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PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LESSONS FROM

STOCK MARKET CRASH: A STUDY *Dr. Partap Singh

(Associate Professor Approved by Expert penal of Kurukshetra University)

Faculty Member, Mittal School of Business

Lovely Professional University (LPU)

Phagwara, Punjab

Abstract: Sensex has declined to 7650 with a fall of 37.46 from its peak 12220 as on January 16, 2020 and BSE

has declined to 26,321.88 with a fall of 37.23 by March 23, 2020 from its peak 41932.56 as on January 16, 2020

on account of Corona virus, big fall in crude oil prices, failure of Yes bank or crisis, depreciation of Indian rupee,

selling by FPIs/FIIs, Corona virus declared Pandemic by WHO, FY 2020-21 Union budget, global breakdown

during coronavirus pandemic in China and fear of Global economic slowdown. However, Sensex has regained to

9266.75 with a rise of 17.45 from its bottom 7610 by April 17, 2020 and BSE has regained to 31588.72 with a rise

of 17.75 by April 17, 2020 from its bottom 25981.24 as on 23/03/2020 during less than a period of 1 month. The

present paper analysed the various stock market crash, their causes. Economic measures, counter moves played to

manage market, recovery period and use of margin money.

Key Words: Stock Market Crash, Depreciation of rupee, Global Economic Slowdown, DJIA and Nifty and

Sensex.

INTRODUCTION

From January 16, 2020 to March 23, 2020, Indian stock market has registered continues decline by around 38

percent due to mainly COVID-19, high fall in crude oil prices, outflow of funds by FPIs/FIIs, high increase in

dollar prices. Fear of economic slowdown in the economy, increasing data on unemployment, deceasing GDP and

decrement in GDP by international economy, low demand, decreasing income in rural economy, and fear of failure

of Indian banking system contribute to boost in the security market crash. In 2008-09, the market was declined by

around 65 percent while in present stock market crash 2020, the stock market has declined to 38 percent. From its

bottom as on March 23, 2020, stock market in India has revised has recovered more than 17 percent by April 17,

2020

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had registered a new record with a fall of 2,997 points (12.93 percent) to

close at 20,188.52 as on March 16, 2020 and surpassed Black Monday, 1929 fall of 12.7%.

OBJECTIVES OF PAPER

To understand the real picture of trends and pattern as well as tactics used to control the stock market

crash in past;

To workout the reasons and recovery period during the crash;

To study the role of margin money and counter moves played by market makers during market crash;

and

To develop the strategy to exploit the investing opportunities in the stock market.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

In the paper, secondary data has been used and it analyses the Crash of 1907-08, Wall Street Crash of 1929 or

Great Crash, October 19, 1987 Clash, Crash 2008-09, and Stock Market Crash 2020.

To analyse the trend and pattern percentile, table and graph have been used so that objectives of the paper can be

achieved.

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REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Samuelson, Robert J. (2020) found that that low interest rates have not proved powerful tools of unmanageable

financial speculation. Due to slowdown in the economy, there would be less chance of increment in salary, wages

and prices.

Josh Barro and Benjamin Hart (2020) have suggested that there is need to prevent a new rampant by

reducing boundaries on human activity like testing, and surveillance and fast and new measures would be effective

enough to prevent uncontrolled incidences. Many sectors of economy would be affected negatively and there is

risk of worse than expected additional economic effects for lengthier that would be very difficult to recover.

Clem Chambers (2020) suggested the intelligent investing strategy for the people who have FOMO (Fear of

Missing Out) to re-enter in the market. He focused re-enter gradually with Cash rich, Cheap Valuation and right

business (Irrespective large, mid or small cap). He suggested for investing 50 percent in view of rescue package.

Clem Chambers (2020) suggested on buying with patience as opportunity of buying has not been lost by anyone

and present recovery is dead cat bounce. Anyone can keep 80 percent cash to buy the final leg of “W”. He also

focused on buying of large cap blue chip companies.

Dr.G. Shanmugasundram and D. John Benedict (2013) observed that different sectorial indices have same

variances. Further, he found a difference in the mean scores of a number of time intermissions. He focused to invest

in indices during high volatility time.

Sean Williams (2020) recognised that the decline of 7.79 percent in DJIA as on March 9, 2020 as Crash 2020”.

