How to design the future

Jeffrey Tjendra

Giacomo Bracci Helsen

HOW TO DESIGN THE FUTURE

http://businessinnovationbydesign.com

The future is not predicted, but created.

The future of business relies on the changes in the industry.

If the only constant is change, businesses must change to remain relevant in their industry.

Change happens in the industry as existing markets shifts to an evolved market or when new markets are created.

Futures thinking is required to identify where the industries are shifting towards.

Designing the future is the field of strategic foresight.

Strategic foresight identifies the future.

Innovation is moving from now to the future.

Design makes the future tangible.

UNDERSTAND THE CONTEXT

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

DESIGN THE VALUE ORCHESTRATE FOR GROWTH

The future is designed in 2 phases.




The context needs to be understood through the lenses of hindsight, insight, and foresight.

On hindsight, business analysis needs to be conducted to use past patterns in order to predict emerging patterns.

Existing and potential users are empathized to identify insights that reveal not only unmet needs, but latent desires of what users do not know they want.

Implications of the future needs to be understood by anticipating trends that will set the direction of what might be in the future.


Phase 1 Phase 2

DESIGN THE VALUE

Creativity is used to imagine new ideas that results in the creation of new values.

Values in the context of innovation are in the form of products, services, experiences, processes, business models, and policies.

The types of values are revealed from the emerging patterns of business analysis.

Values are created to satisfy unmet needs and latent desires of users based on customer insights.

Values are created in alignment with what will happen in the future based on trends foresight.

Thus, the creation of values of what might be in the future is the future created by design.

BID model is a framework that guides businesses on what and how to innovate and grow.

The future is designed through the act of block sequencing.

The Future of E-Cigarette

Case Study by Giacomo Bracci Helsen, Senior Innovation Strategist

uk.linkedin.com/in/giacomobracci

The tobacco industry is on a decline. External forces such as tight regulations and growing number of health-conscious consumers are contributing to the shrinking of traditional cigarette market.E-cigarette has emerged as a new market showing a double-digit

figures trend without clear market leader. Tobacco companies have realized the market opportunity to transition from cigarette to

e-cigarette. Vaping will become the new smoking.

How might tobacco companies disrupt the status quo and shift towards a new model?




First, we’d like to understand the market landscapes of cigarette and e-cigarette markets.

Through desk research, assumptions are made clear that big tobacco companies like Philip Morris are experiencing a steady decline in revenue.

It is evident through data analysis that the global cigarette market is on steady decline as demand continues to fall.

Meanwhile e-cigarette market is at its early stage set for rapid growth with nearly double figures year-on-year growth.

Existing e-cigarettes products in the market are analyzed and understood.

TOOL / PROS-CONS CHART

E-cigarette as a product is analyzed from the perspectives of the consumers. Pros and cons are weighed and measured by each impact. Thus acquiring wisdom on the representational state of e-cigarette products.

TOOL / COMPETITIVE MATRIX

Existing e-cigarette products in the market are mapped out to understand the competitors, their products, as well as the perceptions imposed in each of them.


Different types of e-cigarettes are sorted into categories and analyzed further to provide a wider understanding of the existing market.


By now, we have understood how each products have multiple qualities, and discovered the gap within each categories.

Then we identify what activities are going in the e-cigarette market by current players.

TOOL / MILESTONE TIMELINE

There will be more activities by companies as market grows. Activities revolving around e-cigarettes by different companies are tracked to view the progression of the market.

We make sense of e-cigarette from different perspectives.

TOOL / SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of e-cigarette are charted in the perspective of tobacco companies to understand how the new market is and will affect them.

TOOL / AFFINITY DIAGRAM

Making sense of what causes smoking addiction, we look to understand the wisdom of through the psychological, physiological, and habitual lenses.

TOOL / STAKEHOLDERS MAP

Identifying who are the direct and indirect stakeholders are necessary to gain insights on who and how e-cigarettes will affect them and each other.

The future is understood by knowing and anticipating what might happen.

TE

CH

NO

LOG

Y

Foreseeing possible future events in both cigarette and e-cigarette industries across 5 interdependent lenses.

This allows the anticipation of actions and consequences of when and what may happen in the future.

TOOL / STEEP TIMELINE

“You’re not downgrading from a cigarette. You’re

getting something more.”

“I don’t like buying mass produced stuff,” “I like buying something that

somebody built.”

“I stopped burning tobacco in 2009.”

Several trends are selected to deep-dive and understand its implication and significance of the trends to e-cigarette.

