# 1 CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON “APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES” N. SCOTT URQUHART RESEARCH SCIENTIST

# 1

CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDCSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ONPROGRAM ON

“APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL “APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS

TO AQUATIC RESOURCES”TO AQUATIC RESOURCES”

CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDCSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ONPROGRAM ON

“APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL “APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS

TO AQUATIC RESOURCES”TO AQUATIC RESOURCES”

N. SCOTT URQUHART

RESEARCH SCIENTIST

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

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> Indicatator Development - Statistical

Perspecitves

> EMAP Site Selection

> The EPA STAR Programs in Statistics (CSU

and OrSU)

> Data Management - Importance of Meta Data

> - Value of Analysis from a

Common Data Base

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FIRST - A NAMEFIRST - A NAMEFIRST - A NAMEFIRST - A NAME

THE PROGRAM UNDER DISCUSSION WILL BE

CALLED:

“SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES MODELING

AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM”

CONSEQUENCE: EASY ACRONYM = STARMAP

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OVERVIEW OF THIS TALKOVERVIEW OF THIS TALKOVERVIEW OF THIS TALKOVERVIEW OF THIS TALK

WHO IS INVOLVED

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (“RFA”)

RESPONSES FROM

CSU - Major Participants

Oregon State University

WHAT IS EMAP

IN PARTICULAR, EMAP-TYPE DATA

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WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?

Jay Breidt

Richard Davis

Jennifer Hoeting

Hari Iyer

Scott Urquhart

Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab

Robin Reich - Forest Science

Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering

Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA)(RFA)

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA)(RFA)

CONTENT REQUIREMENTS

RESEARCH IN STATISTICS

MANY OF US WOULD CALL THE REQUESTED

“RESEARCH” ADAPTATION or DEVELOPMENT

TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF

ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS

OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES

ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continuedcontinued

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continuedcontinued

MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT

“… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRAMS

ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE

COLLABORATIVE

RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY

DIVERSE SITES.”

CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO

PROGRAMS

SPECIFICALLY TO AVOID DUPLICATION OF EFFORT

===> JOINT ANNUAL MEETING ++

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continued III- continued III

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continued III- continued III

FUNDING LEVEL: $750K/YEAR/PROGRAM

THE TWO PROGRAMS:

DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY

METHODOLOGY - @ OSU

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING,

INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY

DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING - @ CSU

CHECK ON THE RFA @

http://es.epa.gov/ncerqa/rfa/aquastat01.html

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RESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSU

INSTITUTIONS:

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

STATISTICS

NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB

FOREST SCIENCE

BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER

RESEARCH PROJECT

WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT

1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

2. LOCAL INFERENCE

3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS

4. OUTREACH

5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION

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CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH

TAKE EXISTING SETS OF

PROBABILITY &

NON-PROBABILITY DATA

START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A

PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES

IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE

HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS

CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUEDCONTINUED


1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED

POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM

“HAND-PICKED”SITES

JENNIFER HOETING

DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH,

STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP),

LEECASTER (INL)

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2. LOCAL INFERENCE

SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION

JAY BREIDT

DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IICONTINUED II

CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IICONTINUED II

3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS

DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL

ANALYSES

LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS

DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES

ECOLOGY LAB

URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IIICONTINUED III


4. OUTREACH

“PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS

THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN

AND

ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES”

HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE

CSU RESPONSE

DAVIS, REICH,

JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING),

STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)

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5. ADMINISTRATION

INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION

URQUHART & DAVIS

STEVENS (OSU)

AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU)

GET ALL SORT OF REPORTS TO EPA IN A TIMELY

MANNER

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CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESCSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESCSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESCSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIES

POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS

DOCTORAL STUDENTS

FACULTY TIME

OTHER

SUBCONTRACT TO OSU

COMPUTING EQUIPMENT

SUPPORT/TRAVEL

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OSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSAL

SIMILARILY STRUCTURED

MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS

DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED

OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME

SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU

BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER

SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR

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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUTWHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUTWHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

THEY ARE THINGS LIKE

STREAMS

RIVERS

WETLANDS

LAKES & PONDS

ESTUARIES

PRAIRIE POTHOLES

NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS

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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

CONTINUEDCONTINUED


CONTINUEDCONTINUED

FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES,

THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES

PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER

INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO

STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT

MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW “BIG” ONES.

