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Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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Tune in at 33voic.es/in3oiab Professor David Hand is Senior Research Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Mathematics at Imperial College, London, where he formerly held the Chair in Statistics. He is also Chief Scientific Advisor to Winton Capital Management, a Fellow of the British Academy, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He has served (twice) as President of the Royal Statistical Society. He was appointed a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority on 1 April 2013 for a period of three years, and is Chair of the Board of the UK Administrative Data Research Network. In 2002 he was awarded the Guy Medal of the Royal Statistical Society, and in 2012 he and his research group won the Credit Collections and Risk Award for Contributions to the Credit Industry. He has published 300 scientific papers and 26 books, including Principles of Data Mining, Information Generation, and Measurement Theory and Practice. His new book, The Improbability Principle, will be published in February 2014. In 2013 he was made OBE for services to research and innovation.

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Page 1: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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insights from David J. Hand

Page 2: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

This presentation consists of 10 highlights from the interview with Moe Abdou,

founder & host of 33voices®.

Page 3: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

David J. Hand

Professor David Hand is Senior Research Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Math-ematics at Imperial College, London, where he formerly held the Chair in Statistics. He is also Chief Scientific Advisor to Winton Capital Management, a Fellow of the British Acad-emy, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He has served (twice) as Presi-dent of the Royal Statistical Society. He was appointed a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority on 1 April 2013 for a period of three years, and is Chair of the Board of the UK Administrative Data Research Network. In 2002 he was awarded the Guy Medal of the Royal Statistical Society, and in 2012 he and his research group won the Credit Collections and Risk Award for Contributions to the Credit Industry.

Page 4: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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Extremely improbable events are commonplace;

accept it, understand it and appreciate it.

Page 5: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

Page 6: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of inevitability

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of truly large numbers

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of selection

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of probability lever

Page 10: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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To understand the Improbability Principle,keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:

The law of near enough

Page 11: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

3

Correlation does not imply causation.

be cautious that correlated events may just have a common cause.

Page 12: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

4

If you’re superstitious, it’s likely just a belief.

still, the laws of probability don’t validate any type of superstition.

Page 13: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

5

In evaluating future opportunities, it’s wise to collect as much retrospective data as possible

and look for patterns to support your decision.

Page 14: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on

what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.

Page 15: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on

what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.

Page 16: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

7

Ignore chance and randomness in life at your peril;

they will happen.

Page 17: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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To improve the odds that you’ll ‘be in the right place at the right time,’

give yourself more opportunities -

get visible.

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Rest assured that there are

no certainties in life!

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10

Looking back is easy, but looking forward is almost impossible.

the role of chance in life is real.

Page 20: Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

Do you believe in miracles?

REALLY REFLECT...