© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: An Economist’s Perspective ITC 2005 Las Vegas, NV Carolyn A. Kahn The

© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: An Economist’s PerspectiveAn Economist’s Perspective

ITC 2005ITC 2005Las Vegas, NVLas Vegas, NV

Carolyn A. KahnCarolyn A. KahnThe MITRE CorporationThe MITRE Corporation

[email protected]@mitre.org312-828-9196312-828-9196



2


Outline

Introduction Context & scope Overview of economic model Methodology Preliminary results

3


Introduction

The flight test community faces a telemetry spectrum crunch Amount of spectrum now allocated for ATM is not sufficient to meet

needs and requirements have been steadily growing

ATM spectrum is vital to both commercial and military flight testing There are economic implications associated with the allocation of

spectrum for ATM Economic considerations are important to the proposal currently

before the ITU– Agenda Item 1.5 of WRC 2007 calls for the allocation of additional

spectrum for wideband ATM in the 3-30 GHz band

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megzhertz; Kbps: Kilobits per second; ITU: International Telecommunication Union; WRC: World Radio Conference; GHz: Gigzhertz

4


Context & Scope

MITRE tasked to build a model to evaluate the economic importance of having adequate accessibility to ATM spectrum

MITRE team developed robust economic analysis methodology to forecast future scenarios– Exercised conservatism in modeling costs

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry

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Overview of Economic Model

Economic model incorporates: Robust bottoms-up ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM) Estimation of probable future scenarios on a test range

over 20+ year period (2004-2024+)– Annual comparison of estimated demand and supply of ATM

spectrum on a range – Calculation of resulting deficiency Gap

Estimated cost impacts of the Gap

Insight gained from the economic model substantiates the criticality of spectrum augmentation

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz

6


ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM)

Developed time series analysis based on statistical approaches and elements of Sarnoff model

BDM consists of two types of ATM spectrum demand– Future On-Going (FOG): average day-to-day requirements to

support routine flight test operations– Max User: requirements to support major new project

Incorporates efficiency gain expected from Tier 1, Tier 2, and iNet

Example Demand Forecast

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Year

MH

z

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; BDM: Bandwidth Demand Model; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry

7


Future Scenarios Developed scenarios to evaluate potential spectrum

environment in future Investigated 10 cases of ATM spectrum demand

– BDM model uses built-in toggles to explore sensitivities of various scenarios

Range operations base: number of simultaneous operations/users Range operations factor: allows the exploration of the effects of

growth in the number of simultaneous operations iNet usage factor: fraction of spectrum expected to be used for iNet iNet bandwidth reduction factor: expected percentage of reduction

in amount of data a vehicle needs to send as compared to current methods

Maximum user factor: multiplier to vary max user data as percent of original estimate

Tier 3 toggle: incorporates efficiency gain of a Tier 3 technology

Examined 5 cases of ATM spectrum supply– WRC augmentation of 0, 60, 200, 425, or 600 MHz

Analyzed sensitivities among the cases

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference;iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry

8


Identified and estimated cost impacts of the Gap

Analyzed multiple scenarios to understand sensitivities

Cost Impacts of Gap

TechnologyInvestments

Test Delays

InadequateTesting

Test Infrastructure Enhancements

2

1

3

4

Nominal Case

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Ba

nd

wid

th -

MH

z

WRC 0

WRC 60

WRC 200

WRC 650

WRC 425

MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference

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There are costs and potential benefits of investments in technology research initiatives

Estimated annual investment costs for ARTM, Tier 1 & 2 technologies, iNet, use of higher frequency bands, and other unforeseen, promising technologies

Potential benefits (e.g., improved efficiencies) of these investments are incorporated within growth rates of demand data

Technology Investment1

ARTM: Advanced Range Telemetry; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry; GHz: Gigahertz; $M: Millions of Dollars

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

Year

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Inve

stm

ent

(in

$M

)

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There are costs associated with unplanned test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access

There are unplanned delays on a test range today– One large test delay per week costs $1M– Three small test delays per week cost $50K x 3 = $150K

Today, test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access cost $60M per year!

Cost of Delays2

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; M: Million; K: Thousand

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Examined cost to provide new or additional range resources for flight testing in different geographic areas– Huge cost to programs and national economy

Issues remain:– Are there alternative ranges available far enough away from

existing ranges to allow for spectrum reuse?– Will legal, environmental, and political consent be given to

provide new range resources far enough away from existing ranges accessing ATM spectrum to allow for spectrum reuse?

In the present environment, these are not realistic options!

Test Infrastructure Enhancements3

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry

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Model incorporates cost of inadequate testing Lack of access to ATM spectrum leads to test point shedding

which leads to reduction in test quality At some point, not testing results in catastrophes and fatalities Based on specific cost of inadequate testing case

30 lives lost!*– GAO: in part due to inadequate test & evaluation**

To meet cost and schedule targets, actual testing conducted was less then a third of that originally planned

$1.6B per incident!*

Inadequate Testing4

ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; B: Billion; *Calculation based on Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation data in internal DoD document; **GAO, 20 February 2001, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01369r.pdf

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Preliminary Results

Model does not incorporate the risk of depending on test infrastructure enhancements– Legal, environmental, political, and large upfront investment hurdles may not be overcome– In present environment, not a realistic option

WRC spectrum augmentation of 650 MHz is only scenario in which requirements are met in base case over next 20 years

Our choices today will determine how we will flight test in the futureWill we be able to efficiently develop innovative aerospace products?

Costs are significantly mitigated by:– Reducing testing delays (via spectrum augmentation and/or test infrastructure

enhancements)– Decreasing inadequate testing

WRC: World Radio Conference; MHz: Megahertz;

Documents

© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: An Economist’s Perspective ITC 2005 Las Vegas, NV Carolyn A. Kahn The