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Case studies The following slides provide examples of case studies where Pro Bono O.R. has been applied.

Operational Research case studies

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Pro bono O.R. case studies carried out by volunteer analysts on behalf of The OR Society.

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Page 1: Operational Research case studies

Case studies

The following slides provide examples of case studies where Pro Bono O.R. has been applied.

Page 2: Operational Research case studies

Improving performance by redesigning shiftsThe client: Crimestoppers: the charity which helps solve crime through members of the public providing information anonymously.

The client’s problem: How to take on new business and improve performance without a big increase in staffing costs

The solution•A simulation model of the call centre using PRISM software, used to try out different staffing patterns

•Thorough data analysis to understand variation in demand

•Recommended staffing levels for different demands

The benefits•Better performance without increasing cost, through new shift patterns

•Ability to continue to improve, and to adapt to changing circumstances, into the future

The approachTwo OR Society volunteers specified data requirements and analysed data on demand for Crimestoppers services both via phone calls and online forms. They summarised arrival patterns by time of day, day of week, and time of year.

They built a simulation model of the call centre, using PRISM software, based on three separate staff groups: call handlers, online staff and shift leaders. The model allowed phone calls to be diverted from call handlers to other staff at busy times.

They validated the model using actual data on arrivals and staffing for a specific week and then used it to explore the impact on KPIs of different proposed staffing patterns.They produced a report recommending new shift patterns which improved performance without any increase in staffing costs.

We’ve benefited hugely from your work and support in all areas of the project. And from an organisational perspective you’ve enabled us to take a highly professional approach to increasing the efficiency of our charity (Performance Manager)

Page 3: Operational Research case studies

Improving processes, increasing impactThe client:

Reach: an organisation matching skilled volunteers to charities that need them

The client’s problem: to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of matching processes, free up resource, develop more value adding activities

The solution•Identified short term efficiency improvements

•Recommended additional value adding activities

•Identified ways of measuring impact

•Recommended a roadmap for moving to a new service delivery model

The benefits•A new perspective on current processes, helping develop, challenge and validate internal thinking•Skilled staff could be freed up to deliver more value, through early implementation of one process improvement, and planning for more•Reach services can be better targeted and marketed, through improved impact measurement

The approachTwo OR Society volunteers spent a day interviewing staff and facilitating focus groups with teams of matching staff and IT support. They work shadowed one of the ‘matchers’ and the Foundation Services Co-ordinator, and discussed potential measures of impact with the Research and Business Analysis Manager. They examined available documentation, collated and distilled the information, and discussed issues identified with a process improvement expert.

They produced a report with clear recommendations for process improvements and potential value adding activities that could be developed with the released resource. These recommendations were phased into short, medium and long term.

“Consultants approached the issues from a holistic point of view and homed in on key issues. Very thorough and professional. Some very useful new ideas which we will explore.” (Director of Services)

Page 4: Operational Research case studies

Managing risk, ensuring sustainabilityThe client:

a community youth ventureThe client’s problem: to ensure sustainability; management needed a risk management plan which had the involvement and backing of trustees.

The solution•define and prioritise the key factors necessary to sustainability of the venture•identify key risks to its continuation•assign mitigating actions to specific individuals to ensure risk reduction•provide an Excel spreadsheet for the organisation to take over the process

The benefits•trustees were fully involved in risk identification, enabling them to play their proper part in risk management and oversight •risks were reduced through sensible and proportionate mitigation •the venture’s ability to remain in business was significantly improved

The approachBlue Link Consulting started by eliciting individual board members' initial thoughts and combining these into an 'influence diagram‘. This gave them a visual and intuitive display of the connections and interplay between all aspects of a complex environment. We then provided expert facilitation to enable them to reach a jointly-owned and robust view of the key risks, consequences and mitigation.

By grouping the risks into three main areas - factors affecting the wood itself; personnel issues; finance issues – we made it easier to assess the risks, and plan for their mitigation. Finally, we converted this into an Excel spreadsheet showing risks, level, impact, and actions assigned to mitigate them, so that the organisation itself could take over the process going forward.

