~~~~fi~.:=:r,:*,j[[1f.*m1nJE5t3S:*I'B11t)J(,H~mB9
~~-.&~O::t:*l'Bft.,x*~it~~~~If!1n.~B9~~otl1L-t-t::~:m~,
Jt~~~itlf!, .f"Ff,!i 41.52%, -Mf"Ff,!i 33.82%, =M~f,!i 24.65%0 ~~::t:*I'B§itM~~.~~ffi15Zo~~.:=:r,:*tEn~~~,A~~~~,JL~~~1f.
- ~ ~~.:=:r,:*JjJff~~, {lm~-m:, .:=:r,:**~f71tE1H:lIilM~o =~ ~IJRY~ m1n::t:*ff:l:~1?, {j{m~~@]7t 0 1L~ ~lJi\~ ~~~m*, .:E:*~!l*, -;;P:i'£1nWt.llioj[[1f.*~.~OI'B.:E:*~tl~~.:=:r,:*~±, m1n~O.:E:**~~~;fO~.~
*~~~~~~I'B~~, 1R~j[[!f-*~.::t:*~m~~~~~!l~~~~1?~m
~o
m1n~~:11B~~~,.~~~~*~m.~~~~-;;p-~o~~~~:5C~*
:AifS~fthfl'H~:ll~.~ 1'B11t)J(::t~~*, ~Z±~l'BilJli, ~1H:tElrn~ If! ;Jtfitfij]j.~/h 2fi~*p~tfiUli.lii 0.24 J¥o ~1f!~.:5C~*.~s~Zi\+=',
( 51 )
-136-
;kflm3i*~IIJII1E13~J8*f, am~J!
-137~
:ff 200 Xo iB1n~ftE~JE, :m:fll5tH~:E::*wi¥~:fI:~~ 1,800 0JT, mFNl!!tE*:E::*wlfl~:I:~Ij~ 2,900 0 JT0 tlll;\!~J.Pi;1J~*1fi:E::* 13~:I:, aRbI1l:lt!!:E::*_
*~~E*,k ~RJftEfHJH~Z-o
-;\\tifiIw, .tE4t:f!l.:K:*~Jt!m fF4!4l:f:l, . f1:i~1:tlif<ll:re~~:li*EfJ1i1J~~otJ.,rilJtJHlmfF1.Uli_, .~T;lmli
-138-
1. ::E1it~J: .~1:.ifi~IJff"', mRiil~sg-, ~~t, ~m:n-r\1Y~o
2.::Em~:~.~~.~~*,.M~~M.~., ~m:n-r:n~o
3. fnIJ'iljJ.J: ".~fi~m{lE~ZJl~1?i!Ua.I!l'J", .~~fj'fmf1jX.~~
-=~, ~ 15 ~o ~m.;ft~IJff"'., ~~t, ~m:n-r-l::~o
4. ~m~rRl*: ~mB9jt!rllfOJi1t:fjto
5.~X&: ~••~~~~Z~~, mR~.*"'."'~.~*,~mn
-ri\~o
6. ffX&" $1jJ.J~: "~.~~~IJffZ~~-~~U~M~Z1:.ifiJi1t*~
J&~Jt~7t:iff", .~~VtfillfijX.~~=~, ~ 35~o ~m.;ft~1Jff
"'it, ~~t, ~mn:-t~~o
7. l~Xm: "~*~I=I~ifi~rJj.w!z~iM", gEB~mZI~~-=-r~~gg
M, ~ 18J{o
8. Chaiyong Chuchart; Gordon R. Sitton; Arkhom Soothipham:
Production and Marketing Problems Affecting The Expans
ion of Com Growing in Thailand, Kasetsart Univ., Bangkok
1962.
9. Te Tsui Chang: Long-Term Projections of Supply, Demand
and Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan,
National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, (manuscript) 1969.
10. W. Candler: "An Aggregate Supply Function for New Zealand
Wheat", from Journal of Farm Economics, Dec., 1957, P.
1735.
