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Alessandro Arbib (DECC) presented the results of a pro bono research project at the Operational Research Society's 2014 Conference OR56.
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It’s a dog life: modelling the UK dog population
Alessandro Arbib
2
Overview of this presentation• Background
• Objectives & Scope
• Summary of work
• Evidence gaps
• Outcomes
• Working with the Third Sector
Modelling the UK dog population
Background
Background
4`` Modelling the UK dog population
The RSPCA is the UK’s leading animal welfare charity.
Dog-ED is a Social Enterprise applying Systems Thinking to canine welfare.
3 Operational Research and 1 engineer from DECC
Objectives and aims
Alessandro Arbib
6
Objective & AimsTo answer the following question:
• A consensus view of how many dogs there are “in the system” and how they move between different parts of the system
• How many dogs are relinquished and why? Which type of dog?
• Can we forecast the likely impact of different interventions ?
Modelling the UK dog population
7 Modelling the UK dog population
Scope of the work
• Review the available data
• Design and build a model
• Develop recommendations for possible uses and future development of the model
Summary of work
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9 Modelling the UK dog population
Literature ReviewLiterature Review of relevant papers and reports
• ~50 different sources
• ~100 data points and times series
• Assessment of data quality
10 Modelling the UK dog population
Snapshot of dog population
Aim: Consensus view of dogs that are in the system
• No consensus between sources possible
• Multiple discrepancies
• Validity of some sources should be questioned
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13 Modelling the UK dog population
The Model
Stray dogs
Dogs in welfare
Owned dogs
Owned births
Owneddeaths
Stray births
Stray deaths
Welfarebirths
Welfare deaths
Owned dogs to welfare
Welfare dogs to owned
Owned dogs to stray
Stray dogs to ownedStray dogs to welfare
Imported owned dogs
Dogs imported towelfare
Owned dogexports
Number of dogsmicrochipped
Owner educationlevel re dogs
Welfare life expectancy
Owned dog lifeexpectancy
Stray dog lifeexpectancy
Space available inwelfare
Euthanasia policy
Emmigration
Number of dogbreeders
Number of puppyfarms
Funding for welfare
Welfare capacity
Demand fordogs in UK
Number ofowned dogs
having puppies
Demand for dogs -non-UK
Disposable income
Insurance rates
Number ofdogs lost
Number ofdogs
abandoned
Number of dogsneutered
9.4m (23)
2009 LB: 12,340
2010 LB:10,630
est 1,250 (300to 2130)
111,000 peryear (13)
Strays back to owner -53,280 per year (13)Rehomed - 9,990
per year (13)
Put to sleep/die 8,880per year (13)
Working dogs
27,750 per year (13)
Entering welfare:129,743 per year (1)
0.5% of welfare inflows (27, scaled)
11.4% of outflow died (27)LB 7142 euthanised (1)
Assume 0
Welfare dogs reunited withowner - 12.5% of those
entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%of those entering (27)
Rehomed - 80.9%of outflows (27)
69.5% of welfareinflows (27, scaled)
30% of welfare inflows (27,scaled) - this includes LA and
public straying dogs
11.4% of dogs peryear? (36)
25% of dogs peryear? (est from
24, 41)
12 years (34)
4% of microchipped are from Ireland,3% from other EU, 2% from outside
EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)
50,000 dogs importedfrom Ireland per year (31)
Working dogsto owned
greyhounds - 3,910per year (33)
Workingdog births
Workingdog deaths
Working dog lifeexpectancy
Requirements forworking dogs
Working dogs towelfareAt least 2500
police dogs(45)
14 Modelling the UK dog population
The Model• Stocks: Owned, In rescue, Stray
and Working
• Flows: birth and death rates, import and export rates, flows within the system
• Time step: weekly update
• Possibility to adjust flow rates (as effect of policy intervention)
Owned
Working
In Rescue
Stray
Evidence Gaps
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16 Modelling the UK dog population
Missing Stocks & FlowsStocks
Dogs in Welfare
• Lower bound only
Working dogs
• We can only get data on police dogs (from Wikipedia)
Flows
Numbers of dogs being imported into the UK
• Poor quality data from Defra
• Births of non-KC dogs: these are not registered
And more….
17 Modelling the UK dog population
Data QualityDifficult to get a breakdown of data by dog breed/category/time series
Granularity
• Little information about breed-rates of non-KC dogs (pure-breed, X-breed or mongrels)
• Lack of time series data
Inconsistency
• Significant variation in “top-down” estimates of total population
– 8.5-11+ million
– Significant uncertainty
18 Modelling the UK dog population
Predicting the future dog populationDog movements within the system
• Influenced by economic and societal influences
• These are very difficult to predict
Stock evolution
• Starting point for future calculation not known (e.g. 2014 dog pop.)
• Uncertainties are proportionally very high
Outcomes
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20 Modelling the UK dog population
Significant outputs from our work• Significant review of data sources,
with all data summarised in one location
• Large number of evidence gaps identified
• Snapshot of dog population
• System map with stocks & flows
• Creation of Excel model to be populated as/when data comes available
What is next?Await introduction of compulsory microchipping in 2016
• This will provide a significant boost to the available data
• Breakdown of the total dog population into sub-categories will be much easier to obtain
• Trends will be more identifiable, and easier to track
Consider ways in which evidence gaps can be addressed:
• Surveys of owners and breeders
• Commission some academic work
• Work with the Kennel Club and PetLog
• Approach the Pet Food Manufacturers society
21 Modelling the UK dog population
Working for the Third Sector
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What went well• Application of OR techniques to
Pro Bono projects
• Enhanced knowledge of interesting areas
• Professional development
• Team spirit
• Excellent day at Battersea Dogs & Cats Home
• Relationship with client
23 Modelling the UK dog population
What could have gone better• Underestimate of project length
• Loss of momentum of project over last couple of months – the 10% of tidying up time has been drawn out.
• Disappointing that the ambition of original ‘ideal’ of building and using a model could not be realised due to lack of quality data.
24 Modelling the UK dog population
Questions?
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