Q&A
WhatTheyThink
Economic Outlook Webinar
Dr. Joe Webb, DirectorWhatTheyThink Economics & Research
CenterSeptember 23, 2009
This program will begin at 2 PM EDT
Agenda
The shape of the recoveryV, W, rocket, submarine, or a big fat
zero?
Our latest survey
What's ahead for print and media in 2010
Print '09How did we do? What does it mean?
Dr. Joe's Fall reading list
Stagflation is here
Unemployment 9.7%Productivity rising faster than GDP,
removes need for additional hiring
Inflation being reported only @ Y-Y levelSince December 2008 is
a different story
ISM reports show input prices rising
GDP well below post-WW2 levelsConsumption not increasing despite
increased government spending
Lower interest rates not working
GDP was sub-par before recession
Y/Y GDP
Q/Q GDP
Still a problem: money supply
How does the Fed get out?
Fed still lending < inflation rate
Is there inflation or not?
CPI Y/Y vs. since 12/08
Leading indicators
Exports & imports
Latest recovery indicators
Bottom lines:
Employment & Inflation
Unemployment will not improve for a whileWhite House projects
> 10% next year
May not get that bad, but return to 8% may not be until 2011 or
2012
Watch the household survey, not payrolls
Inflation will become more of a recognized problem, pressuring
Fed to raise ratesFed's target has always been 2% maximum, and they
are ignoring it in interests of financial stability, which is
counterproductive
Bottom line: GDP
GDP will be stagnant: -1% to +1.5%Breakout high growth quarter
could appear, but will be unsustainable
Paralyzed by tax and regulatory uncertainty, will remain
paralyzed once become law
Protectionist turn will continue to limit growth, incomes
Asia, despite erratic growth patterns, will still be primary
growth market
Bottom line: Spending
Technology continues to be major focusIncrease productivity
without adding staff
Consumer tech changes media allocation
Consumers continue to be cautiousSavings will still be
characterized as a problem
Personal spending will be basically flat in real terms for
2010
Autos may be critical sign
Bottom Line: The Fed
Reluctant to raise rates; no pre-emptive action against
inflationRaising rates will reduce value of bonds
Dollar will stay relatively weakDollar has generally strong
correlation with economic growth: strong $, strong growth
US businesses will be attractive targets for acquisition; better
deal than Treasuries
Still propping up old assets (housing) and not new
investment
So... which letter is it?
U- or W-shaped recovery?W is more likely
Be careful of the L-shaped non-recovery
Two scenarios:Late 1970s: bad stagflation
Japan 1990s: bad stagnation
Either one is a bad result
9 quarters of negative real growth
Forecasts: 2 models, WTT opinion
2009 = $86.5, 2014 = $58.0
The Latest Survey...
Is it true optimism, or
it can't get worse
than this?
Business conditions:
Q2 was the bottom
2010 Expectations
Regional conditions
and expectations
Printers and social media
What's Ahead for
Print and Media?
It's time to be social...
Round 2 survey of marketers and their plans for 2010
Center for Media Research: Advertisers Plan to Use in 2010
The new media strategy
Paid advertising in permanent declineNew role for agencies leads
to new structure
The old publishing business is just that: old
Continuing rise in unpaid initiativesMore PR workers than
graphic designers?
Saturation of many communications channelsLower expectations for
each
Integrated and multichannel assume that
there is a coordinated planThere is none yet: no one knows what the
right mix is
The new media mix challenge
One can only view one screen at a time
Multitasking is accepted part of lifeDoing it for years, but
passively
Active multitasking is newer, more personal
There's only so much time in a dayInternet & connectivity
take up more of it
Nudge out traditional media, even in B2B
All media becoming direct marketing media
Consumer control and preference work against
traditional communications media
Branding and its consistency is more important than ever
Where Will
Future Profits Come From?
Print '09
What's It All Mean?
Print '09: What's it all mean?
For a recession show with no major technology revolution, it was
goodLonging for the days of Print97? (Internet bubble)
Is the right people showed up (we hear it after every show, no
matter where or when it is) correct or just comforting?
Trade shows still an essential part of communications and social
strategySoftware/communications/connectivity is tough to
display
The industry (whatever that means) still needs a central place
to physically meet
Dr. Joe's Fall Reading (and Watching) List
The new role of print?
Fall Reading List
Watch this or elseSocial media video now up to 660K+ views
David Meerman Scott explains social media and how old rules of
marketing don't apply online (in just one minute!)
Charts of the Week you may have missedPR specialists as a
percentage of agency employment
Ancillary services growth in printers 2002-2007
Change in newspaper advertising revenue
Fall Reading List
How Apple gets the rest of the world to do its marketing for
it
Facebook hits 300 million users
NYC boutique hotel uses social media
in a unique way
Best ways to turn clicks into business
Newspaper charges more for online than it does for print,
increases print subs
Fall Reading List
UN wants a global currency?
Magazines acting more like ad agencies
SmartBrief has superb e-newsletters
New version of ACT! sales software has
e-mail campaign and social media capabilities
Center for Media Research article about advertisers' social
media plans for 2010
Fall Reading List
The Economist is selling single copies via cell phone,
delivers print copy next day
Photo sites now competing with Facebook
CNN on future of libraries
Cynical (but all too accurate?) comic about what marketing
services means
Fall Reading List
Dr. Joe's Print 09 presentation Entrepreneurs Welcome:
Opportunities in the New Printing IndustryOn Slideshare
.zip of audio and PDF from WTT site
Dr. Joe answers Xerox Opportunity Panel pre-event questions
Upcoming Dr. Joe Sightings
Print Solutions 2009, Chicago, Oct. 15
Strategy 09, Toronto, Nov.11
Graphics Canada, Nov. 12
WTT Economic Webinar, Dec. 9
PLGA, February 2010
Thank you!
QUESTIONS!
2009, WhatTheyThink
2009, WhatTheyThink
