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1
President Trump’s “Border
Wall” Cost Dispute Analysis
March 2017
Homeland Security Research Corp. –
your strategic partner for expert insights
into business opportunities in Homeland
Security and Public Safety
Report Table of Contents
2
1 Executive Summary 52 The U.S.-Mexico Border Wall Cost Calculation 8
2.1 Facts & Figures 82.2 Assumptions 92.3 U.S.-Mexico Border Wall Cost Estimation 11
2.3.1 Option A 112.3.2 Option B 132.3.3 Option C 152.3.4 Option D 172.3.5 Options Cost* Comparison 18
3 Appendix A: President Trump's Executive Order on Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvement 19
4 Appendix B: Trump’s Mexico Wall Project Geopolitical Analysis 255 Appendix C: 2005-2016 Southern Border Security Issues 296 Disclaimer & Copyright 35
Report List of Tables
3
Table 1 - Border Security Elements [$K] Cost per Kilometer 10
Table 2 - Option A: Multilayered Security 3140 km 40 ft Wall Cost 11
Table 3 - Option B: Multilayered-Security 640 km 40 ft Wall + 800 km Fence + 160 km
Rough-Terrain Fence Cost 13
Table 4 - Option C: Multilayered Security 640 km 20 ft Wall + 800 km Fence + 160 km
Rough-Terrain Fence Cost 15
Table 5 - Option D: Multilayered-Security 40 km 40 ft Wall + 1400 km Fence + 160 km
Rough-Terrain Fence Cost 17
Report List of Figures
4
Figure 1 - U.S.-Mexico Border Fences and Other Structures - January 2017 5
Figure 2 - Cost* of 4 Southern Borders - HSRC’s Design Alternatives 6
Figure 3 - Breakdown [%] of Option A by Engineering Elements 12
Figure 4 - Breakdown [%] of Option B by Engineering Elements 14
Figure 5 - Breakdown [%] of Option C by Engineering Elements 16
Figure 6 - Breakdown [%] of Option D by Engineering Elements 18
Figure 7 - Multilayered Electronic Security Wall Cost* [$M] Options 18
Figure 8 - One in Four U.S. Foreign-Born Immigrants are Unauthorized 25
Figure 9 - U.S.-Mexico Border – January 2017 Status 27
Figure 10 - Pedestrian Fence 30
Figure 11 - Vehicle Fence 30
President Trump’s “Border Wall” Cost Dispute Analysis
The purpose of this analysis is to make the public aware of the conflicting cost estimates, by using the expertise of Homeland Security Research Corp. (HSRC) engineers gained from past border wall-fence consulting projects.
➢ A careful analysis of the Executive Order Section 3 Clause (e) definition of a “Wall” reveals that it allows the use of any “similarly secure, contiguous, and impassable physical barrier,” which would cost about 10% of the value of a concrete wall.
➢ The Executive Order wording allows the administration to limit the length of the new wall-barrier to 1,610 km. Furthermore, the order does not specify the electronic sensors and other security infrastructure to be installed along the new “wall.”
As the cost of the Wall “is in the details” (e.g., design specifications), HSRC engineers analyzed 4 wall-barrier design alternatives, ranging between:
➢ A maximum-cost concrete wall with multilayered security, 3,145km-long and 40ft-high, from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico, at a cost of $34.2 billion*.
➢ A minimum cost “photo op wall”: a multilayered electronic security barrier, consisting of a 40km-long and 40ft-high concrete wall, as well as a 1,560km-long and 24ft-high fence, at a total cost of $6.2 billion.
5
U.S.-Mexico Border Fences & Other Structures (as of Jan. 2017)
U.S. – Mexico Border Wall Cost Estimation
Demonstrates our cost estimate for a multilayered-security, 3,145km-long 40ft-high wall constructed from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico. The cost of option A is $34.2 billion.
6
Option A
Demonstrates our cost estimate for a multilayered-security, 640km-long, 40ft-high wall + 800km-long fence + 160km-long rough terrain fence. The cost of option B is $10.6 billion*.
Option B
Demonstrates our cost estimate for a multilayered electronic security barrier consisting of a 640km-long and 20ft-high wall + 800km-long smart fence + 160km-long rough terrain smart fence. The cost of option C is $9.3 billion*.
Option C
Demonstrates our cost estimate for a multilayered electronic security barrier consisting of a 40km-long, 40ft-high wall + 1400 km fence + 160 km rough-terrain fence. The cost of option D is $6.2 billion*.
Option D
➢ As long as no design details are set by the administration, any cost* estimate from $40 billion to less than $8 billion can be considered as valid
➢ The Trump administration can construct an effective southern border “photo op wall” at a cost* of $10 billion, as long as the physical concrete wall length is less than 200 km long
➢ No “wall technology” in sight can stop sophisticated contraband smugglers
Cost* of 4 Southern Borders – HSRC’s Design Alternatives (B$)
7(*) The cost does not include expenses related to new roadways, compensation to private landowners, and new power lines.
The full free 35-page in-depth report analyzing four border wall construction options, along
with extensive technical and financial specifications, can be found at:
http://homelandsecurityresearch.com/president-trumps-proposed-
border-wall-cost-dispute-analysis
2017©All Rights Reserved
9
HSRC supports Homeland Security & Public Safety communities in
strategic decision-making
with up-to-date premium sources, analysis and insights
Supporting Strategic Decision Making
10
Market Analysis• Market Size• Forecast and Trends• Drivers and Inhibitors
Marketing & Sales▪ Decision makers profiles▪ RFIs / RFPs / contract notice▪ Market price index
Country Analysis▪ Regulation▪ Main players▪ Opportunities
Technology Analysis▪ Forecast▪ Best practices▪ Benchmark
Company Analysis▪ Competitors▪ Customers▪ Partners
11
Why HSRC
A multidisciplinary team of Homeland Security
and Public Safety industry experts with 30+
years of experience in product innovations,
technology and market analysis, R&D,
commercialization, counter-terror & counter-
crime field operations and consulting across the
HLS & Public Safety industry.
HSRC earned the reputation as the
industry’s Gold Standard for Homeland
Security and Public Safety market
reports. We provide our customers in
depth analysis and insights which can
quickly and easily be transformed into
actionable business opportunities.
Our customers include major Homeland Security and Public Safety Government agencies in leading countries as well as over 950 global private sector clients (72% repeat customers) including major defense and security vendors and Fortune 2000 companies.
Multidisciplinary Team
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We handle a wide scope of languages
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HSRC publishes premium reports about the industry, markets and available emerging technologies:
• By Geography
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Premium Market Reports
12
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13
HSRC provides custom-made reports in the Homeland Security, Public Safety and
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supporting your operations throughout the entire business cycle
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Homeland Security Research Corporation
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2017©All Rights Reserved