Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1 Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004-2008 [HR.CTD001.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/4/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Nov. 4

2

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

FWL vs. FWA vs. Mobile ....................................................................................................... 4

Wireline vs. Wireless ............................................................................................................. 6

Fixed vs. Mobile ..................................................................................................................... 8

Growth ................................................................................................................................. 10

Teledensity ........................................................................................................................... 16

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 18



Nov. 4

3

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 Telecom Subscribers – FWL, FWA & Mobile (2004-2008) ................................... 4 Figure 2 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type (2004-2008) ................................ 5 Figure 3 Market Share of Telecom Subscribers by Type at 2008E .................................... 5 Figure 4 Telecom Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) ..................................... 6 Figure 5 Portion of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................ 7 Figure 6 Market Share of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) ....................... 7 Figure 7 Telecom Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) ............................................. 8 Figure 8 Portion of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2008) ........................................................... 9 Figure 9 Market Share of Subscribers – Mobile & Fixed (2004-2008) ............................... 9 Figure 10 Growth of Telecom Subscribers – All (2004-2008) ............................................ 10 Figure 11 Growth of Wireless Subscribers (2004-2008) .................................................... 11 Figure 12 Growth of FWL Subscribers (2004-2008) .......................................................... 12 Figure 13 Growth of Fixed Subscribers (2004-2008) ......................................................... 13 Figure 14 Growth of Mobile Subscribers (2004-2009) ....................................................... 14 Figure 15 Growth of FWA Subscribers (2004-2008) .......................................................... 15 Figure 16 Growth of FWA Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ................................................... 15 Figure 17 Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ...................................................................... 16 Figure 18 Wireless Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ....................................................... 16 Figure 19 Mobile / Cellular Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) .......................................... 17 Figure 20 Fixed Telecom Teledensity (2004-2008) ............................................................ 17

Table 1 Number of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) ......................................................... 4 Table 2 Percentage of Telecom Subscribers (2004-2008) .................................................... 4 Table 3 Number of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) .................................. 6 Table 4 Percentage of Subscribers – Wireline & Wireless (2004-2008) .............................. 6 Table 5 Number of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) .......................................... 8 Table 6 Percentage of Subscribers – Fixed & Mobile (2004-2008) ...................................... 8

Figure Table 1 Growth of Subscribers – All (AGR & CAGR) ............................................ 10 Figure Table 2 Growth of Wireless Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ..................................... 11 Figure Table 3 Growth of FWL Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ........................................... 12 Figure Table 4 Growth of Fixed Subscribers – AGR & CAGR .......................................... 13 Figure Table 5 Growth of Mobile Subscribers – AGR & CAGR ........................................ 14

No

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F

PSTN/FWFWA Mobile

PSTN/FWFWA Mobile

1

1

1

1

wos.Resear/www.ligar

Figure 1 T

2WL

3

Tab

WL

Table

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

Telecom S

2004E 8,582,228 1,684,113

30,250,415

le 1 Num

2004E 21.2 4.2 74.7

e 2 Percen

0

0

0

0

0

PSTN/

m/harewos

FW

Subscribe

2005E8,710,34,819,6

46,587,3

mber of Te

2005E14.5 8.0 77.5

ntage of T

/FWL

All O

L vs.

ers – FWL

20385 8629 6371 63

elecom Su

201

8

Telecom S

FWA

Opera

Telec

. FWA

L, FWA &

006E 8,738,3436,102,1373,803,108

ubscriber

006E 11.1 7.8 81.1

Subscrib

Mo

ators

com Custom

A vs.

& Mobile (

2007E 8,717,7

10,811,493,387,0

rs (2004-2

2007E 7.7 9.6 82.7

ers (2004

obile

mer Bases –

. Mob

(2004-200

20760 8479 21019 140

2008)

20518

4-2008)

– Part 1

4

bile

8)

008E 8,674,228,124,057

0,548,229

008E 5.1 12.4 82.5

2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E

No

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Fig

F

Mar

ket P

erce

ntag

e


gure 2 Ma

igure 3 M

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2

Mar

ket P

erce

ntag

e

rch rvirtual.com

arket Sha

Market Sh

2004E 2

Tele

m/harewos

are of Tel

hare of Te

2005E 2

All O

Mobile83%

ecom M

lecom Sub

elecom Su

006E 20

Opera

PSTN/F5%

Marke2008E

Telec

bscribers

ubscribe

007E 20

ators

FWL%

FWA12%

et by TE

com Custom

s by Type

rs by Typ

008E

Type

mer Bases –

e (2004-20

pe at 2008

PSTN/FWFWAMobile

– Part 1

5

008)

