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© 2014 E3 Alliance
Susan Dawson, PresidentLaura Koenig, School Readiness DirectorShawn Thomas, Director of Research & Policy
Erin Russell, Central Texas Team
Show Me the Data! From Research to Practice to People
Presented by
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Erin RussellCentral Texas ProgramsMichael & Susan Dell Foundation
2
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Our Director of Communications Would Tell Us To:
Find more information:www.e3alliance.org
Share thoughts with others:Twitter: @E3Alliance
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/E3Alliance.org
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Why Are We Here?
• At the Michael & Susan Dell Foundation, we use metrics-based methodologies and analysis to identify where our resources can produce both immediate results and long-term systemic changes in education.
• We have developed a very effective partnership with E3 Alliance to do this in Central Texas.
• We want others to be a part of it—not just here but around the state and country!
4
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Webinar Goals
1. Share our excitement about supporting education systems change
2. Demonstrate real-world applications of action research to drive systems change in education
3. Identify partners who can:
Scale Incubate Leverage Services
5
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Webinar Format:
1) Intro to E3 Alliance Theory of Change
2) How E3 Turns Information into Systemic Change
a) Kindergarten Readiness
b) 3D Growth Model
c) College Access and Success
3) Wynn Rosser, Greater Texas Foundation
4) Wrap Up
6
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Susan DawsonPresidentE3 Alliance
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© 2014 E3 Alliance
“Central Texas High” Senior Class
157Students
157Students
© 2014 E3 Alliance8
© 2014 E3 Alliance
“Central Texas High” Freshman Class
314Students
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© 2014 E3 Alliance
“Central Texas High” Senior Class
157Students
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120?Students
© 2014 E3 Alliance10
© 2014 E3 Alliance
E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education
systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity
Mission
E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas
11
© 2014 E3 Alliance
What We Don’t Do
• Run school programs• Provide direct services • Write curriculum• Make decisions that
school boards or leaders make for their districts
Instead, we are acatalyst for positive change
in education
12
© 2014 E3 Alliance
E3 Alliance Model for Change
Using Information to Change Practice
Building Community Will for ChangeBridging disconnects;Overcoming barriers;
Aligning resources and practices
13
© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action
Identify Data Insights
Change Practices& Build Capacity
Forge Collaborations
Build Common Agenda
Convene Stakeholders
Building Community
Creating Commitmentto Change
Sustaining a Culture of High Performance
Objective Data-Driven Decision Making
Change Systems
© 2014 E3 Alliance
E3 Alliance Mission, Theory of Change, Approach to Systemic Alignment
15
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Shawn ThomasResearch & Policy DirectorE3 Alliance
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© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action
Identify Data Insights
Change Practices& Build Capacity
Forge Collaborations
Build Common Agenda
Convene Stakeholders
Building Community
Creating Commitmentto Change
Sustaining a Culture of High Performance
Objective Data-Driven Decision Making
Change Systems
Using objective data and research to
drive systems change – how does it work?
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?• Making readily available aggregate data
more accessible & understandable
18
© 2014 E3 Alliance19
© E3 Alliance, 2014Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS data
Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago…
© 2014 E3 Alliance
…And District Income Distribution Last Year
20Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency TAPR data © E3 Alliance, 2014
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable
• Comparing and trending data over time
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?
21
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Low Income Graduation Rates Improving Faster Than Other Regions
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201250%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%High School Graduation Rates for Low Income Students
Classes of 2003 Through 2012
TexasEl PasoRio Grande Val-leyDallasSan AntonioHoustonCentral Texas
Pe
rce
nt
of
Lo
w I
nc
om
e S
tud
en
ts
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center22
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable
• Comparing and trending data over time• Explaining complex or obscure data
– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?
23
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs
A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of dropouts is:
A: Trump Tower building cost
B: The annual cost of deer crashes in Pennsylvania
C: The total investment in the Long Center for Performing ArtsD: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department
24
© 2014 E3 Alliance
A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is:
Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost over $400M each year.
Answer B. is correct
$450 million
We could buy FIVE Long Centers for each class year of dropouts!
or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments.
The Trump Tower cost a paltry $300M.
25
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable
• Comparing and trending data over time• Explaining complex or obscure data
o White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better
decision making
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?
