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Disturbance in the ForceEconomic data that keep me up at night
Edward [Ned] HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing Institute
Potential GDP versus Actual GDPThe gap is closing
Hill November 18, 2015 2
12-month quarterly change in GDPHovering around 2%--not bad
Hill November 18, 2015 3
Change in jobs since the start of the Great RecessionUp more than 4 million jobs
Hill November 18, 2015 4
Labor Market
Ohio: Change in nonfarm employment since the start of the Great Recession: Still down
Hill November 18, 2015 5
Labor Market
12-month percent change in employmentGrowth in private sector; Temp employment still strong
Hill November 18, 2015 6
Labor Market
Unemployment RatesOhio consistently below U.S. & benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 7
Labor Market
U.S. Annual Labor Force Participation Rates by AgeAdult Men down to 81%; Where are the kids?
Hill November 18, 2015 8
Labor Market
Annual Labor Force Participation Rates in the United States, Ohio and Ohio’s benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 9
Labor Market
U.S. Average number of hours workedClimbing but not at 39
Hill November 18, 2015 10
Labor Market
Two measures of the unemployment rateBoth dropping, Under-employment rate near 10%
Hill November 18, 2015 11
Labor Market
Owners’ Equity in Real EstateNearly doubled since bottom of recession
Hill November 18, 2015 12
Housing
Deleveraging of the Housing Market continuesMortgage debt as percent of home equity
Hill November 18, 2015 13
Housing
Energy prices are the stimulus program
Hill November 18, 2015 14
Energy markets
Hill November 18, 2015 15
Energy---Natural Gas Prices
Capacity Utilization Stuck or the Start of the 4th Industrial Revolution—the digital factory?
Hill November 18, 2015 16
Manufacturing
Industry 4.0The German View
Hill November 18, 2015 17
Manufacturing
Industry 4.0
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Manufacturing
Are manufacturers ordering new tools and equipment?Nondefense capital goods—sort of stuck
Hill November 18, 2015 19
Manufacturing
Monthly Automobile ProductionAround 300,000 units a month
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Manufacturing
Annualized Automobile & Light Truck Sales
Hill November 18, 2015 21
Manufacturing
Dollar increases in 12.1% in value over the past year
Hill November 18, 2015 22
Currency
Euro: Annual increase of Dollar 15.5%
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Currency
Yen is dropping: Annual Change is 0.5%The days of 108 Yen are long gone
Hill November 18, 2015 24
Currency
Hill November 18, 2015 25
China “Economic Deceleration”
CHINATruth-Telling on China's Economy16 NOV 18, 2015 5:00 PM ESTBy A. Gary Shilling
Ned HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing InstituteFaculty of the Discovery Theme in Materials & Manufacturing for Sustainability
Email: [email protected]
26Hill: Urban Regeneration: The U.S. Case