TOOL / TRENDS DEEPDIVE

According to a recent Center for Disease control report, schools across the country are reporting

an increase of e-cigarettes usage and school administrators are struggling to create policies that curb their usage or outright them. Among grade 6 to 12 students in the United States, those who have ever used the product increased from 3.3% in 2011 to 6.8% in 2012 - Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) (September 2013)


The device heats small pods of tobacco, unlike most e-cigarettes that use liquid

mixtures of nicotine and synthetic materials.


E-cigarettes are getting “smart”. The internet of things plays a role in shaping the experience of vaping while data-mining relevant data.

Two examples include Vuse and Smokio.

Smokio, an e-cigarette that tracks when you vape, where you vape, the amount of vapour given off with each puff, what’s the equivalent consumption of a traditional cigarette; it also estimates how much your health has improved (blood oxigenation, hearth rejuvation). Since the device is connected through bluetooth, the mobile app records a variety of data about your vaping habits. The user can also manage some functions of the e-cigarette itself such as battery, for instance.


To understand how to move forward, we seek to understand aspirations for the future.

“There are many ways to enjoy tobacco, so it doesn’t necessarily have to be cigarettes...”

- Akira Saeki, Executive Deputy President of Japan Tobacco

“Vaping is one of those new disruptive technologies that could very well overtake the tobacco business and tobacco companies.”

- Kevin Frija, Chairman and CEO of Vapor Corp

“I do see and believe that e-cigarettes will over time start replacing the cigarette...”

- Stephanie Cordisco, President of RJ Reynolds Vaping Company

“The single greatest growth opportunity for us lies in the commercialization of reduced-risk products...’

- André Calantzopoulos, CEO of Philip Morris

TOOL / EXPERT OPINIONS

Knowing the perceptions and visions of CEOs of tobacco companies and e-cigarette startups towards e-cigarette validate the desire that that e-cigarette is a huge market opportunity to dive into.

THERE IS A NEED FOR DIVERSIFICATION

For decades tobacco products have been extremely lucrative and there has not been a sense of urgency for cigarette companies to diversify into other markets. However, with their core products in the midst of a structural, long-term decline, cigarette companies have little choice but to expand into new territory and innovate the e-cigarette market.




The future is envisioned to create scenarios of what could be.

TOOL / DISRUPTION AMPLIFICATION MAP

New products and services are created as parts of a system. The design of the next generation e-cigarette are part of an ecosystem of complementary products and services that add values.

Complementary and latent products and services are revealed to know where and what to innovate in order to create a holistic experience for vaping e-cigarettes.

TOOL / SCENARIO PLAN

Several future scenarios are explored on what conditions could potentially be the next-generation e-cigarette.

FROM SURROGATE TO ALTERNATIVETECHNOLOGY COMMODIFICATION

FROM PLANTS TOALKALOIDS

Breakthrough ideas are imagined and designed that define e-cigarette innovation.

TOOLS / CROSS-POLLINATION, METAPHOR COMPARISON, WHAT IF

Scenarios envisioned are converted into new ideas by cross-pollinating ideas from other industries and placing metaphors to imagine the future of e-cigarette. Hence, ideas are generated by asking “what if?”

TOOLS / CROSS-POLLINATION, METAPHOR COMPARISON, WHAT IF

DATAMINING

SMARTRECOMMENDATION

DATAMINING

SMARTRECOMMENDATION

TOOL / DISRUPTION AMPLIFICATION MAP

Ideas are clustered and improved into concepts. Using system thinking and visualization, the “big idea” of what the future of e-cigarette is created in big picture.

TOOL / USAGE SCENARIOS

Multiple usage scenarios of the big idea of the future of e-cigarette is explored. Each scenario is an opportunity to create new values for specific target users in the defined area of opportunities.

Ideas required to be evaluated to select what and when to implement.

TOOL / EVALUATION MATRIX

Each scenarios are evaluated on a set of criteria that matters to cigarette company. In this case, the level of implementation and impact matters on which usage scenarios will be executed, thus allocating capabilities and management system required.

The future of any industry is anything imagined that makes new sense,

as creativity is the ability to create new logic that makes better sense.

HOW WILL YOU DESIGN THE FUTURE?

HOW TO DESIGN THE FUTURE

BUSINESS INNOVATION DESIGN

Jeffrey TjendraCreator & Design Executive Officer (DEO)[email protected]

http://businessinnovationbydesign.com@BIDmodel

http://businessinnovationbydesign.com

http://twitter.com/BIDmodel