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© 2008 IBM Corporation1
Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050
Jeff JonasIBM Distinguished Engineer
© 2008 IBM Corporation2
Collections of
technologies
create big effects.
© 2008 IBM Corporation3
The World Becomes Less Dangerous
1900:WesternEurope
37
Today:Global
Average
67
Avg A
ge
1300’s:“Black Death”
75M~17+%
300M~4.5%
Today:If America
sunk into oceanand everyone
dies
Num
ber
Dead
© 2008 IBM Corporation4
2050 Prediction
Your doctor is 102 and this is not
weird.
© 2008 IBM Corporation5
Much More … Much Faster & Much Easier
Mark Zuckerberg(FaceBook)
2005:<3 years
1953: 140,000
deaths
Diffi
cult
y
1st Nuke(130,000 people, $37B)
Re-animation of 1918 Spanish
Influenza(<50 people, <$100k)
Today: 160,000,000
deaths
BAD!
1870:Many years
John DRockerfeller
Years
to $
1B
GOOD!
© 2008 IBM Corporation6
2050 Prediction
Your 14-year-old neighbor makes $10B from their
bedroom.
© 2008 IBM Corporation7
Surveillance is irresistible.
Sensorsbecome ubiquitous.
Piles of data become one.
© 2008 IBM Corporation8
Information in Context
© 2008 IBM Corporation9
Information in Context
© 2008 IBM Corporation10
Collective Intelligence in the Clouds
© 2008 IBM Corporation11
2050 Prediction
Collective intelligence will locate what you need to know … and tell you!
© 2008 IBM Corporation12
2050: Insight From Above
“Jump to theright 1 foot!”
Observations of
migratory birds
Data about where you are
right now
© 2008 IBM Corporation13
… you and your doctor
…
When collective intelligence serves …
… the police looking at you
…
LOVE!
HATE!
© 2008 IBM Corporation14
Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050
Jeff JonasIBM Distinguished Engineer