26
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Half of Low Income Students Who Miss 20 or More Days While in Grade 9 Graduated
on Time
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center
27
0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 20 20 or more0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
95%90%
81%
52%
High School Graduation Rates, By Days Absent While in Grade 9, Central Texas, Class of 2012
Days Absent in 9th Grade
Gra
du
atio
n R
ate
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable
• Comparing and trending data over time• Explaining complex or obscure data
– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better
decision making• Longitudinal research using individual
student records• Education Research Centers (ERCs)
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?
28
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable
• Comparing and trending data over time• Explaining complex or obscure data
– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better
decision making• Longitudinal research using individual
student records• Education Research Centers (ERCs)
• Original research (when necessary) – Most comprehensive study on student
readiness for kindergarten in the state
Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –
What Does that Mean?
29
© 2014 E3 Alliance
How we approach using data to drive systems change
Making data accessible for decision-making
30
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Laura KoenigSchool Readiness DirectorE3 Alliance
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© 2014 E3 Alliance
Ok, but how does it work in real life?
32
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Increasing School Readiness
Example 1:
33
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Understanding School Readiness
• Defining Readiness• Measuring School Readiness• Factors Associated with Readiness
Poverty Prior Experience
• Increasing School Readiness
34
© 2014 E3 Alliance
What is Readiness?
Higher test scores Improved social skills Better classroom behavior Less grade repetition Fewer special ed placements Greater graduation rates Increased productivity Reduced crime
35
• What does Readiness look like at age 5? • How do you measure it?
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Building a Common Definition of Readiness
36
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Ready, Set, K!
Students Teachers Families
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Measuring Readiness
38
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Just Over Half of Central Texas Students Are Ready to Succeed in School
Ready53%
Not Ready47%
Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2013
Source: E3 Analysis of Ready, Set, K! weighted data 39
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Saw Dramatic Increase in Child Poverty
Source: Kids Count Data Center, Central Texas: Bastrop, Blanco, Caldwell, Gillespie, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
34%
Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17
United States Series2 Series3
% G
row
th i
n P
ov
ert
y
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Saw Dramatic Increase in Child Poverty
Source: Kids Count Data Center, Central Texas: Bastrop, Blanco, Caldwell, Gillespie, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties
41
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
34%
42%
Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17
United States Texas Series3
% G
row
th i
n P
ov
ert
y
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Saw Dramatic Increase in Child Poverty
Source: Kids Count Data Center, Central Texas: Bastrop, Blanco, Caldwell, Gillespie, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties
42
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
34%
42%
121%Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17
United States Texas Central Texas
% G
row
th in
Po
vert
y
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Any Pre-K Better Than No Pre-KFor Both Low and Non-Low Income
Students
Low Income Non-low Income0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%
55%
47%
67%
51%
68%
Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas, 2010 to 2013
Home or with Relative District Pre-K Child Care Center Pre-K
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Kin
de
rga
rtn
ers
E3 Analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data43
© 2014 E3 Alliance
3 out of 4 Low Income Children Attend District Pre-K
23%
29%
48% 1%
At Home/Relative District Pre-K Child Care Center Head Start44
13%
74%
9% 3%
E3 Analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data 2010-2013, Central Texas
Low Income Non-Low Income
© 2014 E3 Alliance
What are We Doing About it?
Align Systems Build Capacity Increase Quality
45
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Align Systems
• National League of Cities effort to align early childhood efforts Austin one of 6 cities in the nation
• School Readiness Action Plan Government, non-profit, and community agents working
toward common goals, measured by Ready, Set, K!
• E3 Alliance and Education Service Center Region 13 aligning Pre-K instruction through Ready, Set, K!
• Horizontal Alignment with Child Care programs using Ready, Set, K!
46
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Build Capacity
• Enroll all Eligible 4 Year Olds in High Quality Pre-K About 1,800 students, or 12% of those eligible throughout
the region, are not enrolled in Pre-K Lifetime ROI of enrolling those students in high quality Pre-
K: $30M per cohort
• Leverage available state dollars to build capacity to serve eligible 3 year olds Open classrooms where facility space available Partner with private centers to serve full day Impact investing in new models to build infrastructure Longitudinal research to optimize investments and
outcomes
47
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Increase Quality
• Using Ready, Set, K! Kindergarten Readiness Study Pre-K Programs and Child Care Centers Parent Guides and tools
• Changing School District Practices More Qualified Teachers More investment in Pre-K
48
© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action• Aligning Pre-K
instruction to meet
school expectation • Increasing the use
and capacity of our
current systems• Changing district
practices based on data• Using objective data and clear ROI, districts and
community are collaborating to increase enrollment regionally—and saving millions by doing so!
