Predictive Applications are going to steal your jobLars Trieloff | @trieloff @byanalytics_en

Data-Driven Decisions in Retail

Pricing Replenishment Targeting

Artificial Intelligence, Real Results

Open the valves of knowledge and let wisdom flow!

IPredictive Apps are the most powerful way to use data

Physiological

Safety

Love/Belonging

Esteem

Self-Actualization

— Abraham Maslov – probably never said this. It’s true anyway.“Data has Human Needs, too”

Collection

Storage

Analysis

Prediction

Decision

Collection

Storage

Analysis

Prediction

Decision

Physiological

Safety

Love/Belonging

Esteem

Self-Actualization

More than half of the apps on a typical iPhone home screen are predictive applications.

IIMachines are working faster and cheaper than humans

Example Pricing

0

4500

9000

13500

18000

Before After

Cost per 1000 price changes

Example Pricing

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

Before After

Cost per 1000 price changes Prices set per night

IIIThey are not just faster and cheaper, they are also better at making decisions

Decision Quality

Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation

— The Economist, May 2015

“The best chess players in the world are ‘centaurs’, amalgamated teams of humans and algorithms.”

Decision Quality

Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation 'Centaurs'

— Arthur Schopenhauer

“Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.”

IVAutomation used to be a “blue collar problem”, now it is becoming a “white collar problem”

I don’t work in an assembly line.

And I don’t play table tennis.

— Daniel Susskind, co-author “The Future of the Professions”

“I feel deeply uncomfortable with that, but it may be that for some tasks machines can make these decisions more effectively and efficiently”

21% of my time is spent with communication & scheduling. No way a robot could do that.

— Charles Duhigg, “The Power of Habit”

“More than 40 percent of the actions people performed each day aren’t actual decisions, but habits.”

VIt’s officially time to FREAK OUT!

Checkmate, humans!

VIMost of our decisions are not rational

Human Decision Making has two systems – and only one is rational.

Not quite Almost there That’s it.

Quick: What do you see here?

VIIMost of our fears are not rational either

— Daniel Kahneman

“Humans tend to infer the general from the particular but are reluctant to deduce the particular from the general.”

VIIIExpect huge inequality in job losses

— Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford University

“According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk [of replacement by automation]”

— William Gibson

“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”

IXThe boring jobs are the first to go

No fun, lots of riskLoan officers

Receptionists

Paralegals

Retail salespeople

Taxi drivers

Security guards

Fast food cooks

Bartenders

Personal financial advisors

Reporters

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No fun, lots of riskKreditech

ChihiraAico

eBrevia

E-Commerce

Google Self-Driving Cars

iRobot

Momentum Machines

Monsieur

Pefin

Narrative Sciences

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XSome things can’t be taken away

— Dan Pink

“People are now spending about 40 percent of their time at work engaged in persuading, influencing, and convincing others.

Across a range of professions, we are devoting roughly twenty-four minutes of every hour to moving others.”

Strategic Impact

0

12,5

25

37,5

50

0 20 40 60 80

Revenue Only Mostly Revenue Both Mostly Profit Profit Only

Conclusion

Predictive Applications are already here …

They will change the way we work

And let us do what we can do best: be human.

Lars Trieloff @trieloff