Coriander Update

Coriander/ Dhania – May trend down due to sufficient supplies and better crop next season

18th November, 2016

Coriander Update Coriander Price Performance - Monthly

• In 2016, Coriander prices on futures market

recovered after touching its lowest levels in 12

months during February.

• Coriander prices have been lower in 2016

compared to last two year amid higher

production estimate due to high acreage and

reports on increase imports possibly from Russia.

2

• The production of coriander was forecasted higher in 2015-16 compared to previous year’s

production. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, lower area and unseasonal rains have limit the

production in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

• The prices of coriander seed in 2014 and 2015 touched all time highs due to increasing

domestic demand, less carry over stocks, higher exports and lower supplies from previous

year crops.

• The domestic prices of coriander seed mainly depends on the forecast of area and

production, weather during crop development, carry over stocks and export demand.

• Market is expecting a bumper crop during 2016-17 season due to good sowing progress.

6500 6700 6900 7100 7300 7500 7700 7900 8100

Jan-1

6

Feb-1

6

Mar-1

6

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-16

Sep-1

6

Oct-1

6

No

v-16

Source: NCDEX

Monthly Avg Closing Coriander Price (Rs /Quintal)- NCDEX

Coriander Update Coriander Price Performance - Quarterly

3

• In 2016, coriander prices during Q1 have trade

on lower levels on hopes of higher supplies in

the domestic market due to high acreage and

reports on higher imports.

• In Q1, the coriander prices were quite volatile

and fell from the higher levels in each of the

three months due to supply pressure. During

the Month of January it fell to Rs. 6,188 per

quintal levels from the high of Rs. 7,420 levels.

• During next two months, the prices fluctuate between 6,200 -7,000 levels. This recovery

from 6,200 levels in prices is mainly because of higher demand for the new season crop

from the stockists, whose stocks have diminished in last two year.

• In the next two quarters (Q2 & Q3), prices continue its recovery due to good domestic

demand and seasonal trend amid slowing down of arrivals in the physical market.

• But the prices have been corrected in the Q4 due to near normal rains in the country and

expectation of better crop in 2016-17. Increase in imports also pressurizing prices.

(0.51)

2.27

5.80

0.14

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4*

Coriander Price - Quartly Change %

* Oct 3 - Nov 18, 2016

Coriander Update Producing states and Production Estimates - Coriander

4

In 2015-16, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation

and Farmers Welfare (Horticulture Division) in its 3rd

advance estimate, pegged the total production of

coriander seed at 5.66 lakh tonnes (lt), up by 22.6% or

10.4 lt compared to last year production.

In 2016-17, the production will be depending on the

area which according to market sources may remain

steady or lower due to huge carry over stocks and

improved imports and acreage may diverted to

pulses and oilseeds.

Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are the top

three coriander producing states in the country.

In the coming Rabi season, the yield of coriander is

expected to be higher as most parts of North-West

India and Central India have received normal to

excess rainfall during the monsoon months.

530 524

314

462

566

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

Coriander Area and Production in India

Prodn ('000 Tonnes) Area ('000 Hectares) Source: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (Horticulture Division)

37.8

27.3

18.0

10.3

3.9 2.1 0.6

State-wise share (%) in Coriandar Production

Rajasthan

Gujarat

MP

Assam

Odisha

AP

UP

Coriander Update Coriander Arrivals Down this year too

5

As per the Agmarknet data, total arrival of coriander

in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during

the first ten months in 2016 is down by about 5%

compared to last year.

In current year, the arrivals are closed to 4.23 lakh

tonnes (lt) compared to 4.44 lt during last year.

In the calendar year 2016, the highest arrivals of

coriander recorded in MP during first ten months.

The arrivals increased by 2 % to 1.5 lt compared to

last year’s arrivals 1.1 lakh tonnes.

In Gujarat, arrivals recorded about 27.7% lower

arrivals at 1.3 lt during the current year compared to

last season while Rajasthan recorded almost the

same arrival volume at 1.3 lt.

The arrival volume in Rajasthan drastically reduced

in 2015 & 2016 compared to 2014 arrivals.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

Y2014 Y2015 Y2016

Gujarat, Rajasthan & MP - Total Arrivals (tonnes) (Jan-Oct 2016)

Source: Agmarknet

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

MP Rajasthan Gujarat

Arrivals Comparision (Jan - Oct)- tonnes

Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Source: Agmarknet

Coriander Update

6

Import – Export : Coriander

India exports only about 10-15 % of its total

production due to higher domestic consumption.

Over the year, the exports of coriander from the

country is decreasing, but the imports are slowly

increasing.

In 2015/16, Spice board estimated coriander exports

from India at 40,000 tonnes, down by 12.8% to against

46,000 tonnes in previous year.

As per the data released by Department of Commerce,

India exports about 14,765 t in 2016/17 till August

which is lower than the imports figures of 16,361

tonnes tonnes for the same period last year.

In 2015-16, India imports about 25,925 tonnes of

coriander in 2015-16 mainly from Russia, Italy, Ukraine

and Bulgaria.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17*

Export Vs Imports (tonnes)

Export Import

Source: Dept of Commerce *Apr-Aug

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Import -Export of Coriander : 2016

Export Import

Source: Dept of Commerce *Apr-Aug

Coriander Update Price outlook

7

• The sowing of coriander has started in the states

of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat but in Rajasthan

and Madhya Pradesh it will start soon.

• Currently, coriander prices were at three year

lower due to pressure of more stocks available in

the physical market. The price will now depend

the sowing progress in the rabi season coupled

with domestic and export demand.

5500

7000

8500

10000

11500

13000

14500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Coriender Prices - Last three years- NCDEX

Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Source- NCDEX

Rs./Quintal

• The supplies in the domestic market seems to be sufficient due to fact that the production

have been good last year along with lower exports and higher import volumes. Thus, the

sowing period (November-February) the market may watch out for the sowing progress and

the weather in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

• We expect NCDEX Coriander prices (CMP: Rs.7,555/Quintal) for December delivery to ease a

towards Rs. 7,200/7,000 levels if the sowing progress in Rajasthan and Gujarat going on well.

• However, due to lower prices this year, the coriander acreage may diverted to oilseeds and

pulses government declared higher MSPs which may support prices at current levels.

Coriander Update

Published in FY 2012. © Angel Broking 2011-12

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8

RiteshKumar Sahu

Analyst- Agri Commodities

Landline: 022 3935 8165