© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) Illustrate the Demographic Divide in 2008.

Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2008 World Population Data Sheet.

ITALYDEM. REP. OF THE CONGO

2008 Population 59.9 million 66.5 million

2025 Population 62.0 million 109.7 million

Population below Age 15 8.4 million 31.3 million

Population Age 65 and Older 11.9 million 1.7 million

Annual Births 568,000 2.9 million

Annual Deaths 575,000 843,000

Annual Natural Increase (births minus deaths) - 7,000 2.1 million

Annual Infant Deaths 2,300 270,000

Life Expectancy at Birth 81 years 53 years

Percent of Population Undernourished < 2.5% 74%

Chapter 2 Outline• World Population Growth• Geographic Distribution Of The

World’s Population• Global Variation In Population Size

And Growth• Global Demographic Contrasts

World Population Growth• During the first 90% of human existence,

the population of the world had grown only to the size of today’s New York City.

• Between 1750 and 1950, the world’s population grew from 800 million to 2.5 billion.

• Since 1950 it has expanded to more than six billion.

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death — The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History

Why Was Early Growth Slow?

• During the first 99% of human history death rates were high.

• During the hunting-gathering phase, life expectancy averaged 20 years. More than half of children born will died

before 5. The average woman who survived the

reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.

Why Are More Recent Increases so Rapid?• Acceleration in population after 1750 was

due to declines in the death rate that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. People were eating better, wearing

warmer clothes, bathing more often and drinking cleaner water.

• Continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility.

Worldwide

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bill

ion

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

ma

n

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

Sources: (United States) Ansley Coale and Melvin Zelnik (1963); and National Center for Health Statistics. (Bangladesh) United Nations;Demographic and Health Surveys; and other surveys

To Slow Population Growth, Developing Countries’ Fertility Decline Must Be Rapid.

Average Lifetime Births per Woman: 1800-2007

Decline or Growth, 2002-2025Percent

3

12

-17

-14

-8

6

Bulgaria (1.1)

Russia (1.1)

Italy (1.2)

Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)

South Korea (1.4)

China (1.8)

Country (average number of children per woman)

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Population in Countries With Low Fertility

Orange –Greater than 100 millionBlue - 50 and 100 millionGreen -40 and 50 millionYellow - 30 and 40 million

Lavender - 20 and 30 millionPink –10 and 20 millionGrey - 5 and 10 million.

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

–8000 4

–2000 27 0.07 1,051

–500 100 0.14 498

500 198 -0.01 -5,414

1000 290 0.08 906

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

1500 473 0.27 258

1800 945 0.42 163

1900 1,654 0.59 118

1920 1,860 0.61 113

1940 2,300 1.05 65

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

1960 3,039 1.33 52

1980 4,454 1.69 41

2000 6,071 1.25 55

2020 7,524 1.00 69

2040 8,492 0.65 106

Doubling Time• The time required for a population to

double if the current rate of growth continues.

• The doubling time is approximately equal to 69 divided by the growth rate.

• Estimate the world’s rate of growth in the year 2003 to be 1.2% per year, the doubling time is 58 years.

Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration

• Migration streams flow from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing ones: Latin America and Asia to the United

States Asia to Canada Africa and Asia to Europe

• In earlier decades, as population grew dense in a region, people moved to less populated areas.

European Expansion • Europeans began to stake out the less

developed areas of the world in the 15th and 16th centuries.

• Before this expansion, Europeans represented 18% of the world’s population.

• By the 1930s, people of European origin in Europe, North America, and Oceania accounted for 35% of the world’s population.

The Urban Revolution• As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the

world’s population lived in cities of 100,000 or more.

• More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size.

• Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.

World Population Increase

Time Period

Births DeathsNatural Increase

Year 132,594,000 56,826,000 75,768,000

Day 363,271 155,688 207,584

Hour 15,136 6,487 8,649

Minute 252 108 144

Second 4 2 2

Future Population GrowthMore

Developed Nations

LessDeveloped

NationsWorld

Population in 2000(millions)

1,194 4,877 6,071

Medium fertility- Projection to 2050

1,220 7,699 8,919

Low fertility -Projection to 2050

1,084 6,3257,409

High fertility- Projection to year

20501,370 9,263

10,633

World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Year 82,866,000 2,083,000 80,784,000

Day 227,030 5,707 217,294

Minute 158 4 154

2009

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

How Many People Have Ever Lived?

Historical Period

# Born During the Period (billions)

Cumulative Total Born (billions)

200,000 BC to 8,000 BC

2.1 2.1

8,001 BC to AD 0 16.7 18.8

AD 1 to 1799 29.4 48.2

1800 to 1899 3.6 51.8

1900 to 1949 2.6 54.4

1950 to 2003 6.5 60.9