.id SAFi Victoria launch event 23 November 2017

Victoria’s population

6.33MILLION

7.64MILLION

8.87MILLION

Agenda

Introducing SAFi

Population growth trends: Marvellous Melbourne

Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level

Questions

Food & drink

SmallAreaForecastinformation

What is SAFi

SAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast

Quantifies the demand for services across geographies and over time

Available for VIC, NSW, ACT & WA

Reflects development activity at a local level

Regularly updated

Proven over 12 years – fifth iteration for Victoria

Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population – macro

and the micro level.

What SAFi can tell you?

Dwellings

Population

Household types

Age structure by single years (0-90+ year olds)

Breakdown by male/female

For every year from 2011 to 2041

For any geographic unit from state to

7,185 SA1-derived areas

SAFi is granular…. 7,185 small areas

Population change by SAFi area, 2016-2026, Melbourne

Source: .id SAFi, 2017

-168 to -25

-25 to 250

250 to 500

500 to 1,000

1,000 to 2,000

2,000 to 10,000

We work closely with 300 councils…

…and community builders

dwellings

How do we build SAFi?

migration

household types

How do we build SAFi?

Small areas

Building approvals

Property databases

Council input

Land use changes

Aerial photography

household types

dwellings

migration

Utilities & developers

Identify dwellings and timings

Identify dwellings and timings

Construction & development timing - Tarneit

October 2016

Marvellous Melbourne

Marvellous Melbourne – Reborn?

Victorian Population Growth Trends

Ageing of the population

Changing housing consumption

Three growth markets

Local and regional changes

Questions

Marvellous Melbourne reborn?

With thanks to George Augustus Sala from 1885

And Graeme Davison

It was on the 17th of March, in the present year of Grace, 1885, that I made my first entrance, shortly before high noon, into Marvellous Melbourne.

Marvellous Melbourne reborn?

Melbourne on the March – its growing urban form

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Popu

latio

n

Year ending June 30

Melbourne’s population through time

Gold Rush

Marvellous Melbourne

1890s downturn

Post-war baby and migration boom

1990s recession

Marvellous Melbourne reborn

1857

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945 1971

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016 2026

The growth of Melbourne

1857 1890 1920 1945 1971 1996 2016 2026 2041

The growth of Melbourne

The changing population centre of

Melbourne

19811986

19911996

20012011 2006

2016

2036

2041

20312026

2021

Marvellous Melbourne reborn?

Victorian population growth trends

How has Victoria’s population grown?

Over 1,100,000 new residents in Victoria in the last decade. Similar number to gain in Victoria between 1971 and 2001

Melbourne has been a magnet for overseas and interstate migrants

Historically Victoria loses population to other states in net terms, although in the last fifteen years it has gained in net terms and has gained from all states in the last few years

Victoria is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas migration gain and births have supplemented the population under 40. Med age 2001 – 34.9, Med age 2016 – 35.9

Births continue to exceed deaths, but less natural increase over time, and more older people

Average annual population growth,Major States, Census periods, 1976-2016

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-16

Aver

age

annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Period

Australia NSWVic. QldSA WA

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

Annual population growth rates, Major States, 2000-2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Year to June 30

AustraliaNSWVicSAQldWA

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

Net overseas migration, Victoria, 1976-2017

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Shar

e of

Aus

tral

ia

Net

ove

rsea

s m

igra

tion

Year ending June 30

Net overseas migration Share of Australia

Net interstate migration, Victoria, 1972-2017

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Net

inte

rsta

te m

igra

tion

Year ending June 30

Fertility rates and number of births Victoria, 1976-2016

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Tota

l Fer

tility

Rat

e

Birt

hs

Year

Births Total Fertility Rate Assumed trend

Ageing of the population

Population change by five year age group, Victoria, 1971-2001

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Pers

ons

Age group

Population change by five year age group, Victoria, 2001-2016

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; .id, SAFi, 2017

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Pers

ons

Age group

Net overseas and interstate migration by age, Victoria, 2011-2016

Source:.id, SAFi, 2017

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Pers

ons

Age group

Overseas

Interstate

Changing housing consumption

Population growth & building approvals, Victoria, 1991-2018*

Source: ABS: Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; ABS: Building Approvals Australia, 2017

* 2017 population based on 9 months of data* Approvals lagged by 12 months

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Num

ber

Year ending June 30

Population change

Building approvals

Average household size,Victoria and Major Regions, 1981-2016

Source: ABS, Census, various; concorded to 31 Melbourne LGAs

2.300

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

2.900

3.000

3.100

Aver

age

hous

ehol

d siz

e

Census Year

Victoria

Metro Melbourne

Regional Vic

Dwelling growth, established versus greenfield, Melbourne, 1991-2041

Source: ABS, Census; .id, SAFi, 2017

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41

Dwel

ling

grow

th

Census period

Infill / major sites

Greenfield / Rural

Three growth markets

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Pers

ons

Age group

Forecast population growth by age, Victoria, 2016-2036

Source: id, SAFi, 2017

Forecast population growth by age, Victoria, 2016-2036, comparing 2015 with 2017 forecasts

Source: id, SAFi, 2017

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Pers

ons

Age group

2017 Forecasts

2015 Forecasts

Comparison of pop growth by age, Victoria, 2016-2036

Source: id, SAFi; ABS, Population Projections, Australia Cat. No. 3222.0 (Series B); Victoria in Future, 2016

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Pers

ons

Age group

SAFi

Vic in Future

ABS

Local and regional changes

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Year ending June 30

Inner City

Middle Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Fringe & Peri-Urban

Forecast population growth by typology area, Victoria, 1991-2041

Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017

historical forecast

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Year ending June 30

Regional Centre - Inland

Regional Centre - Coastal

Coastal

Small town and rural

Forecast population growth by typology area, Victoria, 1991-2041

Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017

historical forecast

Forecast population growth by LGA, Victoria, 2016-2036

Source: id, SAFi, 2017

Murray

Melbourne

See Inset

Whittlesea

Hume

Casey

Wyndham

Melton

Manningham

Cardinia

GreaterGeelong

GreaterBendigo

Mitchell

Baw Baw

GoldenPlains

Ballarat

Wodonga

Largest suburbs in Melbourne, 2016 and 2036

2016

No. Area Population

1 Melbourne 55,584

2 Craigieburn 54,240

3 Reservoir 53,779

4 Point Cook 52,638

5 Berwick 49,822

2036

No. Area Population

1 Tarneit 126,328

2 Melbourne 123,533

3 Craigieburn 81,374

4 Sunbury 80,384

5 Werribee 71,673

Forecast population growth by SA2, Greater Melbourne, 2016-2036

Source: .id SAFi, 2017

The last word

ConclusionsIncreased population growth is having a profound impact on the speed of urban development in Melbourne

The impact of ageing has been offset with huge numbers of younger people entering the population

Development in established Melbourne has increased across the City and we appear to be heading down the Sydney path, but there are policy decisions to be made re: greenfield land

The infrastructure legacy of the 1880s is there to see, let’s hope Marvellous Melbourne reborn can deliver similar benefits

Given the current pace of development, monitoring and responding to change is more important than ever

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