8E

WL

No

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F

WirelineWireless

Ta

WirelessWireline

Tab

1

1

1

1

1


Figure 4 T

2e s 3

able 3 Nu

2s e

ble 4 Perc

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

Telecom S

2004E 8,582,228

31,934,528

umber of

2004E 78.8 21.2

centage o

0

0

0

0

0

0

W

m/harewos

W

Subscribe

2005E8,710,3

51,407,0

Subscrib

2005E85.5 14.5

of Subscr

Wireline

All O

Wire

ers – Wir

20385 8000 69

bers – Wir

2081

ibers – W

Opera

Telec

eline

eline & W

006E 8,738,3439,905,245

reline & W

006E 88.9 11.1

Wireline &

Wireless

ators

com Custom

vs. W

Wireless (

2007E 8,717,7

104,198,4

Wireless (

2007E 92.3 7.7

& Wireles

mer Bases –

Wirel

(2004-2008

20760 8498 161

(2004-200

2095

s (2004-20

– Part 1

6

less

8)

008E 8,674,228,672,286

08)

008E 94.9 5.1

008)

2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E

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Figur


Figu

re 6 Mark

78.

2004

rch rvirtual.com

ure 5 Port

ket Share

.8

4E 2

W

TeW

m/harewos

tion of W

e of Subsc

85.5

2005E

Wireles

W

lecomWirelin

Wireless Su

cribers –

88.9

2006E

ss Port

Wir9

Wireline5%

m Markne vs. W

Telec

ubscriber

Wireline

92.3

2007E

tion (%

reless95%

ket 200Wirele

com Custom

rs (2004-2

e & Wirele

3 9

E 20

%)

08Ess

mer Bases –

2008)

ess (2004-

94.9

008E

– Part 1

7

-2008)

No

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Fixed Mobile

Fixed Mobile

T

1

1

1

1


Figure 7

213

Table 5 N

2

Table 6 Pe

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

7 Telecom

2004E 10,266,341 30,250,415

Number o

2004E 25.3 74.7

ercentage

0

0

0

0

0

m/harewos

m Subscr

2005E13,530,046,587,3

of Subscr

2005E22.5 77.5

e of Subs

Fixed

All O

F

ribers – F

20014 14371 63

ribers – F

2018

scribers –

Opera

Telec

Fixe

ixed & M

006E 4,840,4803,803,108

Fixed & M

006E 18.9 81.1

– Fixed &

Mobile

ators

com Custom

d vs.

Mobile (20

2007E 19,529,293,387,0

Mobile (20

2007E 17.3 82.7

Mobile (

mer Bases –

. Mob

04-2008)

20239 29019 140

004-2008)

2018

2004-2008

– Part 1

8

bile

008E 9,798,2850,548,229

008E 17.5 82.5

8)

2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E

No

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Fig


Fig

gure 9 Ma

74.

2004

rch rvirtual.com

ure 8 Por

arket Sha

.7

4E 2

M

Te

m/harewos

rtion of M

are of Sub

77.5

2005E

Mobile

Mobile83%

lecomMobi

Mobile Su

bscribers

81.1

2006E

e Porti

m Markle vs. F

Telec

ubscriber

s – Mobile

82.7

2007E

ion (%

Fixed17%

ket 200Fixed

com Custom

rs (2004-2

e & Fixed

7 8

E 20

%)

08E

mer Bases –

008)

d (2004-20

82.5

008E

– Part 1

9

008)

No

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ov. 4


Figure

Figure

AGCA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

10 Growt

Table 1 G

50,000,00

100,000,00

150,000,00

200,000,00

T

20GR 4AGR 4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Telec

m/harewos

th of Tele

Growth o

0

00

00

00

0

2004

TelecomG

0058.28.2

com Su

ecom Sub

f Subscri

2005 200

m SubGrowth

43%

200630.739.2

ubscrib

Telec

bscribers

ibers – Al

06 2007

bscribeh

%

200743.540.6

ber Gr

com Custom

G

– All (200

ll (AGR &

2008

er

254

rowth

mer Bases –

Grow

04-2008)

& CAGR)

200850.943.1

– Part 1

10

wth

No

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F


Figu

Figure Ta

AGCA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

re 11 Gro

able 2 Gro

50,000,00

100,000,00

150,000,00

200,000,00

W

20GR 6AGR 6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Wirel

m/harewos

owth of W

owth of W

0

00

00

00

0

2004

WirelesG

0051.01.0

less Su

Wireless S

Wireless S

2005 200

ss SubGrowth

50%

200636.048.0

ubscrib

Telec

Subscribe

Subscribe

06 2007

bscribeh

%

200749.148.3

ber Gr

com Custom

ers (2004-

ers – AGR

2008

er

255

rowth

mer Bases –

-2008)

