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WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
The environmental performance of current & future passenger vehicles
B. Cox, C. Mutel, Christian Bauer :: Energy Systems Analysis :: Paul Scherrer Institut
ETSAP workshop, ETHZ, December 12, 2017
-2-
Why decarbonization of passenger vehicles?
G. Georges, after BAFU & BFS 2017
Mobility sector in Switzerland: sector with highest CO2 emissions
46% of national emissions (incl. aviation) in 2015
sector with highest consumption of final energy 36% of national consumption in 2015
almost entirely dependent on oil 95% of mobility related energy consumption was oil-based in 2015
-3- G. Georges, after BAFU 2017
Why decarbonization of passenger vehicles? An
nual
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(dire
ct) [
Mt/
year
]
mobility (incl. aviation)
households
industry
service sector
-4-
Life Cycle Assessment - LCA
LCA is a technique to assess environmental impacts associated with all the stages of a product's life cycle from-cradle-to-grave, i.e., from raw material extraction through
materials processing, manufacturing, distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and disposal or recycling.
-5-
Life Cycle Assessment - LCA
«Background» LCA data
Materials, fuels, energy supply, transport, infrastructure, disposal,…
Zero emission ? Environmental impacts?
-6-
Procedure for consistent vehicle assessment
Hofer 2014 -7-
LCA of passenger vehicles: acronyms
ICEV: Internal combustion engine vehicle
HEV: Hybrid electric vehicle
BEV: Battery electric vehicle
FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicle
-p: petrol as fuel
-d: diesel as fuel
-g: compressed natural gas (CNG) as fuel
P2G: Power-to-Gas
SMR: Hydrogen from «Steam Methane Reforming» of natural gas
CH (electricity): average electricity supply in Switzerland
BAU: Business As Usual
NEP: New Energy Policy -8-
Energy consumption: vehicle operation
Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary -9-
LCA results: GHG emissions today
-10- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: GHG emissions ~2040
-11- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: particulate matter today
-12- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: particulate matter ~2040
-13- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: «summer smog» today
-14- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: «summer smog» ~2040
-15- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: lifetime distance vs GHG emissions
-16- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
LCA results: impact of CO2 intensity
-17- Cox et al., 2018 – preliminary
Main uncertainties & limitations in LCA
Location-specific assessment of health impacts
Emissions of pollutants from ICEV (NOx, PM, etc.)
Batteries & fuel cells: lifetime, manufacturing chain, future technology development
Effects of large scale implementation of BEV & FCV
-18-
Take home messages
BEV & FCV only provide environmental benefits with electricity and H2 from renewable sources
GHG emissions of BEV & FCV can be up to 70% lower than those of ICEV (using hydro or wind power)
Other burdens: ambiguous LCA results, also with «clean» electricity and H2, due to:
• burdens from battery and FC manufacturing
• inefficient hydrogen supply chain
Short-term: Natural gas vehicles show largest potential for reduction of impacts
Long-term: electric vehicles need:
• Enough clean electricity
• Recycling strategies for batteries and fuel cells
-19-