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The FAST Plan was developed by a collaboration of community groups an an alternative to the official regional transit plan in order to apply cutting-edge principles to developing a more effective, world-class transit system for the San Diego metropolitan region. Part IX shares the results of our detailed analysis of the costs of building and operating the FAST Plan and of potential ridership. Overall, the data suggest that the FAST Plan could close to double ridership per dollar invested, savings the region billions of dollars between now and 2050 and better accomplishing many regional goals.
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Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 1© 2008 by The Mission Group
F.A.S.T. PlanDecember 2013
An affordable approach to creating a more
effective and user-friendly transit system
Financially Achievable —
Saves Time
Part IXResults: Costs & Benefits of the FAST Plan
Produced under the auspices of Move San Diego, Inc., and the Scripps Ranch/Miramar Ranch North Traffic Reduction Project.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 2
How many people would ride transit with the FAST Plan?
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 3
We can’t be sure, because we didn’t have access to
projected data for 2050, when the County will add well over one million people, many of
whom will live in “transit focus areas.”
However, we did have access to data for the year 2006…
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 4
FAST Plan Ridership (2006 Data)
Commuter Rail (Coaster) 4,150 1%Light Rail (SD Trolley) 78,000 10%Light Rail (Sprinter) 16,600 2%BRT (Core Routes) 180,000 23%BRT (MetroXpress) 286,000 36%Local Bus (MTS & NCTD) 128,000 16%Streetcar 98,000 12%Total “2006” Projected Ridership 790,000 100% 2008 Actual Transit Ridership 345,000 Gain in Ridership 445,000 (130%) .Likely 2050 Ridership > 1,000,000
Service WeekdayRidership
% of DailyTrips
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 5
2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows
2005 Trolley Flow: 23,000
Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry more riders—in some places,
more than 3x more—than the busiest segment of the Trolley did in 2005
(or even 2013).
Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry more riders—in some places,
more than 3x more—than the busiest segment of the Trolley did in 2005
(or even 2013).
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 6
2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows Again, ridership projections were made using San Diego’s 2006 population and land use.
As San Diego grows and more people live by transit, projected ridership should be expected to increase significantly.
Even so, ridership flows on the North/Central component of the FAST Plan are equal to or better than existing Trolley lines.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 7
Why would so many new people ride the
FAST Plan?
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 8
Faster (shorter) travel times
Fewer transfers
Less waiting
Better station/stop location
Greater reliability
Overall, the FAST Plan offers:
Than our region’s current plans.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 9
Just what would it cost to build?
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 10
% of Total Plan Guideway Length
10% 10%
19%21%
22%
12%
3%2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Bridge Elevated At Grade(New)
At Grade(Existing)
Cut &Open
Cut &Cover
BoredTunnel
SurfaceRail
Total Miles: 171
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 11
SANDAG RTP Capital Costs
Mode Millions
BRT 1,028$
Heavy Rail 2,617$
Light Rail 14,416$
Rapid Bus 997$
Streetcar 67$
Total 19,125$
Our region’s 2050 Regional Transportation Plan anticipates spending over $19 billion just for public transit capital projects.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 12
FAST Plan Capital Costs
Depending on how you slice and dice it, the FAST Plan may save the region up to $5 billion in direct capital costs, and may make
some road projects unnecessary, saving further dollars.
FAST Plan 13,872,950,075$
RTP 2050 19,125,000,000$
FAST Plan Savings 5,252,049,925$
Cost Difference 27%
Capital Cost Comparison
*
*The FAST Plan also includes approximately $1 billion in road projects which are not included in this comparison since they would not be funded from the transit portion of the RTP.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 13
But could we afford to operate all those new
services?
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 14
Comparative Operating Subsidy
*Depending on cost model used. All models only assume ridership based on 2006 tables for FAST Plan.
SANDAG RTP $20 Billion
FAST Plan $11-14 Billion*
Cost Savings to the Region: $6-9 Billion(30-45%)
Through 2050
We understand the difficulty in projecting long term operating costs and passenger revenue. Our modeling does indicate, though,
that a faster transit system can save the region billions.
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 15
Conclusion:The FAST Plan, as a strategic approach to
creating a better integrated transit network, can:
Reach into more places
Save people more travel time
Better support “smart growth” areas
Attract many more riders
Better improve automotive traffic and
Cost significantly less to build and operate
than our current transit plans.
