Global Challenges to 2030&

Long-Range Strategic Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean

ForUN ECLAC – CEPAL

Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project

When this begins to

happen, the speed and capacity of AI for AI will

make

far more

change than Moore’s Law

Artificial Intelligence, teaching artificial intelligence to be more intelligent, will be able to teach more intelligently worldwide

Some Global Future ImpactsSome Global Future Impacts• How many researchers, service agents, lawyers and other

professionals will IBM’s Watson replace by 2020, 2030, 2050? • What new capabilities will be created by Google’s artificial brain

and the brain projects of US, EU, and China by 2030?• How many traffic police, and taxi, bus, and truck drivers will

driverless vehicles replace by 2030? • How many call center employees will interactive voice AI systems

replace? • What could the impact of 3D printing and robot manufacturing on

international trade?

Robot Farming replacing how many farmers?

Self-Assembly Robotic AI manufacturingcould build these one day in Patagonia

Vertical Farming, Carbon Sink, Art

New concepts of work and economics needed

• Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems

• Next system too complex to understand to day – but some seeds can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project

• Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet and open source software)

• Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for software” but NO central – human managed or owned corporation (like the internet, but just one piece of AI software is the “company.”

• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

Next Mega Trend: Conscious-TechnologyWhen the distinction between these two trends

becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age

HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT

19852000

20152030

Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time

Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical

Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear

Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible

Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented

Distillation of History and Future Direction

If\then Nano-technology

Synthetic Biology

Internet of Things

3D Printing Conscious-Technology

Augmented Reality

Nano-technology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Internet of Things xxx 3D Printing

xxx Conscious-Technology xxx Augmented Reality xxx

Emerging Technologies Table

15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity

Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

Challenge 3: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and

poor?

Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be

reduced?

Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions

change?

Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass

destruction?

Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and

sophisticated global enterprises?

2013 State of the Future Index

World World Report CardReport Card

Where are We Winning?

Where are We Losing?

World World Report CardReport Card

What is Unclear or not Changing?

World World Report CardReport Card

ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition

The World is in a Race

Between implementing

and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems.

Global Collective Intelligence can help…

Win the Race

Some Implications for Latin America

• Latin America is way too dependent on high commodity prices for its future• It has to re-orient it’s concepts of growth, employment, and economics.• True, it has to improve governance and the rule of law, but without a new vision of future, change is not

likely.• So, how to change the future view from commodities to the next economics?

• Presidential Future Strategy Units (Chilean Council of Prospective and Strategy)

• Produce annual state of the future of the nation report

• State of the Future Index for each country and the LAC region

• National Collective Intelligence System

• Create and maintain national and regional futures situation chart online

• Establish a permanent Committee for the Future in national legislatures

• Need global organized crime strategy – right now, who provides more opportunities to young people government or organized crime?

• Participate in RIBER with former President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic

• Many organizations in the LAC Region

Futuristic Management for LAC

1. Hierarchy

2. Networks

3. Intersection of Networks: Nodes

4. Connecting Nodes into Fields of Play

5. Connecting Fields of Play

Development projects should leap frog as mush as possible

• Pure meat without growing animals• Seawater agriculture – shore line and in water - Youth Corps to plant seagrass• 3-Printing – reduce imports and costs• Synthetic biology – totally new capabilities• Computational science – acceleration and dissemination of knowledge • Tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-nations, tele-everything• Internet of things with universal high speed Internet• Increasing intelligence (individual and national)• Nanotechnology• Retrofitting buildings for energy production• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)

One-Person Businesses

Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing

not non-existing jobs

LAC Public Situation Chart – Like Wiki

Leap-Frog Activities

Current Status Next Steps CommentsSynergies

Sea Water Agriculture

FAO, World Bank,Eritrea (Seawater Forest Initiative), Mexico (Seawater Foundation, Bahia Kino), UAE (UAE University), Australia (Seawater Green House), Oman, others

National Youth Corps to plant seagrass, contact Seawater Greenhouse (UK) Seawater Foundation (US), See investments (in-water and on-beach agriculture)

IDB, China, FAO, USAIS, PAHO for food process plant feasibility study, Youth Corps for production and consumption

Growing meat and leather without animals

Initial demonstration-tions to attract investors

Review Univ. of Maastricht and others research, contact New Harvest, others

Improved protein and iron foods, Meals for Youth Corps, FAO global PR plan, invite business investors

Tele-LAC Nations Brain drain programs filing, alternative: Tele-Jamaica

Create website to match development needs with Caribbean clubs overseas

Integrate all development programs into tele-Caribbean Basin web site

Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.

First 3D Printed Kidney’s but not readyfor transplant as they only live 4 months

UCLA’s Solar Cell Windows

3-D Printed Shoes

Yet, The Future may be slipping through our fingers

Nature does not care…

about what is politically feasible… 450 vs. 350 ppm CO2 equivilant

or Equitable … CO2/capita

Meanwhile the long-term trend of prices are going up

High Food Prices – Long-Term

1. population growth2. rising affluence especially India &

China3. diversion of corn for biofuels4. soil erosion5. aquifer depletion6. the loss of cropland7. falling water tables and water

pollution8. Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil

prices) 9. Market speculation

10. diversion of water from rural to urban11. Increasing meat consumption12. global food reserves at 25-year lows13. climate change

13. Increasing droughts 14. Increasing flooding15. Melting mountain glaciers reducing

water flows16. And eventually saltwater invading crop

lands

Salt Water Agriculture: Saves H2O for Cities, Sequests Carbon, new food, paper products

Growing Pure Meat without Growing Animals

August 5th a London chef cooked and served first public taste test for hamburgers grown from cow’s cells with growing/killing a cow

How to increase Individual Intelligence1. Responding to feedback

2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment

3. Nutrition

4. Reasoning exercises

5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect)

6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations

7. Software systems and gaming

8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)

9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy

10. Low stress, stimulating environments, music, color, fragrances improves performance

Longer term:

1. Reverse engineering the brain (US, EU, and China national programs)

2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering

3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons

1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world

2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ pages of futures research by The Millennium Project

3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining

How to increase national intelligence with national collective intelligence system

Collective Intelligence

• It emerges from the integration and synergies among• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight

• that continually learns from feedback

• to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions

• than these elements acting alone.

An Application of Collective Intelligence:

… May become a TransInstitution

The Millennium Project

50+ Millennium Project Nodes...

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

For further information:

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

202-686-5179

StateoftheFuture.org

themp.orgGlobal Futures Intelligence System

For further information

The Millennium Project4421 Garrison Street, NW,

Washington, D.C. 20016 USA+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

www.StateoftheFuture.orgwww.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)