1. DR. WILLIAM DUNKELBERG Chief Economist NATIONAL FEDERATIONOF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS CHAIRMAN, LIBERTY BELL BANK, NEW JERSEY CHAIR, GLOBALINTERDEPENDENCE CENTER PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS ECONOMIC STRATEGIST

2. TWO WAYS OUT, NEITHER DESIRABLE 3. GDP AND EMPLOYMENT HUGE EMPLOYMENT GAP 4. CONSUMPTION SHARE OF GDP & CONSUMER SAVING 5. EXCESS DEBT: PAYING FOR THE PARTY MAINTAINING DEBT/GDP RATIO IN 1999 6. TRADE DEFICIT THE PARTY 7. DELINQUENCY RATES (AT COMMERCIALBANKS) 8. INDEXOFCONSUMER SENTIMENT QUARTERLY+AUG,SEPT 9. RATING OF GOVERNMENT POLICY 10. CONSUMER NET WORTH 11. SMALL BUSINESS FACTS

90% OF ALL EMPLOYERS HAVE FEWER THAN 20 EMPLOYEES

99% HAVE FEWER THAN 500

PRODUCE HALF OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

EMPLOY 50%+ OF PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES

PRODUCE 2/3RDS OF THE NEW JOBS

12. SMALL BUSINESSOPTIMISMINDEX (QUARTERLY, 1986 = 100) FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 13. SMALL BUSINESSOPTIMISMINDEX (RECOVERY FROM NBER TROUGH) SURVEY FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 14. REPORTED CHANGE IN PAST SALES (last 3 months vs prior 3) 15. EARNINGS TRENDS:%HIGHER - %LOWER PAST QUARTERVS PRIOR QUARTER 16. EXPECTEDREALSALES 17. EXPECTATIONS FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 6 MONTHS (PCT BETTER - PCT WORSE) 18. 19. 20. 21. EMPLOYMENT 22. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 23. % OF ADULTS EMPLOYED 24. AVERAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT PER FIRM QUARTERLY:FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 25. PERCENT OF OWNERS INCREASING OR REDUCING EMPLOYMENT FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 26. UNFILLED JOB OPENINGS % WITH AT LEAST ONE UNFILLED OPENING 27. JOB CREATION PLANS% PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN DECREASE 28. JOB CREATION PLANS( NET PERCENT PLANNING TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT )(RECOVERY FROM NBER TROUGH) SURVEY FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 29. TEEN JOBS AND GDP GROWTH ( BEFORE AND AFTER MINMUM WAGE HIKE IN 2009) MINIMUM WAGE RISES OVER 10% BLS, BEA 30. MOST MFG JOBS LOST TO PRODUCTIVITY 31. JOB CREATION

NO JOB GROWTH WITHOUT POPULATION GROWTH, JUST JOB CHANGE

JOBS CHANGE WITH TECHNOLOGY

MOSTNEWJOBS ARE SERVICE, LABOR INTENSIVE, DELIVERED IN LOCAL MARKETS, BEST DELIVERED BY SMALL FIRMS

PRIMORDIAL STEW FROM WHICH A FEW LARGE FIRMS EMERGE, R&D OF ECONOMY

HUGE TURNOVER, LOTS OF JOBS, TRAINING, EXPERIMENTATION, MARKETTEST

DISTINGUISH BETWEEN BUSINESS CYCLE JOB LOSS AND NEW JOB CREATION

32. HOUSING STARTS 33. ACTUAL CAPITAL OUTLAYS FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTERLEASING ADDED 34. PERCENT MAKING CAPITAL OUTLAYS( PREVIOUS 6 MONTHS )(RECOVERY FROM NBER TROUGH) SURVEY FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 35. 600% INCREASE IN MFG OUTPUT 36. PLANNED CAPITAL OUTLAYS ( NEXT SIX MONTHS) 37. PERCENT PLANNING CAPITAL OUTLAYS (NEXT THREE MONTHS)(RECOVERY FROM NBER TROUGH) 38. OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION (PCT NOW IS A GOOD TIME) NO for 15 quarters 39. OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION (% NOW IS A GOOD TIME) ( RECOVERY FROM NBER TROUGH) SURVEY FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 40. ACTUALCHANGEIN INVENTORY (% INCREASING - % REDUCING) 41. ACTUAL PRICE INCREASES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 42. 43. 44. SMALL BUSINESSCREDIT PROBLEMS (% HARDER TO GET - % EASIER) 45. REGULAR BORROWING ACTIVITY (AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER) 46. LOAN DEMANDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE RECESSION RECESSION STARTS 47. SINGLE MOSTIMPORTANTPROBLEM FACING OWNERS FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER CREDIT: NO PROBLEM 48. AVERAGE RATE PAID ON SHORT TERM LOANS 49. SINGLE MOSTIMPORTANTPROBLEM FACING OWNERS FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER+AUG,SEPT CREDIT: NO PROBLEM 50. MOSTIMPORTANTPROBLEMS FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER 51. RATIO OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING TO GDP 52. U.S. Federal Deficit 53. RATIO OF DEFENSE SPENDINGTO GDP 54. 55. CURRENT SITUATION

GOVERNMENT IS MAJOR SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AT A MAX

DISSATISFACTION RECORD HIGH UofM

FED OUT OF BULLETS FOR THE REAL ECONOMY

MORE STIMULUS= DEBT =FEAR=LESS SPENDING AND LESS INVESTMENT

LESS IS MORE IF MORE GOVERNMENTIS WHAT WE FEAR

56. CURRENT SITUATION

ALL TRYING TO LIVE BEYOND MEANS

NEED TO DECLARE WINNERS & LOSERS

• WHO WINS, GREEKS OR GERMANS?

HOUSING TAKES TIME

DELEVERAGING = SAVING

GROW PIE OR REDISTRIBUTE?

JOBS BILL?

ANYTHING WE TAX WE GET LESS OF

57. A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION 58. ITS ALL A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE 59. 60. 61. TRICKLE DOWN 62. THANK YOU!

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