3 factors3 factors -Birth-Birth -Death-Death --MigrationMigration

population population change change circulationcirculation

Zero Zero population population growthgrowth

Birth rateBirth rate

Death rateDeath rate<1%1-1.9%2-2.9%3+%

Data notavailable

Annual worldpopulation growth

Two types of fertility rates affecting a Two types of fertility rates affecting a countries population size and growth ratecountries population size and growth rate

Replacement level fertility: the Replacement level fertility: the number of children a couple must have number of children a couple must have to replace themselves (2.1 developed, to replace themselves (2.1 developed, 2.5 in 2000 in developing)2.5 in 2000 in developing)

Total fertility rate: estimate of number Total fertility rate: estimate of number of children a woman will have between of children a woman will have between 15 – 49, average global TFR is 2.9 15 – 49, average global TFR is 2.9 (above regular level of 2.1)(above regular level of 2.1)

Births per woman< 2

2-2.9

3-3.9

4-4.9

5+

NoData

WomenWomen

• 76 million in 190076 million in 1900• 276 million in 2000276 million in 2000

Baby BoomBaby Boom

2000 Total Fertility rates of 2.1 children 2000 Total Fertility rates of 2.1 children per womenper women

•Hispanics Hispanics 2.92.9

•Asian/ Pacific IslanderAsian/ Pacific Islander 1.91.9•Native AmericanNative American 2.12.1•BlackBlack

2.22.2•WhiteWhite 1.81.8

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

0

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Birt

hs p

er th

ousa

nd p

opul

atio

n

Demographictransition Depression

Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom

World War II

Year

Birth RatesBirth Rates• children as laborchildren as labor•UrbanizationUrbanization•Cost of raising Cost of raising childrenchildren•Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate•Education of womenEducation of women•Availability of birth Availability of birth control methods and control methods and legal abortionslegal abortions

Death Rates•Food supplyFood supply

•Improvement in Improvement in sanitation and sanitation and hygienehygiene•Safer water suppliesSafer water supplies

•Better nutritionBetter nutrition

•Improvement in Improvement in public health public health technologytechnology

Infant deathsper 1,000 live births

<10<10-35<36-70<71-100<100+Data notavailable

• Age structureAge structure• 3 categories3 categories - pre-reproductive( 0 – 14 yrs)- pre-reproductive( 0 – 14 yrs) - reproductive ( 15 – 44 yrs)- reproductive ( 15 – 44 yrs) - post reproductive ( 45-and up yrs)- post reproductive ( 45-and up yrs)• growth affected by number of people in growth affected by number of people in prime reproductive years and the prime reproductive years and the children moving into those years.children moving into those years.• Force for continued population growth Force for continued population growth due to :due to : - ineffective program to decrease - ineffective program to decrease birthsbirths - increase death rates- increase death rates

•Baby boom : 70 million person increase in U.S. between Baby boom : 70 million person increase in U.S. between 1946 – 19641946 – 1964

•Baby – bust generation or generation –x: 44 million Baby – bust generation or generation –x: 44 million people born between 1965 and 1976people born between 1965 and 1976

•Echo – boom generation: 82 million people born from Echo – boom generation: 82 million people born from 1977 - 20001977 - 2000

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+

Rapid GrowthGuatemalaGuatemala

NigeriaNigeriaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Slow GrowthUnited States

AustraliaCanada

Male Female

Zero GrowthSpain

AustriaGreece

Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden

• global aging: people over 60 outnumber global aging: people over 60 outnumber children under 15 in developed countries while children under 15 in developed countries while the opposite is true in developing the opposite is true in developing countries( baby boom generation)countries( baby boom generation)• effects of sharp population declineeffects of sharp population decline

EconomicEconomic-Older people use -Older people use social security, social security, Medicare and tax dollar Medicare and tax dollar servicesservices-labor shortages -labor shortages unless increased unless increased immigration of workersimmigration of workers

SocialSocial- Sharp rise in - Sharp rise in proportion of older proportion of older peoplepeople

ImmigrationImmigration

EmigrationEmigration

Environmental refugeesEnvironmental refugees

Population changePopulation change

Migration in population Migration in population dynamicsdynamics

“ “ if current predictions of population if current predictions of population growth and patterns of human growth and patterns of human activity on the planet remain activity on the planet remain

unchanged, science and technology unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either may not be able to prevent either

irreversible degradation of the irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for environment or continued poverty for

much of the world”much of the world”- US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society - US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society

of Londonof London

ProsPros• stimulate stimulate economic economic growthgrowth

• raising family raising family is most is most enjoyable thing enjoyable thing many people domany people do

•Large families Large families provide security provide security for parents in for parents in old age in old age in countries that countries that lack social lack social securitysecurity

ConsCons•Violate Violate religious beliefs religious beliefs and attempt to and attempt to limit minority limit minority numbersnumbers

•Threat to Threat to earth life-earth life-support system support system & human & human populationpopulation

•Increase Increase environmental environmental harmharm

What is earths What is earths optimum optimum

sustainable sustainable population?population?

Impair earths ability to sustain life by causing Impair earths ability to sustain life by causing social disruption ( intensifies existing social disruption ( intensifies existing environmental and social problems).environmental and social problems).

overshoot earths sustainable yield using overshoot earths sustainable yield using resources like natural gas, coal, oil, freshwater, resources like natural gas, coal, oil, freshwater, organisms as food resources.organisms as food resources.

Overpopulation limits earths ability to replenish Overpopulation limits earths ability to replenish its natural resources and causes an increase in its natural resources and causes an increase in energy supply like oil, which can be a hazard to the energy supply like oil, which can be a hazard to the environment.environment.