This work was very beneficial .. (Chair of Board)Risk management is now coming from the top down.. (Chief Executive)

Page 5: Operational Research case studies

The client: a small new community-based charity aspiring to develop supported housing

The client’s problem: the group, mostly of carers, wanted to act to address the local shortage of housing options for adults with learning disabilities, and needed some research to help decide how to proceed

The solution• enable group to understand the challenges it faces, and their scale• provide a stock of research material that it can use in a variety of contexts• support lead trustee to build her experience of discussions with council and grant or loan providers, and facilitate group in taking decision on timing of further work

The benefits• the group has a better chance of longer term effectiveness, because it is better able to formulate strategy with confidence, and to plan how to deal with the current uncertain environment• the group is armed with information to support fundraising, awareness-raising and future service delivery, giving it capacity to be more influential, as well as more effective• the group is better able to negotiate effectively with important partners• all of these factors mean that the group is more attractive to funders and commissioners and more likely to be able to achieve its goals

The approachAt the start, the group knew that it needed to know a lot more about a lot of things, but couldn’t easily prioritise this. The analyst began by taking an incremental approach using presentations and initial papers to board meetings aimed at helping the group to identify and clarify what it already knew and what it needed to know. This developed into a gradually evolving set of papers and reports which could form the group’s evidence base. By providing hands-on support, after the initial work, to the lead trustee in developing a financial plan and business case, and in approaches to possible funders and the local council, the group was helped to develop its capacity at making use of the research material in practice, and to identify its further information needs.

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Getting started: what to do first in a complex world

0.5%

1%

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Residential care within area

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Family or own home: receiving 'Community Care'

Family or own home: not receiving support or care services, with learning disabilities sufficiently severe to be identifiable by DoH 2003/4 survey

Others in family or own home: mostly with mild learning disabilities

Types of accommodation where adults with learning disabilities are living: Lambeth and England overall compared

% of all adults

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Where the residential care homes are in Lambeth

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Competitor ECompetitor DCompetitor CCompetitor BCompetitor A

Competitor analysis: Unit cost comparisons - total cost excluding loan interest and repayments) per resident

(Note: Width of bands indicate uncertainty in estimates from incompleteness of available information)

We now have a stock of valuable research material which we can put to a variety of uses (Lead trustee)

Page 6: Operational Research case studies

The client: a housing-related charity running community development projects

The client’s problem: the charity wanted to improve its exploitation of externally available statistical data and other information in its work

The solution• provide a reference document and guidance on the range of possibilities, with illustrations• provide specific step-by-step guidance on exploiting a particular information source that should be of frequent value• work with individual staff to make and demonstrate practical contributions to current projects• provide 2 in-depth seminars on specific complex subjects, to illustrate some more extensive uses of data

The benefits• the organisation has greater capacity to exploit external statistics and other information in the different aspects of its work, eg overall planning and prioritisation, fundraising, project management and evaluation, and so to improve its effectiveness

• some existing projects have already improved their planning, fundraising and evaluation, improving the organisation’s impact and reputation

• staff and partners have improved knowledge about some relevant complex issues, improving their personal credibility and authority and leading to greater effectiveness and influence for the organisation as a whole

The approachThe analyst began with a scoping study of the organisation’s work programmes, past and present, to propose options for how the work should proceed. After discussions with the senior managers, a two-pronged approach was chosen. This involved: firstly, producing detailed research, reference material and guidance on the different types and sources of information available which could be useful to the different stages of the organisation’s work (from high-level planning and fundraising, to project planning, operation and evaluation); and secondly making practical contributions during the course of the project, both to make useful real-time contributions to existing projects and to demonstrate possibilities. The latter included in-depth seminars on 2 complex subjects to all the organisation’s staff, and specific analytical contributions to a few current projects working with individual staff.

External data: making it work for you

Percentage of a Local Authority's neighbourhoods which are in the 1%, 10%, 20% and 30% most multiply deprived in England: London LAs

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Page 7: Operational Research case studies

Improving performance managementThe client:

A media sector charity supporting freelance newsgatherers worldwide

The client’s problem: In a small organisation where everyone has to be flexible about their roles it’s easy to get bogged down in daily operations and not devote enough time to strategy and growth.