IMPLICATION:

UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING

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CONTINUED IICONTINUED II


CONTINUED IICONTINUED II

SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON

TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE

STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT

TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-

SPACE

BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS

COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE

CHALLENGE:

MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES

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WHAT IS EMAP - THE DATA SOURCE?WHAT IS EMAP - THE DATA SOURCE?WHAT IS EMAP - THE DATA SOURCE?WHAT IS EMAP - THE DATA SOURCE?

EPA HAS AN OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND

DEVELOPMENT (ORD)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND

ASSESSMENT PROGRAM IS ONE OF ORD’s

“FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMS”

EVOLVED FROM A GROUP OF RELATED SURVEYS

OF STREAM AND LAKE CHEMISTRY DONE BY

EPA IN EARLY TO MID 1980’s.

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EMAP WASEMAP WAS(1989 - 1994)(1989 - 1994)

EMAP WASEMAP WAS(1989 - 1994)(1989 - 1994)

CONCEIVED TO PROVIDE AN INDICATION

OF THE STATUS AND TRENDS IN A

VARIETY OF ECOSYSTEMS

STATISTICALLY DEFENSIBLE

FOR “ALL” ECOSYSTEMS

SURFACE WATERS, WETLANDS, ESTUATIES & NEAR

COASTAL

FORESTS, AGRICULTURAL, ARID LANDS

INTENDED TO COOPERATE WITH OTHER AGENCIES

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EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITH EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITH EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITH EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITH

MOST EPA REGIONS

NE (1 & 2) IN MAJOR SURVEY OF LAKES

MIDATLANTIC (3) ON EXTENSIVE SURVEY OF

STREAMS

WESTERN RIVER AND STREAM PILOT (8, 9 & 10)

- IN PROGRESS

MANY STATES

OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES

NEXT PAGE

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EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHEMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED CONTINUED

EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHEMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED CONTINUED


USDA

FOREST SERVICE ===> MAJOR CHANGES IN THEIR

SURVEY PERSPECTIVES

NASS (NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICAL

SERVICE) MAINLY LED TO CHANGES IN RESPONSES

EVALUATED

INTERIOR

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES (FORMERLY PART OF FISH & WILDLIFE) SOME STREAM SURVEYS

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EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHEMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED IICONTINUED II

EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHEMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED IICONTINUED II


...

INTERIOR

…

BUREAU OF RECLAMATION

NATIONAL WETLANDS INVENTORY

COMMERCE

NOAA (NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC

ADMINISTRATION) - COAST WATCH PROGRAM

NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE ( A BIT)

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EMAP HAS CHANGED GREATLYEMAP HAS CHANGED GREATLYEMAP HAS CHANGED GREATLYEMAP HAS CHANGED GREATLY

CHANGED FROM A MONITORING PROGRAM

TO A PROGRAM ON RESEARCH ON MONITORING

EMPHASIS REDUCED TO SURFACE WATERS LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

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DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE

DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST

CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME

VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT

WITH SPATIAL BALANCE

CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED

TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL

MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL”

LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT

SEE A FEW ILLUSTRATIONS

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AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKES

LAKES in EPA REGIONS 1 & 2

= NY + NJ + NEW ENGLAND

EMAP = ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING and

ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

TIME = TEMPORALLY INTEGRATED

MONITORING of ECOSYSTEMS

EFFECT OF ACID RAIN IN MOUNTAINOUS NE

EVALUATED ONLY WATER CHEMISTRY

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AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETESAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETE

AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETESAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETE

TWO STEP SELECTION PROCESS

FIRST STEP = SPATIALLY SYSTEMATIC

EMAP = 1/64 EACH YEAR

FOUR YEARS ===> 1/16 AREA SAMPLE

SECOND STEP = PROBABILITY

INCLUSION PROB VARIED BY LAKE SIZE CLASS

SPATIAL RESTRICTION - MILD CAN BE DESCRIBED FOR INTERESTED PEOPLE

TIME IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME, EXCEPT AN

ADDITIONAL 2/64 EXTRACTION WAS DONE

ONLY IN ITS AREAS OF INTEREST

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MAP OF SITES VISITED

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AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAPSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP

AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAPSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP

UNIQUE ----- REVISITS -----

SITES SAME YEAR NEXT YR

1991 65 25 0

1992 77 15 7

1993 85 7 7

1994 79 6 6

1995 52 6 6

TOTAL 306 53 20

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AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP + TIMESAMPLE SIZES: EMAP + TIME

AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESAN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP + TIMESAMPLE SIZES: EMAP + TIME

UNIQUE ----- REVISITS -----

SITES SAME YEAR NEXT YR

1991 93 25 0

1992 124 15 7

1993 106 8 8

1994 107 9 8

1995 70 8 8

TOTAL 430 57 23

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MIDATLANTIC HIGHLANDS ASSESSMENTMIDATLANTIC HIGHLANDS ASSESSMENT(MAHA) of STREAMS(MAHA) of STREAMS

MIDATLANTIC HIGHLANDS ASSESSMENTMIDATLANTIC HIGHLANDS ASSESSMENT(MAHA) of STREAMS(MAHA) of STREAMS

MOSTLY IN EPA REGION 3

PA, VA, WV, MD, NY/NJ

MANY PARTICIPANTS

FUNDING = EMAP - OVER WHOLE STUDY REGION

TIME - UPLAND STREAMS FOR ACID DEPOSITION

REMAP = REGIONAL EMAP - REGION 3

VALLEY STREAMS IN “RIDGE & VALLEY” AREA

STATE PERSONNEL VERY INVOLVED IN FIELD

WORK

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MAHA Study Design:

Probability

Survey

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EMAP ILLUSTRATION: EMAP ILLUSTRATION: WESTERN STREAMS & RIVERSWESTERN STREAMS & RIVERS


EPA REGIONS 8, 9 & 10

8 = ND, SD, MT, WY, CO, UT

9 = AZ, NV, CA

10 = WA, OR, ID

ACTUALLY TWO INDEPENDENT STUDIES

“BLUE LINES” LABELED AS “NONPERENNIAL” BY

USGS IN DIGITIZED 1:100,000 MAP

FILES

FIELD VISITS TO POINTS LABELED “PERENNIAL”

# 37

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EMAP SAMPLE COVERS ENTIRE STUDY

AREA

REGIONS, AS REMAP, INTENSIFIED SAMPLE IN

CERTAIN LOCATIONS

REGION 8: MIDDLE MISSOURI & SD

REGION 9: MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA & AN AREA IN NW CALIFORNIA

REGION 10: AN AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL WA AND

NORTH CENTRAL OR

# 39



SAMPLING MODEL

CONTINUOUS

USED ENTIRE RF3

===> NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHY DATASET NONPERENNIAL PERENNIAL

AS SAMPLING FRAME

VARIED SAMPLING DENSITY DEPENDING ON STREAM ORDER or RIVER SIZE WITH SPATIAL RESTRICTIONS STRATIFICATION BY STATE

# 40

OREGON - WESTERN PILOTOREGON - WESTERN PILOTOREGON - WESTERN PILOTOREGON - WESTERN PILOT

# 41

OREGON WESTERN PILOT + OREGON WESTERN PILOT + DESCHUTES/JOHN DAYDESCHUTES/JOHN DAY

OREGON WESTERN PILOT + OREGON WESTERN PILOT + DESCHUTES/JOHN DAYDESCHUTES/JOHN DAY

# 42

SAMPLING THE CALIFORNIA BIGHTSAMPLING THE CALIFORNIA BIGHTCONTINUOUS IN TWO DIMENSIONSCONTINUOUS IN TWO DIMENSIONSSAMPLING THE CALIFORNIA BIGHTSAMPLING THE CALIFORNIA BIGHTCONTINUOUS IN TWO DIMENSIONSCONTINUOUS IN TWO DIMENSIONS

MANY LOCAL AND MULTI-COUNTY

JURISTICTIONS

VARIED SAMPLING RATE BY OCEAN DEPTH

CONCENTRATED SAMPLING CLOSE TO SEWAGE

“OUTFALLS”

NESTING OF VARIABLES EVALUATED INCLUDED

IN SPATIAL CONTROL

# 43

SELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATIONSELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATIONSELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATIONSELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATION

# 44

DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUEDCONTINUED

DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUEDCONTINUED

IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT

DEVELOPMENT OF THEM

STATISTICS INCLUDED

EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM

FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY

CONTINUOUS

POPULATIONS

NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE

ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR) UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE

# 45

FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES

STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE

CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER

THEIR JURISTICTION

A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE

CLEAN WATER ACT

RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS

STARTING IN 2004 THE RECOMMENDED

STANDARDS WILL CHANGE TO BEING

BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING

OUTREACH PROJECT OPPORTUNITY!

Documents

# 1 CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON “APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES” N. SCOTT URQUHART RESEARCH SCIENTIST