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Presentation at the Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference, Sheffield 2014. Communication of Statistical Ideas Stream
Citation preview
Five Steps for Analytical Insight
Paul Askew
CONFERENCESEPTEMBER 2014
SHEFFIELD
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents
A. Context
B. Five Steps
C. Key Message
The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself.
Winston Churchill
Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as
the ability to read and write. HG Wells
You cannot ask us to take sides against arithmetic. Winston Churchill
The War Office kept three sets of figures: one to mislead the public,
another to mislead the Cabinet, and a third to mislead itself.
Herbert Asquith
It is by the art of Statistics that law in the social sphere can be ascertained and codified, and certain aspects of the
character of God thereby revealed. The study of statistics is thus a religious service.
Florence Nightingale Smoking is one of the
leading causes of statistics. Fletcher Knebel
If you want to inspire confidence, give plenty of statistics. It does not matter that
they should be accurate, or even intelligible, as long as there is enough of
them. Lewis Carroll
A small error at the outset can lead to great errors in the final conclusions.
Saint Thomas Aquinas
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.
Mark Twain
Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all.
Charles Babbage
Skills for Life Survey 2011 (England)Department for Business Innovation and Skills
% A
dults
at G
CS
E+
Lev
els
The numeracy challenge is big and getting bigger…
7.5m adults with
GCSE+
17m
adults at primary school
level Maths
A Framework for Understanding Statistical Performance
Paul Askew
Policy Gap
Aging Population 2x [36%, actually 16% 65+]
Immigration 2x [31%, actually 13% immigrant]
Religion 5x [24%, actually 5% muslim]
Teenage Pregnancy 25x [15%, actually 0.6% under
15 girls annually]
Benefit Fraud 34x [£24/£100, actually
70p/£100]
RSS & Ipsos Mori
Clustering Illusion
Confirmation Bias
Hindsight Bias
Overconfidence EffectIllusion of
Control
Incentive Super Response Tendency
Endowment Effect
Scarcity Error
Loss Aversion
Cognitive Dissonance
Hyperbolic discounting
The Art of Thinking Clearly, Dobelli
Conjunction Fallacy
Forecast Illusion
Fundamental Attribution Error
Contrast EffectAvailability Bias
Outcome Bias
Operational Delivery
Methodological Leadership
✗ Yes but it’s up compared the same
month last year
✗ Yes but its up for the calendar year so far
✗ Yes but they are reducing faster than
we are this year
✓ Burglary is down compared to last month
✓ Yes but it’s down overall for the financial year to date
✓ Yes but we’re still better than our
neighbours
✓ “Yes but we’re still on target”
Performance Pantomime
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents
A. Context
B. Five Steps
C. Key Message
B. Five Steps
1. Snapshot
2. Trend
3. Benchmark
4. Trajectory
5. Target
1. Snapshot
5. Define
6. Specify
8. Record
7. Collect
9. Enter
10.Process
12. Store
11. Validate
Plan
Implement
Manage
1. Purpose
2. Require-
ments
4. Design
3. Const-raints
Aggregated Data or Real Data
Highs and lowsHigh and low
DecreasingIncreasing Increasing convergence
Decreasing convergence
Three month step Six month stepTwo month step
Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average
Aggregated Data
Example Real Data
Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).
This aggregated (averaged) data is derived from any of these underlying raw data
examples.
2. Five Steps
1. Snapshot 2. Trend 3. Benchmark 4. Trajectory 5. Target
Purpose Week National Future Estimate
Requirements Month Regional Intervention
Constraints Quarter Neighbours Impact
Design Six Months Similar
Define Annual Specific
Specify FYTD
Collect
Record
Enter
Process
Validate
Storage
Value
Time
1. Snapshot – we have a number which is important to us
Value
Time
2. Trend – what’s happening over time (s)
Value
Time
3. Benchmark – how this measure compares to others
Value
Time
3. Benchmark-Trend - comparison to others over time
Value
Time
4. Trajectory - the future for our measure
Value
Time
4. Trajectory Benchmark - comparison to others
Value
Time
5. Target Consideration
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents
A. Context
B. Five Steps
C. Key Message
C. Key Message
Framework
Multidimensional
measures - times - comparisons
C. Key Message
42
Five Steps for Analytical Insight
Thank you
CONFERENCESEPTEMBER 2014
SHEFFIELD