The solution•A review of business processes and analysis of how everyone in the team was spending their time

•A re-design of roles and responsibilities to enable the Director to focus her time on Fund-raising and Strategy

•Implementation of a CRM system with performance metrics and reporting

The benefits•By understanding where everyone spent their time, it became clear that the Director was over-loaded with operational matters that could be better dealt with by other team members•Freeing-up the Director’s time and re-structuring everyone’s roles and responsibilities has enabled the Trust to focus its efforts more effectively on fund-raising•The CRM system has provided an effective way to manage relationships with donors and beneficiaries and provides up-to-the-minute performance reports on fundraising

The approachFacilitated by Improvement Skills Consulting, the organisation’s key business processes were defined and broken down into key activities. Staff were asked to identify how their time was spent against each of these activities. The analysis revealed a mis-match between what the Director felt was needed and how the team actually spent its time. Several options were developed for restructuring roles and workloads; these were presented to the Trustees and a preferred option was selected.

The analysis of processes also highlighted the need for a single CRM system (to replace four separate databases), with integrated performance reporting. A cloud-based CRM solution was implemented and has been tailored to the Trust’s requirements, enabling them to eliminate data duplication and to create timely and accurate performance reports.

Page 8: Operational Research case studies

The client: a small international ‘umbrella’ charity for street children

The client’s problem: the new fundraising manager wanted to improve the arguments and evidence for why the group’s work should be funded

The solution• construct logical and graphical descriptions for how the group achieves its impacts

• provide systematic analysis, of extensive unstructured written material, about group’s past work and its actual and possible impacts

• develop new logic-based impact-focussed processes for the grants scheme, and then test and refine via analysis using past grants applications and consultation

The benefits• the fundraising manager has been assisted in reformulating the fundamental arguments for the funding of the group’s work, increasing its chances of securing funding

• the organisation has improved evidence on what its has done and what it has funded others to do in the past and on what may have been achieved, plus clearer appreciation of where its evidence is limited and why, enabling it to improve the effectiveness of its future planning and fundraising

• the organisation has been enabled to improve the effectiveness of its grants scheme

The approachThe analyst began with a scoping study of the group’s work programmes, past and present, to propose options for how the work should proceed. Two strands of work were agreed: firstly, to draw together and analyse existing information held within the organisation about past projects that could be used as supporting evidence to arguments for funding the organisation’s different work programmes; and, secondly, to review, and propose a redesign to, the operational processes of the group’s small grants scheme, with the aim of giving these a much greater focus on impact.

This required, in both cases, a systematic analysis of a large quantity of unstructured written material, followed by a consultative approach with the group’s staff and relevant trustees to agree new processes for the grants scheme.

Fundraising: getting the evidence, telling the story

Central staffsupport &

management

Research

Capacity Building

Advocacy

Of members

Of allies

Reduces harm & barriers forstreet children

Improves grassrootssupport & help to street children

STREET CHILDREN

ORGANISATION AS A WHOLE

The organisation's four programmes

and how they have their impact

The 4 programmes support & strengthen each other,

b) By getting others to change policies & practices

a) By improving grassroots work with street children

and impact on street children:-

Page 9: Operational Research case studies

The client: an NGO and social enterprise running a health centre in rural Uganda

The client’s problem: the NGO had run into severe problems with keeping on top of its financial position and short-term planning, partly as a result of the complexities of the local reliance on non-cash transactions.

The solution• provide one-to-one guidance and support to finance manager on technical solutions to financial processes• set-up and facilitate participative short-term budget planning sessions• develop locally suitable technology to support this, eg using of home-made blackboards as ‘spreadsheets’ to record and display the agreed budgets• evolve use of participative planning sessions, once working, to start to address planning beyond short-term

The benefits• the organisation is now in much better control of its use of resources, and is better able to manage the variety of financial complexities and risks that have caused problems in the past, improving its current effectiveness• the organisation understands better what it needs from its local manager, and also is looking beyond short-term problems to start more strategic planning, enabling it to improve its future effectiveness• the local finance manager has increased personal capacity, for current and future jobs

The approachThe analyst began with conversations with the different staff, plus analysis of files, to try to understand the state of play in the organisation. It was clear that it was not on top of its recent financial performance and current position, but it required detailed analysis of the various (incomplete) bookkeeping records from recent years to understand why. The main problems had arisen because financial recording processes and financial management overall were not dealing adequately with a wide variety of debts and credits that arose normally because of the frequent lack of cash in this local rural subsistence economy. A variety of lines of analytical and facilitation work were required to overcome this, including technical fixes to record-keeping guidance, coaching of the new finance manager, use of home-made blackboards as spreadsheets for recording budgets, and crucially monthly participative financial review, budgeting and short-term planning sessions. The latter also provided a useful forum for starting longer-term planning.