He also found the key reason of rising fears over coronavirus disease. He mentioned the chance of U.S. economy

into recession and the stock market into bear zone.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis of Crash of 1907-08 or 1907 Bankers' Panic

Name Crash of 1907-08 or 1907 Bankers' Panic or Knickerbocker Crisis

Crash Period 1907-08

Fall (%) 50 Percent

Key reasons Knickerbocker Trust Company manipulated copper stocks,

Financial & Liquidity crisis

Description Liquidity crisis arisen due to lack of confidence and trust in US

banking system. Clients of banks has withdrew their money from

banks due to failure of banking system as may government and

private banks were failed.

Due to slowdown in the US economy, a number of business (like

Knickerbocker Trust in New York City and the Westinghouse

Electric Company) had failed and Wall street brokerages expired

insolvent due to continue purchase in stock market fell.

J. P. Morgan and government played a role of hero to bring

confidence of depositors in banking system that seemed impossible

at that time.

The result of this crisis was the idea of establishment of Federal

Reserve in 1913.

National Bureau Economic Research studied the economic

slowdown from May 1907 to June 1908 and found 11 percent

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reduction in production, 26 percent fall in imports, migration

dropped to 750001 people in 1909, from 1.2 million 2 past years.

Economic

Conditions .Money supply decreased due to purchase of agricultural harvest and

to manage liquidity, the rates of interest were increased time to time

and foreign investors want to take benefit of these opportunities and

referred their money to New York for this purpose.

DJIA was as high of 103 came down to 5 and it was a starting of a

modest correction that was continue in 1906 and April 1906

earthquake, hike in interest rate by Bank of England; Fine on

Standard Oil Company, and Copper market clash were key events

for further correction.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

Stock market fell 18 percent by July 1906 from January 1906 and

market had recovered around 50 percent of their losses by

September, 2006. Stock market had lost 7.7 percent of its market

cap from September 1906 to March 1907. 9.8 percent from March

9 to March 26, 1906. A declined of 24.4 percent was noticed during

9 months of first 9 months.

ANALYSIS OF WALL STOCK CRASH OF 1929

Graph 2; Exhibiting Wall Stock Crash of 1929

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Source: en.wikipedia.org

Name Wall Street Crash of 1929 or Great Crash

Crash Period 1929-1932

Fall (%) 89

Key reasons Speculative Boom and Margin Buying

Description The Crash 1929 was a major crash that happened between

September 1929 to October 1929 with NYSE(New York

Stock Exchange ) collapse in US history;

Dow Jones Industrial Average hiked to 381.2 (more than six

fold) in September 21, 1929 from August 24, 1921 due

extraordinary growth in key sectors like building

construction, steel production, retail turnover, automobiles

and railway after first world war.

There was a rise of 36.6 percent in the first six months of

1929 over 1928 while Iron and steel went doubled gains

during same period. Investors started to invest heavily in the

stock market due to greed even with borrowed funds.

Brokers had increased more loaning facility to small

investors greater than around 67 percent of the face value of

the stocks purchased by investors.

This continue boom in the prices of shares encouraged more

investors to invest using margin buying due to expectation of

same repeat in future. This gave the birth to a bubble in

economy.

The use of margin buying, investors lost the large portion of

their money and become failed vey speedily.

After, Federal Bank of speculative boom in 25-03- 1929, a

small crash was noticed as investors sold stocks speedily and

the reality of the unstable stock market become true.

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But, after two days an announcement came that the National

City Bank was going to give $ 25 million in credit to

discontinue the decline in market and it discontinued it on

temporary basis.

Till this, American economy had given indicator of showed

warning of problem due to fall in steel production, in

construction, in automobile sales, and consumers.

The overproduction of wheat crop became the cause of big

fall in the prices of wheat crops in August 2029 in USA.

France, Italy and Australia that further increased this stock

market decline which had reduced the income of farmers.

Thus, stock market was affected by the commodity market.

All this given scenario, increased the anxiety of investors that

lead to historical fall on October 24 (recognised as

Thursday), 28(recognised as Monday), and 29 (recognised as

Black Tuesday).

Black Thursday (October 24, 2029): The 11 percent fall in DJIA

due to overselling very speedily and to overcome the problem of

Richard Whitney who were vice president of the Exchange, along

with Wall Street bankers (Morgan Bank, Chase National Bank;

and National City Bank of New York. ) made an announcement for

purchase of a large quantity of shares in U.S. Steel at a price enough

above the current market at that time.

This was a tactic identical to panic of 2007 that was successful to

discontinue the panic of 1907 and this time also it worked and the

market recovered and it closed with down only 6.38 points for the

day.

Black Monday(October 28,2029): 12 percent Fall in DJIA

Many investors were asked for margin calls that became the cause

of big losses to investors. It leads to panic selling that was highest

point and there was no buyers of some stocks at any price.