Demographic transitionDemographic transition

4 distinct stages4 distinct stages - pre-industrial- pre-industrial - transitional- transitional - industrial- industrial - post-industrial- post-industrial

Low

High

Rel

ativ

e po

pula

tion

size

Birt

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eath

rate

(num

ber p

er 1

,000

per

yea

r) 80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Stage 1Preindustrial

Stage 2Transindustrial

Stage 3Industrial

Stage 4Postindustrial

Lowgrowth rate

Increasing Growthgrowth rate

Very highgrowth rate

Decreasinggrowth rate

Lowgrowth rate

Zerogrowth rate

Negativegrowth rate

Birth rate

Total population

Death rate

TimeTimeFig. 11.26, p. 255

Family planning- provides educational and Family planning- provides educational and clinical services that help couples choose clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when to have how many children to have and when to have them.them.• contraception use in developing countries contraception use in developing countries increase from 10% - 52% in 2000 (39% of increase from 10% - 52% in 2000 (39% of china excluded)china excluded)

advantages of family planningadvantages of family planning• less money is needed for children social less money is needed for children social servicesservices• the number of legal and illegal abortions per the number of legal and illegal abortions per year decline sharplyyear decline sharply• the risk of death from childbearing the risk of death from childbearing decreases.decreases.

Effective in:Effective in:-ChinaChina-IndonesiaIndonesia-BrazilBrazil-BangladeshBangladesh

Ineffective in:Ineffective in:- IndiaIndia-EgyptEgypt-PakistanPakistan-NigeriaNigeria-AfricaAfrica-Latin AmericaLatin America

Studies show Studies show women live longer women live longer and have fewer and have fewer children when:children when:

• have access to have access to education and to education and to paying jobs paying jobs outside the homeoutside the home• live in societies live in societies where they have where they have rightsrights

Women work Women work 2/3rds of all 2/3rds of all hours worked hours worked but:but:

• receive only receive only 10% of the worlds 10% of the worlds incomeincome•Own only 0.01% Own only 0.01% of the worlds of the worlds propertyproperty• are unpaid at are unpaid at the estimate of 11 the estimate of 11 trillion annually.trillion annually.• make up 70% of make up 70% of the worlds poorthe worlds poor

• about 20 countries suffer small payments to people who agree about 20 countries suffer small payments to people who agree to use contraceptives or to be sterilizedto use contraceptives or to be sterilized•Countries ,like China, penalize couples who have more than one Countries ,like China, penalize couples who have more than one or two children by or two children by

-raising their taxes-raising their taxes- charging fees- charging fees- eliminating income tax deductions- eliminating income tax deductions

• Rewards work best when Rewards work best when - encourage (rather than coerce) people to have - encourage (rather than coerce) people to have

fewer childrenfewer children- reinforce existing customs and trends toward - reinforce existing customs and trends toward

smaller familiessmaller families- do not penalize people who produce large - do not penalize people who produce large

families before the programs were establishedfamilies before the programs were established- increase a poor families economic status- increase a poor families economic status

Both countries have a strong preference for male Both countries have a strong preference for male children, which contributes to population growthchildren, which contributes to population growth

IndiaIndiaDisappointing results Disappointing results because:because:

•Poor planningPoor planning

•BureaucraticBureaucraticInefficiencyInefficiency

•Low status of womenLow status of women

•Extreme povertyExtreme poverty

•Lack of administrative Lack of administrative and financial supportand financial support

ChinaChinaSuccessful results because:Successful results because:

• Extensive and intrusive Extensive and intrusive population control programpopulation control program

• Economic incentives for one Economic incentives for one childchild - extra food- extra food - larger pension- larger pension - better housing- better housing - Free medical care- Free medical care - Salary bonuses- Salary bonuses - free school tuition- free school tuition - Preferential treatment in- Preferential treatment in employmentemployment

1944, Goal of United Nations meeting in Cairo was to 1944, Goal of United Nations meeting in Cairo was to encourage action to stabilize population growth at 7.8 encourage action to stabilize population growth at 7.8 billion by 2054, rather than the projected 9 billion billion by 2054, rather than the projected 9 billion

Goals include:Goals include:• Universal access to family planning programsUniversal access to family planning programs• Improve health careImprove health care• Increase access to education for womenIncrease access to education for women• Increase involvement of men in childbearing Increase involvement of men in childbearing

responsibilitiesresponsibilities• Take steps to eradicate povertyTake steps to eradicate poverty

• Immigration & Naturalization service estimates 5.2 million Immigration & Naturalization service estimates 5.2 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.illegal immigrants in the U.S.

• Between 1820 & 1999 the U.S. admitted almost twice as Between 1820 & 1999 the U.S. admitted almost twice as many immigrants & refugees as all other countries combined.many immigrants & refugees as all other countries combined.

• illegal immigrants account for 40% of all country's illegal immigrants account for 40% of all country's population growth.population growth.

• 75% of legal immigrants live in : California, Florida, Illinois, 75% of legal immigrants live in : California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Texas.New York, New Jersey, and Texas.

• If the U.S. would reduce current levels of immigration it If the U.S. would reduce current levels of immigration it would decrease the needed supply of workers as baby would decrease the needed supply of workers as baby boomers retire.boomers retire.

•Carrying capacity: defined as the maximum Carrying capacity: defined as the maximum number of people or animals an area can number of people or animals an area can support.support.•Cultural Carrying Capacity: reduced number Cultural Carrying Capacity: reduced number of carrying capacity in order to increase of carrying capacity in order to increase quality of life.quality of life.

Universal Question:Universal Question:Should we maximize the number of human Should we maximize the number of human beings living at lowest level of comfort or beings living at lowest level of comfort or

minimize the number to a comforting cultural minimize the number to a comforting cultural carrying capacity?carrying capacity?

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