Controlling costs and spending in a non-cash economy

Page 10: Operational Research case studies

Supporting a Homeless Charity’s Annual Client Survey

The client: A Westminster-based charity supporting homeless people sleeping rough and families in need.

The client’s problem: The Cardinal Hume Centre needed to know its impact on its clients and ensure that their voices were heard.

The solution•A well designed survey with a representative sample of online, phone and face to face client input. •Well presented results which provided maximum impact and insight.•A well written, professional report completed to a tight deadline.•A standard and framework established for future surveys.

The benefits•Provided the charity with crucial intelligence and insight.•Enabled the charity to deliver an evidence-based report for current and potential funders. •Helped the charity continue to refocus efforts in order to meet the changing needs of a diverse client group.

The approachThe analyst attended meetings with staff and volunteers to understand key requirements for the survey and to ensure that all involved were working towards a common goal. Roles and timescales were determined in order to deliver a survey to the Centre’s deadline.

The survey was designed and refined, before being launched online and through a ‘survey day’, where clients were interviewed in person and by phone. The analyst led in extracting initial key findings from the data and delegating sub-tasks to a team. Closely liaising with the client, the findings of the evaluation survey were written into a report which was completed to a tight deadline.

We valued the opportunity to work collaboratively and, without doubt, benefited from the analyst’s expertise and commitment to the project (Operations Director)

Page 11: Operational Research case studies

Developing trustee financial confidenceThe client:

a developing home care co-operativeThe client’s problem: a new social enterprise’s progress had been much slower than assumed in original financial plans; re-planning was needed, but trustees had limited understanding of original plans. The solution

• develop accessible graphical ways of presenting complex financial plans

• use existing meeting agenda items as training opportunities

• once group’s basic understanding develops, find opportunity to trigger fuller discussion of key issues

• if possible, move to simpler financial planning model to enable broader trustee ‘ownership’

The benefits• clearer medium term plans have been developed, based on simpler more realistic growth targets, which the trustees can understand and ‘own’• trustees understand much more what the business needs to do in order to reach a position of financial self-sustainability• trustees can see much better what part their efforts, e.g. in promoting the business, can play in helping the move towards financial self-sustainability

The approachThe analyst began by analysing and developing accessible ways of presenting fairly complex original financial plans to enable understanding and discussion, using graphics to talk through at meetings. He used a incremental approach of using agenda items at successive board meetings as opportunities for board training, e.g. budget setting, mid-year report against budget, and discussion. This led to the triggering, at a later meeting, of a discussion about the need to redraw financial plans and revise assumptions, and the suggestion of a simpler medium term objective to analyse and present at next meeting. At the next meeting, a financial plan based on the simpler objective and assumptions was presented, and the trustees were able to feel they had a good overall understanding of this. This enabled a constructive discussion of key assumptions and risks, and the trustees were better able to see how their own efforts could contribute to the ‘whole’.

Expenditure(+) and income(-) by organisational category, but with care work income shown net of care worker costs

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N D Jan-10

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F M A M J J A S O N D Jan-13

F M

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Cluster Care WorkIncome NET OF CareWorker CostsCorporate Set-up Costs

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Running balance at month end

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We now understand this all much better (Trustees)

Page 12: Operational Research case studies

Facing up to uncertaintyThe client:

A medium-sized charity supporting women affected by domestic violence

The client’s problem: All the main funding sources were due to terminate within the next six months, and funder decisions on new or replacement sources would not be made until the last minute

The solution•A spreadsheet model to support ‘what if’ analysis of different combinations of income and projects

•A facilitated workshop to help Director and Trustees to explore different futures

•Identification of priority actions and contingency plans

The benefits•By being able to see clearly the combined consequences of different sets of events, the Trustees and Director could think realistically about how they could respond or prepare for them

•This enabled them to take difficult decisions about timing of service closure, to prioritise fundraising and to lay contingency plans

•This in turn enabled them to survive and continue to provide their core service in the face of a bleak and uncertain funding environment.

