Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey
Business Out of Political Journalism and Science
1
Recommended Resources
2
Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/
Why Bother?
3https://xkcd.com/386/
Why Bother?
Actually:
Lots of people are wrong,not only on the internet,but also on television, radio and in the newspapers…
4https://xkcd.com/386/
Disclaimer
5
I'm an engineer, not a statistician
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/
Disclaimer
6
I'm an engineer, not a statistician
● Terminology is most certainly wrong
● I may be doing some “monkey business” too…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/
7https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Define “Monkey Business”
8https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Common Pitfalls
● Global margins of error
● Small differences blown out of proportions
● Scores around thresholds
● Seat distributions without margins of error
● Majority in votes or seats?
● Opinion poll outliers
Example
9
Client: Vårt Land
Pollster: Norstat
Fieldwork: 23–29 March 2015
Published: 1 April 2015
Sample size: 961 respondents
Margin of error: N/A
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
Above or Below the Threshold?
10
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ P(V < 4 %) = 61 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ P(SV < 4 %) = 98.7 %
MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ P(MDG ≥ 4 %) = 71 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
Who's Larger?
11
MDG: 4.3 %
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ P(MDG > V) ≈ 71 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ P(MDG > SV) ≈ 97 %
⇒ P(V > SV) ≈ 93 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
Who's Larger – in Seats?
12
MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 10 seats
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 9 seats
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 0 – 2 seats
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
Distribution of Seats
13
Ap: 41.7 % 71 – 82 seats⇒
H: 22.3 % 35 – 46 seats⇒
Frp: 10.0 % 15 – 22 seats⇒
KrF: 6.5 % 9 – 15 seats⇒
Sp: 5.9 % 8 – 14 seats⇒
MDG: 4.3 % 1 – 10 seats⇒
V: 3.8 % 1 – 9 seats⇒
SV: 2.6 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
Rødt: 1.8 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
14https://www.flickr.com/photos/jdhancock/4816476075/
Free Data Sources
Upcoming and Past Elections
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
15https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
Upcoming and Past Elections
IFES Election Guide
http://www.electionguide.org/
16https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
17
18
19
20
Upcoming and Past Elections
European Election Database (EED)
http://www.nsd.uib.no/ european_election_database/
21https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
22
23
24
25
26
Opinion Poll Results
27
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
28
Opinion Poll Results
29
Electograph
http://www.electograph.com/
Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
TV2 Partibarometeret
http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/
30
31
32
33
Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
34
Poll of Polls
http://www.pollofpolls.no/
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Election Results Forecasts
Electoral Calculus
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
44
Election Results Forecasts
Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/
45
46https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Introducing “SAPoR”
Why SAPoR?
47
● More fun than using R
● Seat distributions
https://github.com/filipvanlaenen/sapor
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Recommended Resources
48
Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/