R & CAGR

200855.250.0

– Part 1

11

R

No

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Fig

Figure T

AGCA

-1

-0

0

0

1

1

2

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure 12 G

Table 3 G

8,500,000

8,550,000

8,600,000

8,650,000

8,700,000

8,750,000

FW

20GR 1AGR 1

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

FW

m/harewos

Growth of

Growth of

2004 2

WL Sub

0051.51.5

WL Sub

f FWL Sub

f FWL Su

2005 2006

scribe

20060.30.9

scribe

Telec

bscribers

ubscriber

6 2007

er Gro

2007-0.20.5

er Gro

com Custom

s (2004-20

rs – AGR &

2008

wth

0.3%

2

wth

mer Bases –

008)

& CAGR

2008-0.50.3

– Part 1

12

No

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ov. 4


Fig

Figure T

AGCA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure 13 Gr

Table 4 G

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Fixe

20GR 3AGR 3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Fixe

m/harewos

rowth of

Growth of

0

0

0

0

2004

ed Sub

0051.81.8

ed Sub

Fixed Su

f Fixed Su

2005 200

bscribe

31%

20069.720.2

bscribe

Telec

ubscriber

ubscriber

6 2007

er Gro

200731.623.9

er Gro

com Custom

rs (2004-20

rs – AGR

2008

owth

253

owth

mer Bases –

008)

& CAGR

200852.630.5

– Part 1

13

No

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Figu

Figure T

AGCA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure 14 Gr

Table 5 Gr

20,000,0040,000,0060,000,0080,000,00

100,000,00120,000,000140,000,000160,000,000

Mob

20GR 5AGR 5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Mob

m/harewos

rowth of M

rowth of

000000000000

2004

ile Sub

0054.04.0

ile Sub

Mobile Su

Mobile S

2005 200

bscrib

47%

200637.045.2

bscrib

Telec

ubscriber

ubscribe

06 2007

ber Gro

%

200746.445.6

ber Gro

com Custom

rs (2004-2

ers – AGR

2008

owth

254

owth

mer Bases –

2009)

R & CAGR

200850.546.8

– Part 1

14

R

No

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ov. 4


Fig

Figur

AGCA

020406080

100120140160180200

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure 15 G

re 16 Gro

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

FWA

20GR 18AGR 18

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

FWA

m/harewos

Growth of

owth of FW

0

0

0

0

2004

WA Sub

00586.286.2

A Sub

f FWA Sub

WA Subs

2005 200

bscribe

88%

200626.690.4

scribe

Telec

bscribers

cribers –

6 2007

er Gro

%

200777.285.9

er Gro

com Custom

s (2004-20

– AGR & C

2008

wth

298

wth

mer Bases –

008)

CAGR

200895.488.2

– Part 1

15

No

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ov. 4


Figu

18.7

200

14.7

200

rch rvirtual.com

Figure 1

ure 18 Wi

72%2

04E

T(M

76%2

04E

W

m/harewos

17 Teleco

ireless Te

27.34%

2005E

elecomMobile

23.38%

2005E

Wireles

om Telede

elecom Te

35.31%

2006E

m Telee+FWA

31.38%

2006E

ss Tele

Telec

ensity (20

eledensit

50.04%

2007E

edensitA+FWL

46.18%

2007E

edensit

com Custom

Tele

004-2008)

ty (2004-2

%

74.

E 200

tyL)

%

70.

E 200

ty

mer Bases –

edens

2008)

54%

08E

75%

08E

– Part 1

16

sity

No

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ov. 4


Figure 1

Fig

13.9

200

3.9

0.7

200

rch rvirtual.com

19 Mobile

gure 20 F

98%2

04E

Mobil

97%

78%

04E

F

m/harewos

e / Cellula

Fixed Tele

21.19%

2005E

le / Cel

3.96%

2.19%

2005E

Fixed PST

ar Teleco

ecom Tel

28.64%

2006E

llular

3.92%

2.7

2006E

TeledTN/FWL

Telec

m Telede

ledensity

41.39%

2007E

Telede

3.86%4%

4.79%

2007E

densityFWA

com Custom

ensity (20

(2004-20

%

61.

E 200

ensity

%

3.8

E 200

y

mer Bases –

004-2008)

08)

50%

08E

y

80%

9.24%

08E

– Part 1

17



Nov. 4

18

Abbreviations & Notes

AGR Annual Growth Rate

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

2008E At the end of year 2008

FWA Fixed Wireless Access (Limited Mobile Service)

FWL Fixed Wire-Line (PSTN – Public Switched Telephone Network)

Data & Analytics

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 1