The approachThe organisation’s total set of activities were broken down into direct project work, and central overheads, some of which were fixed and some of which varied with the scale of particular activities. All possible sources of funding were identified; some ‘restricted’ associated with particular projects, and some ‘unrestricted’. The spreadsheet was set up so that users could ask the questions ‘what if’: what if certain sources of funding materialised, what if certain projects were cut, what if salaries were increased, what if staff numbers were changed… with the answers in terms of: the overall surplus/deficit; the amount of additional funding needed to break even; the number of clients helped and the overall contribution to the organisation’s objectives. This was then used in a real-time session with Trustees and Director, giving them insight into the relationship between cost and income, and allowing them to test different management approaches.

Overall outcome (scenario 2)

There is a deficit carried forward from 2008/9No new East funding, and 20% of other speculative funding is achieved.East office is closed downWest counsellors are reducedAdmin costs are reduced

2009/10IncomeFirm grant 447,000Speculative grant 71,200Other 25,000

Total 543,200

ExpenditureCharitable 45,518Staff 386,491Premises 40,000Admin 35,785Equipment 5,000Depreciation 6,477

Total 519,271

Net surplus/deficit 23,929

Surplus/deficit cf from 2008/9 -50,000Surplus/deficit cf to 2010/11 -26,071

No of counselling sessions 3,440No of groupworkers 0.51No of advocates 8.10

Page 13: Operational Research case studies

Prioritising ActionThe client:

Kaleidoscope Enterprise Ltd (KEL) supplies services to black and minority ethnic groups in the Welwyn-Hatfield and wider areas with aims to empower disadvantaged people and groups

KEL also runs the Kaleidoscope Festival to celebrate diverse cultures (www.kaleidoscopefestival.org.uk/)

The client’s problem: KEL faced increasing pressure with reduced funding and loss of staff. The organisation sought support to the manager to develop a sustainable plan to deliver services

The solution•Identifying strengths and weaknesses and exposing issues

•Supporting an open dialogue

•Developing a focus on what is achievable

The benefits•The organisation has greater clarity of priorities•KEL has a developing action plan•The organisation is emerging from potential decline and re-establishing its presence

The approachThe consultant met with the manager and the Trustees to discuss the issues and ran a workshop to which Trustees, staff and stakeholders were invited. The workshop identified issues around what worked well and not so well and began an open dialogue where information was shared and a greater level of common understanding developed.The output from the workshop was used to develop a report for wider dissemination to key people unable to be present.

It also enabled the development of an initial action plan for the manager to discuss with the Trustees and prioritise the organisation’s activity to those likely to make the greatest impact upon their aims and objectives. The intervention also provided a mentoring opportunity for the manager.

Very empathetic and honest. An objective outsider who could add to my own knowledge and skills in understanding my organisation’s needs.

Page 14: Operational Research case studies

A staff team’s map of limboThe client: A small charity providing services to improve people’s employability, focusing particularly on disadvantaged people who are not supported by the mainstream.

The client’s problem: To address the challenging external environment, trustees had recently broadened the charity’s Objects - requiring a change of name – and agreed a move to cheaper premises. The Executive was now grappling with these changes, as well as new funding proposals, and felt the need for clarifying the road ahead. The solution

A facilitated workshop, involving staff and Chair of Trustees, to achieve shared clarity on what the charity is trying to achieve, what might be done to get there and what might go wrong.

The benefits•A ‘map of limbo’, helping staff to cope better with the change around them•A greater shared confidence in moving forward•A more positive workforce

The ApproachThe OR Pro Bono facilitator made sure that she understood the key external issues facing the charity, and that the Chief Executive and other senior staff were happy with the proposed workshop outline.On the day, the group explored: the charitable objects, what made them distinctive, their strengths and weaknesses as an organisation, opportunities in the environment and self-generated, threats and risks, and current and future funding and activities.The openness of the approach, its responsiveness to the needs of the group, and the willingness of participants to contribute, meant that the workshop exposed a number of significant issues that were publicly acknowledged and shared for the first time. The systematic nature of the approach brought out underlying assumptions, beliefs and tacit knowledge. Thus the organisation’s goals, values, and plans were clearly articulated and could be tested and shared by all.

