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Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Transition to a secure and low carbon Swiss energy system Ramachandran Kannan
66th Semi-Annual IEA-ETSAP meeting 17-19 November 2014 Copenhagen, Denmark
• Swiss energy system • Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM) • Scenarios • Results • Conclusions
Outline
Seite 2
Overview of Swiss energy system
Switzerland final energy demand
Seite 3
Overview of Swiss energy system
Seite 4
Challenges Alternatives to the low carbon nuclear energy limited non-hydro renewable resources
Seasonal variation in supply-demand imported electricity for winter
Decarbonisation of heating and transport Imported fossil fuels
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) • Time horizon: 2010 – 2100
• 5-year period length in near term and 10-15 years in long term
• 144 intra-annual time splits (timeslices) • hourly representation of weekdays & weekends
in Summer, Winter and an intermediate season • Five end-use sectors with subsector description
• Six industrial subsectors (chemicals, cement, metal, food,…)
• Four categories of residential heating (existing-, new-, single- and multi-family houses)
• Agriculture, shipping and aviation for calibration (i.e.limited optimization)
• Detailed electricity and energy conversion modules
• Existing and new electricity/heat generation technologies, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.
• Fully calibrated to the BFE’s 2010 energy balance
• Final energy demand, CO2 emission, car stock, power plants,…..
Seite 5
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Fuel production
module
Fuel distribution
module
Demand modulesElectricity generation
module
Resource module
Electricity import
Uranium
Natural gas
Hydrogen
Electricity export
Electricity
Other fuels
Renewable• Solar • Wind• Biomass• Waste
Electricity storage
Hydro resource• Run of rivers• Reservoirs
CO2
Demand technologies
Residential- Boiler - Heat pump- Air conditioner- Appliances
Services
Industires
Hydro plants
Nuclear plants
Natural gas GTCC
Solar PV
Wind
Geothermal
Other
Taxes & Subsidies
Hydrogen fuel cell
Energy demand services
Vehicle kilometre
/ tkm
Lighting
Motors
Space heating
Hot water heating
Oil
TransportCar fleet
ICEHybrid vehicles
PHEV
BEV
Fuel cell
Bus/LGV/HGV
Mac
roec
onom
ic d
river
s (e
.g.,
popu
latio
n, G
DP,
floo
r are
a, v
km)
Inte
rnat
iona
l ene
rgy
pric
es (o
il, n
atur
al g
as, e
lect
ricity
, ...)
Tech
nolo
gy c
hara
cter
izat
ion
(effi
cien
cy, l
ifetim
e, c
osts
,…R
esou
rce
pote
ntia
l (w
ind,
sol
ar, b
iom
ass,
….)
BiofuelsBiogas
Seite 6
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
Renewable availability patten Wind availability factor
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
00 04 08 12 16 20Hours
Summer Fall
Winter Spring
Solar PV availability factor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 5 9 13 17 21
Summer Winter Fall Spring
Availability of hydro plants
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
River hydro Dam hydro
Hydro Wind Solar PV
Seite 7
Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Cost of residential building
conservation measures
Residential heat demand profile
Scenarios
Business as usual scenario • Energy service demands from Swiss Energy Perspective 2050 • International energy (ETP 2014) & electricity (CROSSTEM*) prices • CO2 price as per the Swiss Energy Perspective 2050 • Nuclear phase out and option for new gas power plants • Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply
Low carbon scenario • 60% reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2050 Energy security scenario • Reduce fossil fuel imports by 55% by 2050
*Cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model Seite 8
Results Final energy demand - BAU
• Final energy demand declines about 30% by 2050
• End-use energy efficiency • Fuel substitution/switching • Uptake of building energy
conservation measures • Electricity demand increases
Seite 9
• Space heating declines two-thirds by 2050 building conservation / efficiency of heating technologies.
• Transport fuel demand declines 40% most of the reductions in car
• Electricity demand for air conditioning almost doubles
Results Final energy demand – LC60
• Final energy demand declines about 38% by 2050 Residential – 50%, Transport – 32%, Services – 18%
• Conservations is 50% higher than the BAU scenario
• Direct use of solar energy for heating applications becomes cost effective
Seite 10
• Oil- and gas-based heating systems are fully phased by 2050
• Uptake of costly conservation measures is also important in the early period even though the CO2 target becomes stringent only later assumed to be available only at the time of building renovation.