49
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Population data to identify leverage points for change
New standard, original research—only when necessary
Aligning community systems and capacity based on objective data
50
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Improving Student & School Performance by Measuring Academic Growth
Example 2:
3D GROWTH
51
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Learning= Growth3D
GROWTH
Why Study Growth?
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Why Study Growth?
• Current measures pose a number of problems
• Growth analyses provide: a more direct measure of learning a more equitable basis for comparing schools that serve
different student populations
• Growth analyses allow us to: Locate schools with practices that are promising
because students are learning, not just meeting the minimum standard
View performance multi-dimensionally
53
© 2014 E3 Alliance
SGP Has Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages Disadvantages
Method used in at least 15 states and accepted by teacher unions
Not used in TEA TPM or “simple growth” method, but goal is to have wide district use by 2013-14
Opens up new dimension of discussion on what is an “excellent school”
Requires extensive analysis on data from all students in Texas, which E3 Alliance has!
Not affected by only helping “bubble” students
Time lag: data becomes available a year after test administration
Easily handles TAKS to STAAR changeNot used for teacher compliance: meant to improve performance at school and student subpopulation level
Very high year-to-year stability Only utilizes academic performance in core subjects
Methodology is open, nonproprietary, & relatively easy to understand
Schools get credit for students at ceiling
54
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Strong Negative Relationship Between % Low Income and % Met TAKS Standard
55
R2 = .57
Percent Low Income
Per
cen
t M
et T
AK
S S
tan
dar
d
NOTE: Includes 2011 TAKS Reading/ELA Passing Rates for all Central Texas schools, excluding alternative and residential treatment campuses
© E3 Alliance, 2014
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Reduced Correlation Between 3D Growth Scores
and % Low Income
56
R2 = .24
Percent Low Income
3D G
row
th S
core
NOTE: Includes 2011 SGP Growth Scores for all Central Texas schools, excluding alternative and residential treatment campuses
© E3 Alliance, 2014
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Example 3D Growth Bubble Chart
State Average
Low Growth AverageGrowth
High Growth
57© E3 Alliance, 2014
School A School B
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Insert Tech Brief Chart here
58
Identifying Opportunities to Learn and Improve
58© E3 Alliance, 2014
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Campus NameStudent Growth
% Met Reading
Growth Grade 4
Growth Grade 5
School 118 50 98% 38 58
School 116 57 98% 43 59
School 123 42 97% 35 48
School 117 54 97% 46 61
School 120 52 96% 45 55
School 125 38 95% 33 55
School 126 41 94% 38 42
School 119 45 91% 35 56
School 121 38 90% 31 47
School 124 42 82% 40 43
School 122 51 79% 55 47
Example of a District Policy Issue
District Policy Issue
59
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Growth in Math – Middle Schools
Normal Growth
High GrowthLow Growth
60© E3 Alliance, 2014
© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action
• Existing district/state measures often inadequate to improve practice and policy
• Tools exist that can help drive performance improvements at a campus and district level
• Not a silver bullet, but a powerful tool in the toolbox
61
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Adapting powerful tools to measure student outcomes
Supporting district actions to change policy and practice to improvement performance
62
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Improving College Enrollment and Success
Example 3:
63
© 2014 E3 Alliance
No Improvement in Proportion of High School Graduates Enrolling in Higher Ed
Institutions
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Percent Enrolled in Higher Ed
Within One Year of Graduating HS
Central Texas TexasHigh School Graduation Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
Hig
h S
ch
oo
l G
rad
ua
tes
64Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Enrollment Rates for Low Income HS Grads Increased
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
39% 40% 41%44% 46% 47% 48% 46%
65% 67% 69% 68% 68% 67% 68% 67%
Percent of Central Texas HS Graduates Enrolled in Texas Higher Ed Institution Within One Year, by Income Status
Low Income Not Low IncomeHigh School Graduating Class
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ce
ntr
al
Te
xa
s G
rad
ua
tes
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC
65
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Higher Ed Enrollment for Low Income Students Increased But Still Lags Behind
Texas
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
65% 67%
66% 66%
39%46%
46% 51%
Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled in Higher Ed In Texas Within One Year by Income Status
CTX - Not Low Income Texas - Not Low Income
CTX - Low Income Texas - Low Income
Pe
rce
nt
of
Hig
h S
ch
oo
l G
rad
ua
tes
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC
66
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Majority of Low Income Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed Attend 2-Year
Colleges
