ARPU - Average Revenue Per User

ARPU Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004 – 2008 [HR.CTD009.V1U1-2009] Dr.Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/4/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

ARPU

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Nov. 4

2

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

ARPU Trends ......................................................................................................................... 4

Telkomsel ............................................................................................................................... 9

Indosat ................................................................................................................................. 11

Excelcomindo ....................................................................................................................... 13

Telkom FWA ........................................................................................................................ 15

Bakrie Telecom .................................................................................................................... 17

Mobile-8 ................................................................................................................................ 19

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 21

ARPU


Nov. 4

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List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 Blended ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ....................................................................... 5 Figure 2 Postpaid ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ...................................................................... 5 Figure 3 Prepaid ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ........................................................................ 5 Figure 4 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio 2004 – 2008 (%) ................................. 6 Figure 5 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio 2008 (%) ............................................. 6 Figure 6 TSEL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ....................................................... 9 Figure 7 ISAT’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 11 Figure 8 XL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) .......................................................... 13 Figure 9 TLKM’s FWA ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) .......................................... 15 Figure 10 BTEL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ................................................... 17 Figure 11 M-8’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 19

Figure Table 1 Growth/Decay of Total ARPU 2004-2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................... 7 Figure Table 2 Growth of Total ARPU 2004 – 2008 (AGR & CAGR) ................................. 8 Figure Table 3 TSEL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ......................................... 9 Figure Table 4 TSEL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR .................................................... 10 Figure Table 5 ISAT’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................................ 11 Figure Table 6 ISAT’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ..................................................... 12 Figure Table 7 XL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ............................................ 13 Figure Table 8 XL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ......................................................... 14 Figure Table 9 TLKM’s FWA ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................... 15 Figure Table 10 TLKM’s FWA ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ....................................... 16 Figure Table 11 BTEL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ..................................... 17 Figure Table 12 BTEL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR .................................................. 18 Figure Table 13 M-8’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................................ 19 Figure Table 14 M-8’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ..................................................... 20

Table 1 Blended ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ....................................................... 4 Table 2 Postpaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 4 Table 3 Prepaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ........................................................ 4 Table 4 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio – 6 Operators (%) ................................ 7

ARPU


Nov. 4

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ARPU Trends

2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E TSEL 102 87 84 80 59 ISAT 89 67 60 53 39 XL 60 54 46 47 37 TLKM‐FWA 60 47 54 53 38 BTEL 122 117 71 53 42 M8 107 62 48 40 24

Table 1 Blended ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)


Table 2 Postpaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)


Table 3 Prepaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)

No

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Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

59Bl

216

Po

55

Pr

m/harewos

1 Blended

Postpaid

3 Prepaid

39 3

lended

6190

15

ostpaid

35 35

repaid

d ARPU 2

d ARPU 2

d ARPU 2

7 38

d ARP

5293

d ARP

5 32

d ARPU

2008 – 6 O

2008 – 6 O

008 – 6 O

42

24

U 2008

13786

PU 200

42

2

U 2008

Operators

Operators

perators

4

8E

6

8E

2

8E

s

s

ARPU

5

No

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Fi


igure 4 Av

Figure

63.

200

rch rvirtual.com

verage B

5 Averag

.1%

04E

Blen

7.94

Blen

m/harewos

lended-to

ge Blende

44.1%

2005E

nded to

(A

11.435.7

nded to

20

o-Prepaid

d-to-Prep

20.4%

2006E

o PrepRatio

Averag

71

18.75

o PrepRatio

008E (%

d ARPU R

paid ARP

13.6%

2007E

paid A

ge)

0.00

9.

paid Ao %)

Ratio 200

PU Ratio

%8.

E 200

RPU

09

ARPU

4 – 2008 (

2008 (%)

8%

08E

ARPU

6

(%)

No

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TSEL ISAT XL TLKM‐FWBTEL M8

Tab

Figur


WA

ble 4 Ave

re Table 1

1

2

30

40

50

60

ARPU

A

rch rvirtual.com

2004E34.55 12.66 11.11 200.0071.83 48.61

erage Ble

1 Growth/

0

100

00

00

00

00

00

2004

U (6 Op.)