‘There is a clearer understanding of peoples roles and funding being applied for as well. This all makes for a more positive workforce with a clearer understanding of the way forward’ – Projects and Communications Manager

Page 15: Operational Research case studies

A resource planning tool for a charity The client:

Springboard for Children. Working to change the effects of underachievement and social exclusion among children in deprived communities

The client’s problem: To develop a resource planning tool that can be used to examine different options together with a short report

The solution• Pulled together the key financial and staff information into one spreadsheet • Created a summary of key statistics that updates automatically as resources are adjusted• Created a user friendly tool to conduct scenario analysis on various resource options and allows the user to easily compare options

The benefits• The charity was able to get a fresh perspective and benefit from an innovative solution in a short timescale• The volunteer enjoyed using her skills to improve processes within a charity that is working to improve the lives of children in deprived communities • Staff now have ownership of their planning and we have already generated some interesting new ideas to help more childrenThe approachThe charity runs two literacy schemes amongst schools in London and Manchester. It has a range of staff working on the schemes from managers to volunteers, each with a unique salary and working pattern. I began by pulling the information together into a spreadsheet, allowing for both unique and average salaries, so that the key information could be extracted easily for reports to the Trustees.

I created a tool that could conduct scenario analysis by varying the inputs (schools, pupils, staff). The tool had to be flexible to allow for different staff roles (and associated costs), but with constraints to ensure there were enough staff to meet the staff to pupil ratio. This tool is now being used to generate new ideas and ways of working and create a budget plan for 2014/2015 academic year and beyond.

Resource planning has been a stumbling block for Springboard for years. As a new CEO I know it’s important to enable innovation and growth at Springboard and a key part of that was re-thinking how we plan our services.

Page 16: Operational Research case studies

Where next? What first?The client:The Disability Law Service provides legal advice to disabled people and their families/carers

The client’s problem: With funding cuts to themselves, but ever-growing needs from their beneficiaries as the consequences of austerity bite, the organisation needed to develop a sustainable set of priorities – and bring staff with them.The solution

•A draft workshop agenda to enable the Chair and Chief Executive to focus on what they really wanted to achieve

•Information circulated to all workshop participants to enable them to think in advance about key issues, especially their mission and vision

•A pre-workshop email-based SWOT exercise to provide starter material for the workshop

•A fast and focused facilitated workshop, with write-up delivered soon after

The benefits•Participants, including all staff and most trustees, were brought to the same point in thinking about what the organisation is trying to achieve, and what challenges it faces•Participants reached a shared understanding of the strengths and weaknesses that they could exploit, or needed to build on, in future planning•Together with the list of options generated at the meeting, this gave a sound basis for future strategy development and prioritisation

The approachThe Chair and Chief Executive of the charity had already planned to approach the problem through a two-hour workshop to which all staff and trustees had been invited. They simply wanted the O.R. volunteer to facilitate the workshop.The O.R. volunteer met the Chair and Chief Executive the week before the workshop to understand the issues facing the organisation, and the outcomes they wanted from the workshop and longer term. The first challenge was to work out how anything useful could be achieved from such a short workshop; especially bearing in mind that this was the first such workshop the organisation had held.

Following the meeting, the volunteer agreed an agenda for the workshop, together with advance materials that gave a springboard to discussion without detracting from engagement at the workshop itself. This enabled a smooth and productive workshop, with collective agreement on next steps.

Ruth very quickly understood what we were trying to achieve, and designed a workshop which helped us achieve our objectives in a very short space of time. Ruth's involvement in this phase of our strategy development helped us to have a new kind of conversation as an organisation. 

Page 17: Operational Research case studies

Addressing Loneliness in Rural North Yorkshire The client:

Harrogate and Ripon Centres for Voluntary Service

The client’s problem: Having recently taken over a rural visiting service for the elderly in North Yorkshire, the client wanted to ensure the service could realise as much benefit as possible.

The solution• Established the aims of the service and how it

meets those aims, in particular; sources and types of client and how the service is delivered

• Developed a strategy map and balanced scorecard that could be used to develop and monitor the service in the future

• Produced a report that contains a system diagram of how the service works and an recommended changes to the system

The benefits• Thorough understanding of the service and the wider system it is part of

•Strategy map for reducing loneliness identified and evidenced

•Client ‘taken on the journey’, so understands where strategies come from

•Produced a solid foundation from which to re-model the service and apply for associated funding

The approach•Collected information and evidence through interviews with stakeholders, accompanying project team on visits to clients, reviewing survey feedback and finance information; used information to produce an initial system diagram

•Facilitated workshop with key stakeholder to present, discuss, amend and built on the system diagram

•Thematic analysis of interview notes then allowed clarification and quantification of major themes and topics

•The above analysis led to a list of clear recommendations

•These recommendations were brought together into a strategy map, from which a balanced scorecard of measures can monitor progress and outcomes of the service to ensure maximum benefit

I’m really pleased with the report and it will be very useful indeed for forward planning and to support our Big Lottery bid

Page 18: Operational Research case studies

Modelling the UK dog populationThe clientsThe RSPCA is the UK’s leading animal welfare charity. Dog-ED is a Social Enterprise applying Systems Thinking to canine welfare.