Black Tuesday(October 24,2029): 12 percent Fall in DJIA

William C. Durant and other financial big gave a proposal of buying

huge numbers of stocks to bring confidence in the market, but in vain

and there was a 12 percent fall in DJIA.

On October 30, 2029, the Dow recovered 12.35 percent, then

made a temporary bottom on November 13, 1929, with the

DJIA at 198.6(closing).

After this stock market showed recovery for some months,

and reached at 217.28 on November 14, 2029. In this series,

a second highest peak was of 294.07 as on April 17, 1930.

But, it was a temporary recovery that led to further huge

losses for investors.

From April, 18, 1930 to July, 8, 1932, DJIA was declined to

41.22(closed) at its lowest level of 89.2% as a loss for the

index in less than 3 years. It was the Great Cash of history.

Beginning on March 14, 1933, the DJIA initiated to

gradually recover its worst ground.

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Affects This great clash lead to bankruptcies and failure of banks and

macroeconomic problems like unemployment, reduction of credit,

business closings, and money supply problems. The stock market

clash also contributed to enhance Great Recession 1929 in

Economy.

October 19, 1987 Clash

ANALYSIS OF WALL STOCK CRASH OF 1987

Name October 19, 1987 Clash, Black Monday 1987

Crash

Period

October 14, 1987- October 17, 1987

Fall (%) More than 31 percent

Key

reasons Overvalued stock market, news of worsening economic indicators (like

increasing trade deficit and decline in U.S. dollar), fear of a repeat of the

1929s Depression, and Portfolio insurance hedges.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

Amongst the start of trading on October 14, 1987 to the close on October 19,

1987 of the DJIA lost 760 points, a decline of over 31 percent.

Date Fall (%)

October 14, 1987 3.82

October 16, 1987 4.60

October 19, 1987

(Black Monday)

22.6

Margin calls and liquidity: The fear of liquidity crisis and failure of securities

firms increased the number of margin calls regarding 10 times of their average

size and 3 times greater than the highest previous morning calls after a decline

in market. Further it become the cause of mounting selling. Numerous

brokerage firms had inadequate cash in customers' accounts and these firm

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withdrawn funds from their own capital to encounter the shortage of fund. Bank

were also not confident about their exposure and solvency in high volatile stock

market.

Recovery

Period

The market recovered in two years and the loss of this stock market

crash 1987 fully. Immediately after big fall on October, 1987, the

market rallied and registered a record one-day gain of 102.26 and then

next day on Thursday October 22, it has registered a big rise as 186.64

points on Thursday October 22.

Economic

conditions

At the

time of

crash

During 1980, economies were at their peaks and Everyone has full

confidence and positive attitude for the further growth;

DJIA has increased to 2722 in August 1987 from 776 in August 1987;

The 19 largest market of the world has increased to 296 percent on

average from August 1982 to its topmost in August 1987.

Analysis of 2008–2009 Crash at Global Level

Name 2008-09 Crash, Financial crisis of 2007–2008 and Global Financial

Crisis (GFC

Crash

Period

6.03, 2009- 9-10 2007; above a span of 17 months.

Fall (%) 54 percent

Key

reasons

subprime mortgage market, Creation of Assets bubble in Real estate

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has declined to 6,469 (54

percent) by 6 March 2009 from 14164 (from its peak) as on October 9,

2007 before beginning to recover. Further it closed lower from

October 6, 2008 to October 10, 2008 in all five sessions and the DJIA

registered 18 percent, in its worst weekly decline continually.

The OMX Iceland 15 index closed at 678.4 around 77% in 14-10-

2008 was lower than the 3,004.6 as on 8-10-2008.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

Findings

Market crash 2007-09 arose in 2007 due to more loan facility by banks and reduction in prices of house on account

of real estate bubble in the United States and it was most serious since the Great Depression of the 1929. It became

very serious and global financial crisis (and international banking crisis) along with the collapse of the investment

bank Lehman Brothers and bought of Merrill Lynch bank by Bank of America as on 15-10-2008.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs converted themselves into bank holding companies as on 21.09- 2008

so that these can get shelter by the central bank of US.

Washington Mutual converted in insolvent on 26 September 26, 2008.

On account of mainly introduction to bundled subprime loans and use of credit swaps rapidly transferred

into a financial and banking crisis Further, many banks and financial institutions had failed in European

countries and there were major declines in Equity market and commodity market in US and globally. In

2008, 15 banks failed in USA and many other were saved with the help of government.