ARPU

m/harewos

2020158

0 14648

nded-to-P

/Decay of

4 2005

2004540

- Tota

005E 0.20 5.52 8.00 47.37 4.79 8.77

Prepaid A

f Total AR

2006

2005434

al (IDR

2006E 16.23 13.21 9.52 54.29 24.56 4.35

ARPU Ra

RPU 2004

2007

2006363

R Thou

- 18%

2007E12.5412.779.30 26.1912.778.11

atio – 6 Op

4-2008 (ID

2008

2007326

usands

%

E 204 77 1

59 17 0

9

perators

DR Thous

2008239

s)

ARPU

7

008E 7.94 11.43 5.71 18.75 0.00 9.09

(%)

sands)

No

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Fi

Pt

g


igure Tab

AGRCAGR

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ble 2 Grow

2005-19.6-19.6

Tota

m/harewos

wth of To

566

al ARP

otal ARPU

2006-16.4-18.0

U Gro

U 2004 – 2

200-10.-15.

owth/D

2008 (AGR

725

Decay

R & CAG

2008-26.7-18.4

ARPU

8

GR)

No

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Figu

Figure T

10

30

7

200

6

8

10

12

ARPU

A

rch rvirtual.com

ure 6 TSE

able 3 TS

02

04

76

04E

0

20

40

60

80

00

20

2004

2004U 102

ARPU

m/harewos

EL’s ARPU

SEL’s ARP

87

291

72

2005E

ARPBlended

4 2005

200587

- TSEL

U 2004 – 2

PU Grow

84

274

72

2006E

PU - TSPostpai

2006

20084

L (IDR

2008 (IDR

wth/Decay

80

264

71

2007E

SELid Pre

2007

06 24

R Thou

- 13%

Tel

R Thousa

y (IDR Th

5

2

5

E 200

epaid

2008

00780

usands

%

lkom

ands)

housands)

59

16

55

08E

200859

s)

ARPU

9

msel

)

No

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Pt

g


Figu

AGRCAGR

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure Table

2005-14.7-14.7

TSEL

m/harewos

4 TSEL’s

577

L's ARP

s ARPU G

2006-3.4-9.3

PU Gro

Growth –

200-4.8-7.8

owth/D

AGR & C

788

Decay

CAGR

2008-26.3-12.8

y

ARPU

10

No

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Figu

Figure T

8

26

7

200

12345060708090

ARPU

A

rch rvirtual.com

ure 7 ISA

Table 5 IS

89

67

79

04E

0102030000000

2004

2004U 89

ARPU

m/harewos

AT’s ARPU

SAT’s ARP

67

241

58

2005E

ARPBlended

2005

200567

- ISAT

U 2004 – 2

PU Growt

60

195

53

2006E

PU - ISPostpai

2006

20060

T (IDR

2008 (IDR

th/Decay

53

183

47

2007E

SATid Pre

2007

06 20

R Thou

- 19%

I

R Thousa

y (IDR Th

3

1

3E 200

epaid

2008

00753

usands

%

Indo

nds)

housands)

39

90

3508E

200839

s)

ARPU

11

osat

)

No

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Pt

g


Figu

AGRCAGR

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure Table

2005-24.7-24.7

ISAT'

m/harewos

e 6 ISAT’s

577

's ARP

s ARPU G

2006-10.4-17.9

PU Gro

Growth – A

200-11.-15.

owth/D

AGR & C

779

Decay

AGR

2008-26.4-18.6

ARPU

12

No

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Fig

Figure

6

30

5

200

1

2

3

40

50

60

ARPU

rch rvirtual.com

gure 8 XL

Table 7 X

60

05

54

04E

0

10

20

0

0

0

0

2004

2004U 60

ARPU

m/harewos

L’s ARPU

XL’s ARPU

54

251

50

2005E

Blended

2005

200554

U - XL

2004 – 20

U Growth

46

172

422006E

ARPPostpai

2006

20046

(IDR T

Ex

008 (IDR

h/Decay (

47

155

432007E

PU - XLid Pre

2007

06 26

Thous

- 1

xcelc

Thousan

(IDR Tho

3

1

3E 200

Lepaid

2008

00747

sands)

19%

omin

nds)

ousands)

37

52

3508E

200837

ARPU

13

ndo

No

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Pt

g


Fig

AGRCAGR

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

gure Tabl

2005-10.0-10.0

XL's

m/harewos

le 8 XL’s A

500

s ARPU

ARPU Gr

2006-14.8-12.4

U Grow

rowth – A

2002.2-7.8

wth/D

AGR & CA

728

ecay

AGR

2008-21.3-11.4

ARPU

14

No

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Fig


Figure

ure Table

6

9

2200

23456

ARPU

rch rvirtual.com

9 TLKM’

e 9 TLKM

60

94

2004E

A

0102030405060

2004

2004U 60

ARP

m/harewos

’s FWA AR

M’s FWA A

47

123

192005E

ARPU Blended

2005

200547

PU - TTh

RPU 2004

ARPU Gr

54

135

35

2006E

- TLKMPostpai

2006

20054

TLKM Fousan

T

4 – 2008 (I

rowth/De

53

115

42

2007E

M FWAid Pre

2007

06 24

FWA (nds)

