Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning 101Poya Manouchehri@PoyaManouchehri

NEUROMINE

WHAT IS PREDICTION?

WHAT IS LEARNING?

• CONNECTING THE DOTS (INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION)

• NOT EXACT• PROCESS• EXPERIMENTATION / TRIAL AND ERROR

WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE?

• LEARNING• REASONING• INSTINCT• HIGHER NATURE

MACHINE LOGIC VS LEARNING

IF TEMPERATURE IS LOWAND IT IS OVERCASTAND IT RAINED YESTERDAYTHEN IT WILL RAIN TODAY

TYPES OF PROBLEMS

REGRESSION AND CLASSIFICATION

ModelIndependent Variable

Dependent Variable

CLUSTERING

MACHINE LEARNING PROCESS

Data(Independent and

Dependant Variables)

Training Model

DECISION TREES

INPUT:• EYES EXIST• NUMBER OF LEGS• FURRINESSOUTPUT:• CAT, PERSON, CHAIR, OTHER

DECISION TREES

SAMPLE DATA:• YES, 4, FURRY CAT• YES, 2, NOT FURRY PERSON• NO, 2, NOT FURRY OTHER• …

4<4 >4

Number of Legs

Other

Furry Not Furry

Cat

Furriness

Chair

Yes

Eyes Exist

No

OtherPerso

n

NEURAL NETWORKS

Neuron

Synapse

Neuron

Neuron

Synapse

NEURAL NETWORKS

Actual

NEURAL NETWORKS – FEATURE DETECTORS

NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR

Input 1 Input 2 Output0 0 00 1 11 0 11 1 0

NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

XOR

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

CHALLENGES – GOOD DATA

• NOT ENOUGH DATA• UNREPRESENTATIVE DATA• NO REAL RELATIONSHIPS IN DATA

CHALLENGES – GENERALISATION

Output

Input

CHALLENGES – LOCAL MINIMA

Error

APPLICATIONS – IMAGE / VOICE RECOGNITION

APPLICATIONS – HEALTH

• DIAGNOSIS (E.G. CANCER)• PATIENT RE-ADMISSION

APPLICATIONS – PERSONALIZATION

• TARGETED MARKETING• RECOMMENDATION• CHURN ANALYSIS• LEAD SCORING

APPLICATIONS – FINANCE

• PAYMENT FRAUD DETECTION• STOCK PRICE PREDICTION• INVENTORY MANAGEMENT• SALES PREDICTION

APPLICATIONS – ANOMALY DETECTION

• DETECTING FAULTY HARDWARE (IN SERVER FARM)• INTRUDER ALERT• SPAM FILTERS

SOFTWARE AND SERVICESOPEN-SOURCE• R PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE• WEKA• ORANGE

COMMERCIAL• MATHEMATICA• MATLAB• SQL SERVER ANALYSIS SERVICES (SSAS)

SOFTWARE AND SERVICESSERVICES• GOOGLE PREDICTION API• AZURE ML• NEUROMINE• BIGML• WISE.IO• ALGORITHMS.IO• INFER.COM...

RESOURCESCOURSERA:• GEOFFREY HINTON - NEURAL NETWORKS FOR MACHINE

LEARNING

DATA SOURCES:• UCI MACHINE LEARNING REPOSITORY• AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

QUESTIONS