International Monetary Fund warned about the global financial crisis as on 11 October, 2008 and the

majority of stock exchanges of the world showed approximately 10 percent fall.

The foreign investors believed on currency of UK and Canada as safe havens than Currency of USA

and Japan during the crisis period.

Considerable bail-outs of banks, and financial institutions played a positive role in preventing a possible

fall of the Global financial system.

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Analysis of Stock Market Crash 2008-09 in India

The BSE Sensex was down from nearly 21,000 to 8,100 around 65 percent due to US housing bubble burst and

Global financial crisis

21 January 2008: The BSE Sensex fall by 1408 points to 17,605, Black Monday, circuit filter permits

fluctuates up to 15% before discontinuing trading for an hour

22 January 2008: BSE Sensex Fall by 875 points;

11 Feb 200: BSE Sensex Fall by a further 834 ;

3 March 2008: BSE Sensex Falls by 901 points ;

17 March 2008: BSE Sensex fall by 952 points.

24 October 2008: BSE Sensex fall by 1070 points to 8701 in a single day.

26 November 2008: BSE Sensex fall to 8100 in a single day.

The BSE Sensex was 8100 after fall in March 2009 and Sensex reached to 29,000 at the end of 2014 more than

250 percent I during these5 years.

Analysis of Stock Market Crash 2020

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On Feb. 12, 2020, the Dow was its record high of 29,551.42 prior to 2020 crash and by March 9, 2020 (Monday)

low, the DJIA declined by 5,700.40 points with 19.3%. On Monday, 9-03-2020, the DJIA cut down to 2,013.8

points with 7.79 percent fall to 23,851.02 due to the coronavirus and an oil price war between OPEC countries and

Russia. It was considered as beginning of stock market crash 2020 However market has declined by 970 points on

March 5, 2020. It was considered as Black Monday 2020 and it was seen as worst single-day points drop in U.S.

market history in DJIA.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

The DJIA closed at 23,553.22, down 20.3% from the February 12, 2020 high as on March 11, 2020 that introduced

a bear market and ended the 11-year bull market that began in March 2009. The DJIA declined to a record 2,352.60

points to close at 21,200.6 with 9.99% drop as sixth-worst percent drop in history on March 12, 2020.

The DJIA registered a new top with a fall of 2,997 points (12.93 percent) to close at 20,188.6 as on March 16,

2020 and it surpassed the Black Monday, 1929 fall of 12.8% for one session.

The greatest decline till March 16, 2020 was as on October 19, 1987 with a fall of 22.62 percent. On 18 March,

2020 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by more than 6%.

Table Exhibiting ranking of the 10 biggest one-day losses in DJIA history.

Date Points Percentage Fall Ranking

16/03/2020 -2997 12.93 1st

12/03/2020 -2353 9.99 2nd

11/03/2020 -1465 4th

09/03/2020 -2014 7.79 3rd

05/03/2020 -970 9th

27/02/2020 -1191 4.42 5th

25/02/2020 -879 10th

24/02/2020 -1032 8th

5/02/2018 -1033 7th

8/02/2018 -1175 6th

Source: Standard and Poor’s

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Stock Market Crash of 2020 in India

Source: en.wikipedia.org

Indian stock market Sensex has declined to 7650 with a fall of 37.46 from its peak 12220 as on January 16, 2020

and BSE has declined to 26,321.88 with a fall of 37.23by March 23, 2020 from its peak 41932.56 as on January

16, 2020 on account of Corona virus, big fall in crude oil prices, depreciation of Indian rupee, selling by FPIs/FIIs,

Corona virus declared Pandemic by WHO, FY 2020-21 Union budget, global breakdown during coronavirus

pandemic in China and fear of Global economic slowdown. However, Indian stock market Sensex has regained

to 9266.75 with a rise of 17.45 from its bottom 7610 by April 17, 2020 and BSE has regained to 31588.72 with a

rise of 17.75 by April 17, 2020 from its bottom 25981.24 as on 23/03/2020 during less than a period of 1 month.

Date Fall in (NSE)

in points & %

Fall in BSE in

points & %

Reasons

01/02/2020 373.95(3, 11%) 987.96(2%) FY 2020-21 Union budget, global

breakdown during coronavirus

pandemic in China

28/02/2020 432 1498 growing global tension caused by

Corona virus

09/03/2020 538 (4.90%) &

closed at

10,451.45.