- 1

Telko

IDR Thou

ecay (IDR

3

9

3

E 200

Aepaid

2008

00753

IDR

11%

om FW

usands)

R Thousan

38

93

32

08E

200838

ARPU

15

WA

nds)

No

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Pt

g


Figure T

AGRCAGR

-35.0-30.0-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0

-5.00.05.0

10.015.020.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

Table 10 T

2005-21.7-21.7

TLKM

m/harewos

TLKM’s F

577

M's ARP

FWA ARP

200614.9-5.1

PU Gr

PU Growt

200-1.9-4.1

rowth/

th – AGR

791

/Decay

& CAGR

2008-28.3-10.8

y

ARPU

16

No

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ov. 4

F


Figu

Figure Ta

12

14

7

200

68

101214

ARPU

A

rch rvirtual.com

re 10 BTE

able 11 BT

22

42

71

04E

020406080002040

2004

2004U 122

ARPU

m/harewos

EL’s ARP

TEL’s AR

117

159

71

2005E

ARPBlended

4 2005

2005117

- BTEL

PU 2004 –

RPU Grow

71

145

57

2006E

PU - BTPostpai

2006

20071

L (IDR

Bak

2008 (ID

wth/Decay

53

144

47

2007E

TELid Pre

2007

06 21

R Thou

- 23

krie T

R Thousa

y (IDR Th

4

1

4

E 200

epaid

2008

00753

usands

3 %

Telec

ands)

housands

42

37

42

08E

200842

s)

ARPU

17

com

s)

No

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ov. 4

Pt

g


Figur

AGRCAGR

-45.0

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

re Table 1

2005-4.1-4.1

BTEL

m/harewos

12 BTEL’

5

L's ARP

’s ARPU G

2006-39.3-23.7

PU Gr

Growth –

200-25.-24.

owth/D

– AGR & C

743

Decay

CAGR

2008-20.8-23.4

y

ARPU

18

No

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ov. 4


Figu

Figure T

10

33

7

200

112

ARPU

rch rvirtual.com

ure 11 M-

Table 13 M

07

39

72

04E

0204060800020

2004

2004U 107

AR

m/harewos

-8’s ARPU

M-8’s ARP

62

217

57

2005E

ARBlended

4 2005

200562

RPU -Th

U 2004 – 2

PU Growt

48

141

46

2006E

RPU - MPostpai

2006

20048

Mobilousan

2008 (IDR

th/Decay

40

115

37

2007E

M8id Pre

2007

06 28

le 8 (IDnds)

- 31

M

R Thousan

(IDR Th

2

8

E 200

epaid

2008

00740

DR

1 %

Mobil

nds)

ousands)

24

86

22

08E

200824

ARPU

19

le-8

)

No

Harewhttp://

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Pt

g


Figu

AGRCAGR

-45.0

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure Table

2005-42.1-42.1

M-8's

m/harewos

e 14 M-8’s

511

s ARPU

ARPU G

2006-22.6-33.0

U Gro

Growth – A

200-16.-28.

owth/D

AGR & CA

770

Decay

AGR

2008-40.0-31.2

ARPU

20

ARPU


Nov. 4

21

Abbreviations & Notes

AGR Annual Growth Rate

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

FWA Fixed Wireless Access A limited mobility service that links to an area code

PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network A fixed wireline telephone network mainly owned, operated and maintained by PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (PT. Telkom)

MoU Minutes of Use (Minutes of Usage) ARPU Average Revenue Per User

2008E End of 2008 TLKM

PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia / PT. Telkom Indonesia

ISAT

PT. Indosat

XL

PT. Excelcomindo Pratama

BTEL

PT. Bakrie Telecom

M-8

PT. Mobile-8

HCPT

PT. Hutchison CP Telecommunication

NTS

PT. Natrindo Telepon Selular

Smart

PT. Smart Telecom

STI

PT. Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia

TSEL

PT. Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel)

Data & Analytics

ARPU - Average Revenue Per User