The client’s problem: Just how many dogs are there in the UK and how many are moving in and out of welfare/rescue? Without an understanding of the population and how it is stratified, it is difficult to propose meaningful welfare improvement policies. The solution

The literature review identified around 50 data sources and 100 data points and time-series.

No consensus on the overall population was possible due to multiple discrepancies and some questionable validity among the data sources – the population estimates ranged from 8.5 to 11+ million dogs in the UK.

A stocks and flows model was developed in Excel, but a lack of data prevented the modelling questions from being answered – new data requirements were identified for future work.

The benefitsWe now know what we don’t know about the UK dog population, based on a rigorous literature review.The DECC team felt they built a strong relationship with the clients and helped sell the benefits of O.R. to them.The clients can now argue the case for better data collection, to inform policy-making, with a clearer view of what is needed in order to model the dog population more fully in the future.

The approachA team of 4 Pro Bono O.R. volunteers from DECC set out to help the clients establish a consensus view of how many dogs there are ‘in the system’ and how they move between different parts of the system, such as strays and rescue.

The scope of the project covered:Reviewing the available data, by means of a literature review, in order to produce a snapshot of the UK dog population.Designing and building a stocks and flows model to investigate the movement of dogs from ownership (including working dogs), through welfare organisations (including strays).Developing recommendations for possible uses and future development of the model, taking account of potential additional sources of data (e.g. Kennel Club, PetLog, DEFRA).

The DECC team brought a disciplined approach to this project and really highlighted the data and evidence challenges in this complex social policy area

Stray dogs

Dogs in welfare

Owned dogs

Owned births

Owneddeaths

Stray births

Stray deaths

Welfarebirths

Welfare deaths

Owned dogs to welfare

Welfare dogs to owned

Owned dogs to stray

Stray dogs to ownedStray dogs to welfare

Imported owned dogs

Dogs imported towelfare

Owned dogexports

Number of dogsmicrochipped

Owner educationlevel re dogs

Welfare life expectancy

Owned dog lifeexpectancy

Stray dog lifeexpectancy

Space available inwelfare

Euthanasia policy

Emmigration

Number of dogbreeders

Number of puppyfarms

Funding for welfare

Welfare capacity

Demand fordogs in UK

Number ofowned dogs

having puppies

Demand for dogs -non-UK

Disposable income

Insurance rates

Number ofdogs lost

Number ofdogs

abandoned

Number of dogsneutered

9.4m (23)

2009 LB: 12,340

2010 LB:10,630

est 1,250 (300to 2130)

111,000 peryear (13)

Strays back to owner -53,280 per year (13)Rehomed - 9,990

per year (13)

Put to sleep/die 8,880per year (13)

Working dogs

27,750 per year (13)

Entering welfare:129,743 per year (1)

0.5% of welfare inflows (27, scaled)

11.4% of outflow died (27)LB 7142 euthanised (1)

Assume 0

Welfare dogs reunited withowner - 12.5% of those

entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%of those entering (27)

Rehomed - 80.9%of outflows (27)

69.5% of welfareinflows (27, scaled)

30% of welfare inflows (27,scaled) - this includes LA and

public straying dogs

11.4% of dogs peryear? (36)

25% of dogs peryear? (est from

24, 41)

12 years (34)

4% of microchipped are from Ireland,3% from other EU, 2% from outside

EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)

50,000 dogs importedfrom Ireland per year (31)

Working dogsto owned

greyhounds - 3,910per year (33)

Workingdog births

Workingdog deaths

Working dog lifeexpectancy

Requirements forworking dogs

Working dogs towelfareAt least 2500

police dogs(45)

Page 19: Operational Research case studies

For more information please see my blog, webpage, Twitter or LinkedIn page.

Webpage: www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx

Blog: http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/

@FMcLeister

Felicity McLeister

I look forward to hearing from you.

For more informationEmail [email protected]