© 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts Number your paper from 1-20 For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions,

© 2003 Population Reference Bureau

World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts

• Number your paper from 1-20

• For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions, trends or patterns that you observe.


Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000Percent

74

51

88

68

48

85

69

90

83

72

World Africa Latin America/Caribbean

Asia Arab States/North Africa

Female Male

Adult Literacy, by Region

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (www.uis.unesco.org).


•Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. •However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 51 percent in Africa, to 68 percent in Asia, to 88 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.•Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states and North Africa, where nearly three-fourths of men but less than half of all women are literate.

Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region


Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16

5-90-4

Age

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.


•Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.•Roughly one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In many sub-Saharan African countries, this proportion rises to nearly one-half of the population. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.•Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. •Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population


Millions

Annual Increase in World Population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2003.


Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1936-1938

1946-1948

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide



•Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. •Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. •Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.

Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide


Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.


Desire for Smaller Families

Women With Two Children Who Say They Want No More ChildrenPercent

22

13

52

29

50

2933

38

5960

Bangladesh Egypt Guatemala Kenya Zimbabwe

Late 1980s Late 1990s/Early 2000s

Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys, 1988-2000.


Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

6.7

6.0

6.67.0

5.5

6.9

6.35.8

8.2

3.5

7.0

5.1

3.33.0

2.4 2.3 2.4

4.3

Bangla-desh

Egypt India Indo-nesia

Iran Nepal Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1950-1955 2000-2005



Billions

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Countries

More Developed Countries



Millions

911

14

18 18

26

23 23

27

London Tokyo New York

Sao Paulo

MexicoCity

Tokyo Mumbai(Bombay)

Dhaka Tokyo

1960 2000 2015

Largest Cities, Worldwide

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002.


•The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly in size and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1960 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. •In 1960, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 14 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with nearly double this population size: 27 million.

Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide


Decline or Growth, 2002-2025Percent

3

12

-17

-14

-8

6

Bulgaria (1.1)

Russia (1.1)

Italy (1.2)

Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)

South Korea (1.4)

China (1.8)

Country (average number of children per woman)

Population in Countries With Low Fertility



•All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing —the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2025.•Although women in both Russia and Bulgaria have on average 1.1 children each (among the lowest rates in the world), Russia, with a slightly younger population, will lose a smaller proportion of its population (14 percent, compared with 17 percent for Bulgaria) between 2002 and 2025. Still, Russia, having a much bigger population, is projected to lose nearly 20 million people, whereas Bulgaria will probably shrink by just 1.5 million.

Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility


Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa East Asia South Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents.Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.


Reaching Replacement Fertility

Average number of children per woman

5.6 5.7

6.26.4

5.7

7.3

2.1 2.21.8 2.0 1.9 2.0

Azerbaijan Brazil China Mauritius Thailand Tunisia

1960-1965 2000-2005



1.10

1.10

1.10

1.00

1.14

1.16

1.15

1.15

1.15

1.14

Czech Republic

Armenia

Ukraine

Spain

Russian Federation

Slovenia

Macao SpecialAdminstrative Region

Bulgaria

Latvia

Hong Kong SpecialAdministrative Region

10 Places With the Lowest Birth Rates WorldwideAverage number of children per woman, 2000-2005



Trends in Aging, by World Region

Population Ages 65 and OlderPercent

7

3

6 6

14

11

4

10 10

21

World Africa Asia LatinAmerica/ Caribbean

MoreDevelopedRegions

2000 2025



Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region

• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older.

• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.

• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to nearly 475 million older people.


Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

44

5459

71

56

49

6770

76

65

Africa Asia LatinAmerica/Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

1965-1970 2000-2005

Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region



•Currently, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 65 years — up nine years since the late 1960s. •Asia has experienced the largest increase in life expectancy since the late 1960s: from 54 years to 67 years. •Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.

Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region


Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

7987

82 79 77 75 7369

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cen

t in

crea

se p

er y

ear



Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.

• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).

• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 69 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.


30

15 17

55

47

37 38

7560

53 54

84 83

41

75

World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2030

Urban PopulationPercent


Trends in Urbanization, by Region


•The world is becoming increasingly urban. By 2010, half of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas. Typically, the population living in towns of 2,000 or more, or in national and provincial capitals, is classified as urban. •Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. •By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.

Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region


Urbanization in Central America

Population Living in Urban AreasPercent

39 3936

29

47 48

6470

44

61 60 60

Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama

1970 2010 (projected)



Notes on Urbanization in Central America

• Urbanization in Latin America is a tale of two regions. Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years ago.


635450

50 4637

All Ages Ages 60+ Ages 80+

Women Men

Women and Aging

World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025Percent

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.


Notes on Women and Aging

• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).


Number of Women 15 to 49Billions

0.62

0.86

1.31

1.75

1.972.05

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Women of Childbearing Age



•The number of women of childbearing ages 15 to 49 more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.•Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections.•The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age


Worldwide

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bil

lio

ns

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ild

ren

pe

r w

om

an

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman

Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility



•The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase through 2050.•The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.•Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility


World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries (less China)

Year 80,903,481 916,337 79,987,144 71,675,164

Day 221,653 2,511 219,143 196,370

Minute 154 2 152 136

2003

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population Data Sheet.


Number of years to add each billion (year)

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion All of Human History (1800)

123 (1930)

33 (1960)

14 (1974)

13 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

15 (2028)

26 (2054)

World Population Growth, in Billions

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).


A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

World Population Growth Through History

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).


• World Population Clock

Documents

© 2003 Population Reference Bureau World Trends Analysis Using Graphs and Charts Number your paper from 1-20 For each Graph / Chart write down 2 conclusions,