Results Final energy demand – SEC
• Final energy demand declines about 30% by 2050 Similar to LC60 • Electricity demand in 2050 is 12% lower than the LC60 and BAU scenarios • Continuation of fossil fuels in transport
Seite 11
Results Car fleet
BAU • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars
battery electric vehicles (BEVs) • By 2050, 40% of the car fleet (i.e. two
million cars) are BEV. • Average CO2 emission decline from 208 g-
CO2/km (2010) 144 g-CO2/km (2020) 45 g-CO2/km (2050)
LC60 • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars Plug-in hybrid BEVs
• Car fleet almost decarbonised
Seite 12
SEC • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars Plug-in hybrid
Results Residential energy demand
BAU • Reduction of about 2% per annum • Oil gas electric heat pumps • Cost of gas vs. electric network expansion
Seite 13
Results Electricity supply
BAU • Electricity demand grows at 0.7% per
annum • Nuclear plants are replaced by natural gas
combined cycle plants • 12% of the electricity supply is from
renewable in 2050
LC60 • Renewable electricity 22% (2050) • Higher uptake of CHPs
Seite 14
SEC • Low electrification less gas based
generation
Results W
inte
r wee
kday
s Su
mm
er w
eekd
ays
Marginal cost electricity
Gasoline hybrid car
Pumping
Exports
Demand
BEV charging
Battery electric vehicles
Electricity supply-demand balance - BAU scenario - Weekday
Seite 15
Results W
inte
r wee
kday
s Su
mm
er w
eekd
ays
Plug-in hybrid car
Imports
BEV charging
Battery electric vehicles
Electricity supply-demand balance - LC60 scenario - Weekdays
Seite 16
Results CO2 emissions - BAU
• Direct CO2 emissions from end use sectors reduce Additional CO2 emissions from electricity sector
• Electrification ‘shifts’ some the direct (end use) CO2 emissions to the electricity sector Nevertheless there is net reduction in CO2 emissions
Electricity
Seite 17
Residential
Results CO2 emissions
Seite 18
Results Annual energy system costs in 2050
In the LC60 scenario (additional annual costs wrt. BAU in 2050) • Additional cost CHF 6.81 billion for the LC60 scenario / CHF 4 billion for the SEC scenario • Fuel costs and taxes decline because of reduced consumption of fuels • In the electricity sector about CHF 2 billion because of deployment of capital-intensive renewables • High capital expenditure CHF 8.7 billion, some of this additional expenditure is offset by reductions in fuel
expenditure/taxes
Seite 19
Results Scenario indicators in 2050
Seite 20
Indicators Units 2010 BAU LC60 SEC
Per capita electricity consumption MWh 7.6 8.9 8.8 7.8
Per capita final energy consumption MWh 32 21 20 20
Per capita CO2 emission t-CO2 4.91 2.67 1.38 1.55
Residential electricity use per household MWh 5.3 5.7 5.2 5.6
Cumulative CO2 emissions* (2010–2050) M.t-CO2 43 1559 1294 1348
Average CO2 intensity of car fleet g-CO2/km 208 45 2 61
Electricity intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 109 100 100 88
Final energy intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 456 239 225 229
CO2 intensity* t-CO2 per M.CHF 79 37 23 25
Total energy cost** % of GDP 4.5% 6.5% 7.3% 7.0%
Per capita undiscounted energy costs** CHF2010 3'108 5'732 6'485 6'167
* including international aviation ** The 2010 energy cost does not include investment costs of existing technology stock ^ Based on all end-use sectors, including residential.
Conclusions • Several factors are driving the development of energy demands, including
the electrification of end-use sectors and international energy prices, along with climate and energy security policy
• Final energy demand declines 0.35–0.88% per annum under the set of business as usual (BAU) scenarios and 1.1–1.2% per annum in the low carbon and security scenarios
• In the BAU scenario CO2 emissions are reduced by 30%, and additional abatement is required to realise a 60% emission reduction. Total CO2 emissions are reduced by 54% in the SEC scenario,
• Centralized gas generation produces additional CO2 emissions across the scenarios. However, the electricity from these plants can substitute direct use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors (e.g., heating and transport), resulting in a net reduction in emissions
• The additional cost of achieving a 1.4 t-CO2 per capita is CHF 750–950 per person in 2050
R. Kannan, H. Turton, 2014, Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) for transition scenario analyses, Final report to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. http://www.psi.ch/eem/stem
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