© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Open Book Scenarios Workshop 2 Richmond 2-3 October 2006

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency

Open Book ScenariosWorkshop 2 Richmond

2-3 October 2006


Binder Filing Instructions1. Place pages 9 and 10 at end of

Master Contents list (before Tab1)2. Replace pages 5-1 – 5-3 with new

pages 5-1 and 5-23. Place ‘Workshop 1 Report’ after

Tab 10 (Pages 10-1 – 10-35)4. Place ‘Workshop 2 Pre-Reading’

after Tab 11 (Pages 11-1 – 11-17)5. Place ‘Workshop 2’ after Tab 12

(Pages 12-1 – 12-30)


The Next Two Days

Melanie


Day One

1. Map Conversations2. Rate and Rank Critical IMPAXES3. Develop Influence Maps of

Nine Plausible Worlds 4. Create and Share Internally

Consistent Worlds


Day Two

5. Thought Leader Challenge to Indicative Worlds

6. Generating and Synthesising Indicative Worlds (Proto-Scenarios)

7. Develop Timelines of theseProto-Scenarios

8. Craft Basic Scenario Narratives

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Learning to be Strategic

EPISODE 3

Challenges Scenarios

Designs Testing

Scenario

Narratives

EPISODE 2Learning to Generate

Scenarios

INSPECT

Influences

Environmental

Critical

Logics

Uncertainties

Scenario

Scenario Planning as an integrated ‘Structured Episode’ Experiential Learning Process

Identification

EPISODE 1

Learning to Identify and Focus Issues

Question

Design

Analysis

Framing

Key Factor Issues

Plausible

Strategy Strategic

Strategic

Question


Hundreds of Different Influences

From

Eight Easy Stepsin

to Four Different Scenario

Narratives


SESSION 1:BRINGING OURSELVES

UP TO SPEED

Richard


Mapping the move from hundreds to fifty

KEY


Analysing the Maps: A ‘Meta’ Activity

KEY


SESSION 2:Renewing, reviewing and rating

the IMPAXES

Oliver


The IMPAX MatrixHIGHEST

LOWEST

LOWEST HIGHEST

IMPACT

UNCERTAINTY


HIGHEST

LOWEST

LOWEST HIGHEST

IMPACT

UNCERTAINTY

The IMPAX Matrix


Please record your group colour and notes on the

table sheet provided


SESSION 3:Developing critical

influence maps

Howard


Influence Mapping





Future Present

From Influence Map to Plausible World





SESSION 4:Presenting Plausible Worlds

Melanie


Presenting Plausible Worlds

• Listen to each presentation.

• Discuss the presentation.

• Note ‘closeness’ to your world.

• Decide on a closeness rating.

• Record your rating





Tomorrow’s process will demand clear heads

so, tonight, please be cautious.


Day Two

5. Thought Leader Challenge to Indicative Worlds

6. Generating and Synthesising Indicative Worlds (Proto-Scenarios)

7. Develop Timelines of theseProto-Scenarios

8. Craft Basic Scenario Narratives


SESSION 5:Critical Reflection

Melanie


Critical Reflection• Recall – what you have learnt (cognition)

• Relive – new ways of learning and thinking, and their impact (metacognition)

• Re-interpret – insights about the meanings you construct (epistemic cognition)

• Respond – action on reflection


SESSION 6:Views from Thought Leaders

and Plenary Discussion

Oliver


Thought Leader Challenge• Danny Kennedy, Campaign Manager of Greenpeace• Dr Helen Caldicott, author of Nuclear Power is not the

Answer• Jay Ogilvy, GBN futurist• Jim Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency• Mary MacLeod, Director of National Family & Parenting

Institute UK• Dr Terry Turney, Director of Australian CSIRO

Nanotechnology Centre• Wendy McCarthy, Director of McCarthy Management• John Peterson, President of the Arlington Institute US


SESSION 7:Generating Indicative

Worlds (Proto-Scenarios) through synthesis

Richard & Matthew


Proto – Scenarios: Group consensus


Proto – Scenarios: table of rankings “1 – 8” unlike to like:


Proto – Scenarios: radar inter-graphic

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Orange

Green

Purple

Blue

GoldBlack

Red

Pink

Aqua

Orange Green Purple Blue Gold Black Red Pink Aqua


Proto – Scenarios: working with the table of results, we can see the following:

Low degree of likeness(scores of 1 or 2):

Orange – gold, black, aquaGreen - pinkBlue – greenRed – orange, purple, aquaPink – greenAqua – orange, green, red

High degree of likeness(scores of 6 or 8):

Blue – blackGold – blue, black, purpleBlack – pink, blue, goldRed – blackAqua – blue, pink


Proto – Scenarios: a possible picture of relative locality


SESSION 8:Building proto scenarios

Howard


This is a world in which …


• Write ten short sentences describing your world, brainstorm them in your group. They should be things about your world, each starting with:

“This is a world in which…”• Be very specific.• Mention things you can see, smell, hear, taste and touch.

Make them real.

Do you notice any tensions dilemmas or surprises about what it is like to live in your world?





SESSION 9:SCENARIO NARRATIVES

Bernard


Without stories, maybe

we’re just monkeys

with bank accounts

Why write scenario stories?


The scenario writer at work

As the next step, I write a scenario… minutely setting down, not only the scenes as they follow, the actions of the personages engaged, the sense of all they have to say, but even the ‘stage business’.

P Simpson 1884


Scenario narratives transform the indicative timelines into stories.

We create stories about the future peopled with characters who portray what you have conceived; stories that brings the future to life dramatically. And stories which ultimately help us re-perceive the present; to learn from the future


Ideally, by creating drama, a scenario narrative also

exposes the tensions inherent in each future.


SESSION 10:Developing timelines

for proto-scenarios

Howard


SESSION 11:

THE NEXT STEPS

Oliver


OCTOBER• Prepare and distribute W2 report• Retain scenario building groups (SBGs) as created for

CONCERTO; SYMPHONY;FUGUE; SONATA• Draft scenario narratives from W2 and distribute

narratives to the SBGs for naming, and refinement “on line”

• Review of next draft by Mentor Groups –

OLIVER SYMPHONY

RICHARD SONATA

HOWARD CONCERTO

MELANIE FUGUE


NOVEMBER• Distribute scenario summaries to Virtual

Teams for comment “on line”

• Distribute scenario summaries to Reference Group for review at RG F2F meeting in mid-November

• Finalise scenario logics and scenario ‘influences’ table


DECEMBER

• Prepare draft scenario book


JANUARY - FEBRUARY

• Prepare Early Warning Signals with SBGs ‘online’

• Write scenario cameos• Complete all scenario book draft materials• Distribute scenario book to Mentor Groups

for review• Amendment, design, editing and passing for

press


MARCH• W3 “Scenarios to Strategy”

• 5-6 March 2007 Rydges Melbourne

Documents

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Open Book Scenarios Workshop 2 Richmond 2-3 October 2006