11. F. A. 0.: The Stabilization of World Trade in Coarse Grains
- A Consideration of the Underlying Economics Issues,
Tokyo 1964.
12. F. A. 0.: Production Yearbook Vol. 21, Rome 1967.
13. J. Johnston: Econometric Methods, ::E1it~J:. lft.-l:I!.li'l.f:1.f~, ~
~t, ~mn:-r-l::~o
14. H. Theil, Economic Forecasts and Policy, North-Holland
1965.
15. Delbert, A. Snider: Introduction to International Economics,
fourth edition, 1967. I!JIixt~~: m~fi~)](~, !£~t, ~mn:-r
-l::~o
-156-
AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF CORN IN TAIWAN
Mau-Ying Tjiu, Ralph W. H. Chen*
SUMMARY
This study is intended to investigate the possibility of com"
production in Taiwan, and to estimate the quantity to be
imported in the near future.
Under the policy of import liberalization of com, com
produced in Taiwan tends to compete not only with com
imported but also with its alternative crops in the producing
area.
Results of this study indicated that corn is a very promis
ing crop in Taiwan.
1. After the import liberalization, the price of corn in Taiwan
was decided by the total supply and demand of the world. Since
world demand for com is greater than that of supply, the price'
of corn will continue to rise.
2. In 1968, the production of com in Taiwan showed that it
was more profitable and laber-saving than its alternative crops.
The character of labor-saving combined with the rising price of
com will make it profitable more and more, because the labor
saving crop will enjoy a comparative advantage in the economic
development of Taiwan, as labor will become more limited,
wage rates wiII continue to go up.
3. Although there is significant seasonal variations in the
production of corn both in Taiwan and Thailand, the seasonal
distribution of com production is supplementary in these two
countries. For example, most of the corn in Taiwan are
harvested during February through May, but it is just the time
of depleting stocks in Thailand. From September to December,
Thailand exported large quantities of com. This coincides with
the time Taiwan need to import com by large quantity'
Even in the unfavorable price level of corn, its production
* Associate professor and research assistant, Research Institute of
Agricultural Economics, Taiwan Provincial Chung Hsing University.
( 1 )
-157-
-will not be substituted completely, the reasons are as follows:
1. The production costs of large-sized corn farmers (above
1 hectare of com planted) are so low that they can stand out
the price of NT$ 2.00 per kg..
2. As most corns are produced for self-consumption, farmers
usually put more emphasis on the profit that may come from
corn used in raising livestock than on the price level of com
itself.
3. For the purpose of reducing risks, most of the farmers
will diversify their farming by keeping com in the rotation
system.
Recently, the increasing rate of corn demanded in 'I'aiwar;
was greater than the expanding rate of dumestic production.
This is due to the introduction of modern techniques used in
raising swine and chicken. In 1963 the government launched an
integrated improvment program in the production of swine and
chicken, the consumption structure of corn has changed greatly.
The import liberalization of corn in 1967 also led to the change
of consumption pattern of com.
The quantity of com to be imported is the discrepency
-b~tween the domestic supply of and the domestic demand for
corn in the future.
In the projection of corn production, multiple regression
technique was used. Owing' to the significant difference of the
motives in planting Chailai and Hybric com, the production of
-each was estimated respectively.
There are three main uses of corn in Taiwan, namely, for
"human food, for feed and for seed. Multiple regression techn
iques were used both in estimating corn demanded for food
and for feed, but only the results of feed estimators were
satisfactory for the study. Therefore, the average increasing
rate is used to estimate the quantity used for food. Com used
for seed was about 30 kg. per hectare. As the planted hectarage
is given, the total quantity of corn used for seed is available. In
addition to three uses of corn, there is a small amount of
waste, which is estimated on the basis of fixed proportion of
-corn produced and imported.
( 2 )
-158-
The results of projections are listed as follows
Year Total production Total consumption Imports(A) (B) (B-A) 1.004
1970 64,614 455,469 392,118
1975 81,487 613,571 534,212
1980 96,506 808,005 714,345
( 3 )
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