© 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Population Growth World population has been growing at a rapid pace during the last 200 years. 30,000 years ago

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

World Population Growth

• World population has been growing at a rapid pace during the last 200 years.

• 30,000 years ago there was 1 person for every 200 square miles of the earth's surface.

• If current rates of population growth continue, in 1,000 years there will be 100 people for each square yard


A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History


•


Factors that Determine World Population Growth

• Factors that determine population growth

– 1) The birth rate– 2) The death rate

• What explains the rapid population growth of the last 200 years?

– Exponential growth (similar to compound interest)


• In 1850, the human population reached its first billion. • By 1930, it was 2 billion.• By 1960, the human population reached 3 billion.• Then in 1975, 4 billion, and so on…


World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries (less China)

Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004

Minute 154 2 151 137

2005

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.


Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

World Population Growth – Less Developed Compared to More Developed Countries


Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Projected Population Change, by Country

Percent Population Change, 2005-2050


Thomas Malthus1766-1834

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

© Student Handouts, Inc.


Malthus’ Expectations & Reality

• Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production•


0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050

Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope


U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas

Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999

Suburban Urban Rural

1950-1999Millions


1960

World population

reached 3 billion

Time MagazineJanuary 1960

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011


We will add nearly 6 million people by 2030,

an increase of 36 percent from 2000

the equivalent of two cities the size of Chicago


Population Growth Population Growth Southern California, 1980-2020Southern California, 1980-2020

Population Growth Population Growth Southern California, 1980-2020Southern California, 1980-2020

THE CHANGING CLIENTELE FOR PLANNING

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020


THE CHANGING CLIENTELE FOR PLANNING

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Hispanic

AmericanIndian

Asian PI

NH Black

NH White

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FUTURE = SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FUTURE = A GROWING LATINO POPULATIONA GROWING LATINO POPULATION

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FUTURE = SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FUTURE = A GROWING LATINO POPULATIONA GROWING LATINO POPULATION


Where Americans Would Like To Live Where Americans Would Like To Live

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Small town notnear a city

Rural area

Not sure

Large city

Suburb nearlarge city

Fannie Mae, 1998


*Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races

**Hispanic origin based on Spanish language.

Note: 1970-90 Figures are from sampled counts.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

US Population Comparison by Ethnic Group, 1970-2050(Numbers in thousands)

Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1970** 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TOTALPOPULATION

WHITE ALONE,NON-LATINOPOPULATION

LATINOPOPULATION

BLACK ALONEPOPULATION

ASIAN ALONEPOPULATION

ALL OTHERRACES*POPULATION


Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Gender and Age for California and Its Counties 2000-2050, Sacramento, California, May 2004.

Note: The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by gender, race/ethnicity and age. For the purposes of this projection, the seven-race/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive.

Minority refers to Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and American Indian populations.

California Population Comparison by Ethnic Group, 2000-2050

Data compiled by the William C. Velasquez Institute

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TOTAL

ANGLO

HISPANIC

ASIAN/ PACIFIC ISLANDER

BLACK

MULTIRACE

AMERICAN INDIAN

Documents

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Population Growth World population has been growing at a rapid pace during the last 200 years. 30,000 years ago