Low Income Not Low Income0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
57%
38%
34%
51%
8% 11%
Central Texas HS Grads Enrolled in Higher Ed in Texas Within 1 Year, by Institution Type and Income Status, Class of 2012
2-year 4-year Public 4-year Independent
Pe
rce
nt
of
En
roll
ee
s
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC
67
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Only 1 in 5 Students at Austin Community College Attends School Full-time
Austin Community College
Concordia University
St. Edward's University
Texas State University
Huston-Tillotson University
UT-Austin
Southwestern University
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
20%
77%
81%
82%
87%
93%
99%
Full-time Part-time
Percent of Total Undergraduate Enrollment
68Source: THECB: 2013 Texas Public Higher Education Almanac; IPEDS
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Gap Between Low Income and Non-low Income High School Grads Increases in
College
Persisted Into Second Year Completed Within Six years0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
71%
28%
86%
53%
Percent of Central Texas HS Grads Enrolled in Texas Higher Ed that Persist Into Second Year and Complete in 6 Years, by Income Status,
Class of 2007
Low Income Non-low Income
Pe
rce
nt
of
Hig
he
r E
d E
nro
lle
es
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center69
© 2014 E3 Alliance
What are We Doing About it?
Creating a Community of Practice Connectivity Between Systems to build
Capacity for Supporting Students
70
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Creating a Community of Practice
• Sharing practices across college access/success providers—Austin College Access Network (ACAN)
• Improving data sharing for common students: FERPA-compliant data-sharing agreements between
IHE’s and community groups who are directly supporting ACAN students
Developing early warning system for struggling students to deepen services and supports
• Researching Pathways of Promise to identify which clusters and course patterns best prepare most challenged student to be successful in college and high demand careers
71
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Connectivity Between Systems
• Providing professional development for HS and college counselors in access and persistence targeted at groups of need
• Leveraging research, aligning policies and practices to put many more students on Pathways of Promise
• Implementing “near to peer” mentoring by students who have successfully navigated the 2-4 year transfer process
72
© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action
• Central Texas low income students lag the state in graduation rates and college enrollment rates
• Enrollment rates for low income students are increasing, overall enrollment is flat and completion is flat
• E3 Alliance targeting specific interventions and supports to help this population succeed with a credential that leads to a viable career
73
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Trends in higher education enrollment and success
Creating a community of practice to improve outcomes, especially for low income students
Connecting systems to enable change
74
© 2014 E3 Alliance
From Information to Action
Identify Data Insights
Change Practices& Build Capacity
Forge Collaborations
Build Common Agenda
Convene Stakeholders
Building Community
Creating Commitmentto Change
Sustaining a Culture of High Performance
Objective Data-Driven Decision Making
Change Systems
© 2014 E3 Alliance
The Bottom Line on Using Data to Change Practices &
Systems• Detailed analysis tied to real need enables
effective policy and practice decisions• Understanding leverage points helps communities
and leaders allocate resources cost effectively• Using data insights to craft a common agenda
allows different sectors to come together to deliver on systems change
Move from Information to Action
76
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Another PerspectiveWynn RosserExecutive DirectorGreater Texas Foundation
77
© 2014 E3 Alliance
• Using data to drive change
• Measuring School Readiness
• 3D Growth to improve
student & school performance
• College enrollment and
success
78
© 2014 E3 Alliance
We’re investing in E3 Alliance because it’s the only real example we’ve seen of a backbone organization using action research to enable change—at scale—across sectors
79
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Why Invest in E3 Alliance?
1. E3 Alliance has built and tested a theory of change in education that has been implemented over the last 8 years—proven results in practice
2. This is a model that can be replicated and leveraged across the state and country…and is already having statewide impact today
3. This region’s massive demographic shift is a reflection of what is to come for the rest of the country—solving problems here provides a model for other regions
80
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Could your Organization?
• Scale• Invest in supporting and scaling this model for change
• Incubate• Leverage models and practices in this region to replicate to
other parts of the state or country
• Leverage Services• Use the experience and expertise of E3 staff to address
your challenges with action research
81
© 2014 E3 Alliance
Opportunities Going Forward?
Susan Dawson [email protected] Koenig [email protected] Shawn Thomas [email protected] Potter [email protected]
82
© 2014 E3 Alliance
www.e3alliance.org
The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas.