How big data can help in reducing the affects of climate change

NATIONAL STATISTICS DAY SMART FARMING :

HOW BIG DATA CAN REDUCE THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

DANISH ALI HAKIM (DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING)RAJ KUMAR KUNDU (RURAL DEVELOPMENT & PANCHAYATI RAJ)

(YOUNG INTERNS PROGRAM 2015)

(Note :The views and ideas present in this document are of authors and it has nothing to do with the department they are currently working.)

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Climate Change over entire Planet

3

Ç

Asia and Australia South AmericaNorth AmericaEurope

Africa


Climate Change and it’s effects on Agriculture

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Climate change and its variability are emerging as the major challenges influencing the performance of Indian agriculture.Long-term changes in shifting weather patterns result in changing climate, which threaten agricultural productivity through high and low temperature regimes, increased rainfall variability,which causes high risk of flooding.

Farmers due to lack of information find difficulty in farming and end up in crop loss.

Higher temperatures tend to reduce yields of many crops; and encourage proliferation of weeds and pests.

Chain supply management gets disturbed which causes delay in food reaching stores resulting in increasing prices of food items.


Climate Change influencing factors of agriculture

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Degradation of soil fertility,crop damage by pests and unexpected drought and flood situationsUncertainty creation in agricultural production and it’s vulnerability

Increase in price of food items and changes in policies and farmers adaptabilityNegative impact on crops Physiology and Morphology


Observations by academia's on climate change

6

Sinha and Swaminathan (1991)

Showed that an increase of 2°C in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and an increase by 0.5°C in winter season would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.

Saseenandra et. al (2000)

showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6% .


Climate change trend in Rajasthan during last 50 years

(1950-2010)

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Annual Winter Summer Monsoon Post Monsoon

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Rainfall trend in mm

Mean Max. temperature trendMean temp. trend

Mean Min. Temperature trend


Maize12%

Growth rate decrease

Impact on agricultural production and food prices by

climate changeBy 2030, 9 out of 10 major crops will experience reduced or

stagnant growth rates, while average price will increase dramatically in result, at least in some part due to climate

change

90%Price increase

Rice Wheat Other23%


89%Price increase

13%


75%Price increase

8%


83%Price increase


Problems faced by farmers from climate change

9

pPR

Continuous fluctuation in temperature and rainfall creates disturbance in seasonal cropping pattern.Improper knowledge of usage of fertilizers creates imbalances in soil nutrients causing soil erosion and degradationDecreasing crop production leads to migration towards city for search of work

Smart farming through big data

What is big data ?

• There are some things which are so big, that have implications for everyone weather you want it or not.

• Big data is one of those things and it is completely transforming the way we do work and is impacting most other parts of our lives.

• The basic idea behind the phrase “Big data” is that everything we do is increasingly leaving a digital trace (or data) which we (or others) can use and analyze


Four V’s of Data

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Uses of Big Data

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Big Data

Activity Data Photo and Video Image Data

Conversation Data Internet of Things Data


Era of New Generation ComputingCognitive Computing

It is the simulation of human thought processes in a

computerized model. Cognitive computing involves

self-learning systems that use data mining, pattern

recognition and natural language processing to mimic

the way the human brain works


Cognitive Computing (Precision Agriculture)

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Uses of Cognitive and Big Data in agriculture around the world

CANADA

USA

COLOMBIA

BRAZIL

MOROCCOAFRICA

EUROPEAN UNION

ISRAELJAPAN

MALAYSIAAUSTRALIA

NEW ZELAND

Colombiat

Uses of Cognitive Computing In Colombia and Brazil• Researchers have applied Big Data analytics to

agricultural and weather records in Colombia, revealing how climate variation impacts rice yields.

• Colombia enjoys tropical sunshine, diverse landscapes and multiple crops per year, so agriculture should be driving its economic development

• Between 2007 and 2012, the yield from irrigated rice mysteriously dropped from 6 to 5 tons per hectare, erasing the increase achieved over the previous decade. The cause of the shrinking yields is unknown, but climate change is a leading suspect..


• International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) have applied Big Data tools to pinpoint strategies that work for small-scale farmers in a changing climate.

• By collecting data from rice survey, harvest monitoring records and results from agronomic experiments. the CIAT used advanced algorithms borrowed from fields like biology, robotics and neuroscience to comb through these data and tease out patterns that lined up with weather records.

• The results were highly site-specific. The analysis showed that rice yields were limited mainly by solar radiation during the grain-ripening stage. On further analysis they found what crop will be best to plant in suitable climatic condition. • Reduced the yield gap and provided a better capacity management

among farmers and also increased their livelihood • This model UN Global Pulse Award on Big Data climate change and

adopted by 5 countries.


Utilization of Big Data and Cognitive Computing in

India for agriculture

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• From the effort s of our Honorable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi Ji,

India is soon going to receive a highly advanced supercomputer which will

10 times more faster than “PARAM” supercomputer in solving complex

calculations as well as predicting monsoon by 90% accuracy.

• Indian Metrological Department is working on revival of models of

“Seasonal Forecast” “Short range Forecast” and “Medium (20 day

Forecast” (Short term/ Un-official).

• Indian Institute of Sciences (Climatology and Oceanography Department)

has recently send a team of scientists in Indian Ocean with help from

U.A.E. (drones, robots) to collect and analyze large data sets of deep sea.

• Government of Tamil Nadu and Tripura has also started working on

Geographical Information System (GIS) system to model the prediction of

weather forecasting for agriculture.


References

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• " Climate Smart Agriculture:an approach to sustainable development" - by Shalini Pandey• " Deforestation,Climate change and Sustainable Nutrition Security : A case study in India" - Sinha and Swaminathan 1991• "India's National Food Security Act- A review"- Dr. Anil Kumar Thakur and Dr. Deepti Taneja• "Precision Agriculture- Cognitive computing in farming"- research.ibm.com• "Big Data for climate smart agriculture in Colombia" - ccafs.cgiar.org• "Climate change trend report" - Indian Meteorological Department• "Impact of climate change on agriculture"- Food and Agricultural Organisation • "Bits and Bytes in agriculture" - Monsanto.com • "Redefining renewable energy from IBM WATSON"- research.ibm.com


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Data & Analytics

How big data can help in reducing the affects of climate change