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Ensemble Multispecies modelling and the BLUEBRIDGE initiative
Robert Thorpe et al.ICES ASC2016 @ Riga
September 2016
Contents
• What is the LeMans Model?
• What can it do?
• Why do we need BlueBridge to help?
• What benefits will there be to the consortium?
LeMans Model Framework
• Species and size-structured• Intermediate complexity model• Conservation of energy in predator/prey link• Life-history traits determine species’ response• Fish community focus, not whole ecosystem
SMS LeMANS Ecopath/Ecospace
Data-drivenTactical
Energy-flow drivenStrategic
LeMans Model Framework (2)
• 21 stocks, 32 size classes
• 10 assessed stocks, inc. cod, haddock, herring, sprat, saithe, sole, whiting
• 11 non-assessed stocks
• 78,125 model variants considered
LeMans Model Framework (3)• Energy requirements, growth, diet composition,
mortality, stock recruitment all represented as functions of length.
• Growth trajectories determined by von Bertalanffy parameters, L infinity and k.
• Diet matrix used along with size to determine what eats what.
• Uncertainties in life history, predation size-selectivity, non-predation natural mortality, stock recruitment, energy needed for growth, diet matrix addressed by ensemble approach
Contents
• What is the LeMans Model?
• What can it do?
• Why do we need BlueBridge to help?
• What benefits will there be to the consortium?
LFI versus Risk by Fleet
Good relationship for otter fleet
Poor for beam and industrial
Intermediate for pelagics
LFI primarily an index of cod and saithe, so better performance for otter fleet is expected
Risk/Reward through PGY Ranges
• Circles are central estimates.
• Spread due to fleet uncertainty.
• Risk is estimated from parameter spreads
• Green region = multispecies precautionary
In the highest part of the ranges, risk increases whilst yield goes down.
Risk increases by 8x, yield by 20% from bottom to top of ranges
Visualising Multispecies MSY
Yield/Risk plots allow multispecies trade-offs to be explicitly presented.
Corresponding fishing solutions can be recovered from modelling.
Information can be used to guide management advice.
2 million simulations
Model uncertaintyFleet management uncertainty.
4 idealised fleets – beam, otter, industrial, pelagicMMSY == fleet combination giving
maximum precautionary yield
Impact of Gear Changes
HISTORIC STECFEACH FLEET CATCHES ONLY 1 STOCK
4 fleets, beam, otter, pelagic, industrial ~2 million simulations eachParameter and fishing scenario uncertainty
Contents
• What is the LeMans Model?
• What can it do?
• Why do we need BlueBridge to help?
• What benefits will there be to the consortium?
Methodology
651 fleet scenarios:Otter BeamIndustrialPelagic
Determine plausible optionsLiterature review
78,125 member UE
Filter against historic data
188 member FE
Identify key parametersHall et al., 2006
2.57M forecasts:parameter, scenario, and management uncertainty
Consider impacts on risk and economic yield. What % are multispecies precautionary?
21 FMSY targets
Contents
• What is the LeMans Model?
• What can it do?
• Why do we need BlueBridge to help?
• What benefits will there be to the consortium?
Benefits
• Demonstration of supercomputing capability as applied to management
• Development of ICES multi-species community model.
• Increased collaboration between ICES partners.
• Better risk based advice.