1971.67 & closed

at 35,634.95

growing global tension caused by

Corona virus

12/03/2020 868.25(8.30) 2919.26(8.18) Corona virus declared Pandemic by

WHO

16/03/2020 757.80 (7.61%) 2713.41(8%) Global economic recession

23/03/2020 1135(12.98%)

(Nifty: 7610)

3,934.72 points

(13.15%) &

(Sensex:

25981.24)

increase number of coronavirus cases

23/03/2020

-17/04/2020

9266.75(+17.4

5)

31588.72(17.75) Bounce back&

FINDINGS

The greatest fall ( 89 percent) in US stock market was during stock market crash 1929 followed by more

than 54 percent in Crash 2008-09, 50 percent in crash 1907 and 31 percent in crash 1987. Approximately

32 percent decline in US stock market has been observed during stock market crash 2020.

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In Indian stock market crash, there was 65 percent decline during crash 2008-09 while there is 38 percent

decline in stock market crash 2020(till 23/03/2020). The key reason are fear of corona-virus, crude oil

prices, depreciation of Indian rupee, selling by FPIs/FIIs, Corona virus declared Pandemic by WHO, FY

2020-21 Union budget, global breakdown during coronavirus pandemic in China and fear of Global

economic slowdown.

The full recovery period from bottom to peak has been observed as 2-2.5 years except 1929 crash.

Indian stock market Sensex has regained to 9266.75 with a rise of 17.45 from its bottom 7610 by April 17,

2020 and BSE has regained to 31588.72 with a rise of 17.75 by April 17, 2020 from its bottom 25981.24

as on 23/03/2020 during less than a period of 1 month.

Fear of liquidity crisis and failure of securities firms, increased the number of margin calls approximately

10 times of their average size and 3 times greater than the highest previous morning call. It became the

cause of mounting selling. Numerous brokerage firms had inadequate cash in customers' accounts and

these firm withdrawn funds from their own capital to encounter the shortage of fund. Bank were also not

confident about their exposure and solvency in high volatile stock market.

Brokers increased more loaning facilities to small investors greater than 67 percent of the stocks purchased

by investors This continue boom in share prices encouraged more investors to invest using margin buying

due to expectation of same repeat in future. This give the birth to bubble in economy.

Due to use of margin for buying in market by investors had to lose big share of their money and they

become failed vey speedily.

CONCLUSIONS& SUGGESTIONS

From the above analysis of stock market crash 1929, Crash 2008-09, crash 1907 and crash 1987, it is

concluded that recovery of the stock market crash is certain on average period and after the recovery of

fall during the crash always stock market create a new peak point in future and good growth . Every crash

bring some reforms in financial system and portfolio management lessons for investors. The investors

without FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) can re-enter in the market gradually with Cash rich, Cheap Valuation

and right business (Irrespective large, mid or small cap) as nobody can’t predict the market. The investors

should avoid use of margin in case of volatile time.

References

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the original on 16 April, 2020. Retrieved 19 April, 2020.

Clem Chambers (2020). Is it time to re-enter the market? Forbes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/people/clem/archive/#2673e0bec1fe. Archived from the original on 17

April, 2020. Retrieved 19 April, 2020.

Clem Chambers (2020). Stock Market Crash: Party like It’s 1929. Forbes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/people/clem/archive/#2673e0bec1fe. Archived from the original on 17

April, 2020. Retrieved 17 April, 2020.

Dr.G.Shanmugasundram And D.John Benedict (2013) observed no difference about the Standard deviation among

different sectorial indices while he found a significant difference in the mean scores of various time intervals. He focused

to invest in indices during high volatility time.

Samuelson, Robert J. (12 March 2020). "What Crash of 2020 Means". The Washington Post. Archived from the

original on 11 March 2020. Retrieved 12 March 2020.

Williams, Sean (10 March 2020). "Stock Market Crash 2020: Everything You Need to Know". The Motley

Fool. Archived from the original on 12 March 2020. Retrieved 12 March 2020.

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Imbert, Fred (19 February 2020). "S&P 500 and Nasdaq jump to record highs, Dow climbs more than 100

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http://iaetsdjaras.org/gallery/58-january-540.pdff

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2394-8442. Page No: 164-177, VOLUME 5 - ISSUE 3 – APRIL 2018 , http://iaetsdjaras.org/gallery/34-april-677.pdf

Partap Singh & Grewal Joginder(2010). Impact of Financial crisis on Indian Economy “Southern Economist. Sri Ranga

Printers Pvt. Ltd.Vol. 51, no. 2. May. 15, 2010; (ISSN: 0038-4046) p no. 49-51

Partap Singh(2013) Depreciation of Rupee in Indian Economy: An Analysis, “International Journal of Innovations in

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