W H AT T H E F L A S H C R A S H & B L A C K B O X E S C A N T E A C H U S A B O U T T H E F U T U R E O F S E A R C H .

@KELV INNEWMAN

W H AT ’ S Y O U R J O B ?

@KELV INNEWMAN

Understanding CustomersUnderstanding who pays the billsUnderstanding Google

@KELV INNEWMAN

Ability

Time@KELV INNEWMAN

Pop!Tech

“Practice isn't the thing you do once you're good. It's the thing you do that makes you good.” ― Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers: The Story of Success

On some Malcolm Gladwell, David Bowie meets Kanye shit,

This is dedication, A life lived for art is never a life wasted,

Ten thousand hours felt like ten thousand hands, Ten thousands hands, they carry me.

― Macklemore - Ten Thousand Hours

floshe24 @KELV INNEWMAN

Understanding CustomersUnderstanding who pays the billsUnderstanding Google

A+

A+

D-

@KELV INNEWMAN

Ability

Time@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

I thought maybe it’s the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Adam Sundana

@KELV INNEWMANAdam Sundana

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in unskilled individuals suffering from illusory superiority,

mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate.

This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude.

Conversely, people with true ability tend to underestimate their relative competence based on the erroneous or exaggerated

claims made by unskilled people.

but it was more than that

@KELV INNEWMANEva Rinaldi

T H I N G S I T H O U G H T W E R E T R U E ; N O L O N G E R W E R E

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H I N G S I S A I D W O R K E D N O L O N G E R W O R K E D

@KELV INNEWMAN

A N D T H AT 3 5 , 0 0 0 W O R D E B O O K I W R O T E A B O U T L I N K B U I L D I N G

this presentation isn't about one weird trick to get better

rankings ...

@KELV INNEWMAN

it’s about me dealing with the realisation that I didn’t understand Google, quite as much, as I thought I did.

& I T W I L L C H A N G E T H E W AY Y O U T H I N K A B O U T H O W S E A R C H

E N G I N E S W O R K

@KELV INNEWMAN

Which is important…

Red Touch Media @KELV INNEWMAN

B E C A U S E , W E N E E D T O T H I N K M O R E ( A B O U T

H O W W E T H I N K . )

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H E P R O P

@KELV INNEWMAN

three stories

@KELV INNEWMAN

three lessons

@KELV INNEWMAN

three things to do…

@KELV INNEWMAN

Story One

@KELV INNEWMAN

the first story takes place at the University of Sussex

@KELV INNEWMAN

S O M E G R E AT P E O P L E H AV E S T U D I E D T H E R E .

@KELV INNEWMAN

I A N M C E W A NN O V E L I S T A N D A U T H O R O F O S C A R W I N N I N G A T O N E M E N T

@KELV INNEWMAN

V I R G I N I A W A D ET H R E E T I M E G R A N D - S L A M W I N N E R

M I C H A E L B U E R KL E G E N D A R Y B R O A D C A S T E R

K E LV I N N E W M A NB L O K E W H O U S E D T O D J A T T H E S T U D E N T U N I O N

@KELV INNEWMAN

B U T O U R S T O R Y I S N ’ T A B O U T T H E M

@KELV INNEWMAN

A N D H O W T H E Y M E T T H E PA R T N E R S O F

T H E I R D R E A M S

@KELV INNEWMAN

H A D A W E S O M E

K I D S

@KELV INNEWMAN

A N D I N E X P L I C A B LY P L AY E D

S W I N G - B A L L O N T H E S TA G E W H E R E

A B B A W O N E U R O V I S I O N

@KELV INNEWMAN

I T ’ S A B O U T

@KELV INNEWMAN

D R . A D R I A N T H O M P S O NE V O L U T I O N A R Y & A D A P T I V E S Y S T E M S G R O U P

@KELV INNEWMAN

U N I V E R S I T Y O F S U S S E X , 1 9 9 6D E PA R T M E N T O F I N F O R M A T I C S

H E A S K E D C O U L D A C I R C U I T “EVOLVE ”

T O S O LV E A P R O B L E M

@KELV INNEWMAN

S U R V I VA L O F T H E F I T T E S T A P P L I E D T O C I R C U I T S

T H E E X P E R I M E N T

S U R V I VA L O F T H E

F I T T E S T

@KELV INNEWMAN

S U R V I VA L O F T H E

F I T T E S T

@KELV INNEWMAN

S U R V I VA L O F T H E

F I T T E S T

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H E F I T T E S T W I N O U T AT T H E E X P E N S E O F T H E I R R I VA L S B E C A U S E T H E Y S U C C E E D I N A D A P T I N G T H E M S E LV E S T O T H E I R E N V I R O N M E N T

C H A R L E S D A R W I N

www.CGPGrey.com @KELV INNEWMAN

P R I M O R D I A L D ATA S O U P O F R A N D O M O N E S A N D Z E R O S

T H E F I R S T H U N D R E D G E N E R AT I O N S W E R E L I T T L E B E T T E R T H A N R A N D O M G U E S S E S

JD Hancock@KELV INNEWMAN

By generation #220 there were some encouraging signs.

Generation #1400 had a fifty percent success rate.

Just after #4000 it worked.

@KELV INNEWMAN

S O M E T H I N G S T R A N G E H A P P E N E DI T W O R K E D B U T

JD Hancock@KELV INNEWMAN

The circuit solved the problem using thirty-seven logic gates.

Five logic cells were connected in ways which wouldn't allow them to influence how the circuit worked.

But if you removed them the chip stopped working.

@KELV INNEWMAN

When machines teach themselves; they solve problems in ways we can't understand or reverse engineer.

Story Two

@KELV INNEWMAN

Mike McCarthy A former marketer for

mortgage company

Quinn Dombrowski @KELV INNEWMAN

Southern California.

2:45 PM, 6th of May 2010.

Jayseaka @KELV INNEWMAN

Mike tried to sell shares he inherited, that should have been worth about $45k but actually sold for closer to $28k

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

Moments before each share was selling for $60.

Minutes later they’d returned to that price

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H E L O W E S T P R I C E I N S E V E N Y E A R S .

@KELV INNEWMAN

it quickly spread across the whole market

@KELV INNEWMAN

B I G G E S T O N E D AY D R O P I N T H E D O W J O N E S

I N D U S T R I A L AV E R A G E ’ S 1 1 8 Y E A R H I S T O R Y

@KELV INNEWMAN

The index fell by thousand points or 9%

Twenty minutes later it had bounced back six hundred points.

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H I R T Y O F T H E U S ’ S B I G G E S T C O M PA N I E S H A D I N S TA N T LY L O S T

9 % O F T H E I R VA L U E

@KELV INNEWMAN

JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN

W H Y D I D I T H A P P E N ?

@KELV INNEWMAN

FAT F I N G E R ST H E T H E O R I E S

JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN

JD Hancock

T H E G L I T C HT H E T H E O R I E S

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H E I M PA C T O F H I G H F R E Q U E N C Y T R A D E R S

T H E T H E O R I E S

JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN

JD Hancock

I T M AY H AV E B E E N A L L O F T H E S E R E A S O N S , O R N O N E O F T H E M .

T H E S Y S T E M I S T O O C O M P L E X T O U N D E R S TA N D

B U T T H E A L G O B E H AV E D A S T H E Y S H O U L D

T H E R E A L I T Y

@KELV INNEWMAN

Algorithms can react in peculiar ways when they come into contact with other

algorithms, and the real world

Story Three

@KELV INNEWMAN

D R . I A N M A L C O L MM A T H E M A T I C I A N A T T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F T E X A S A T A U S T I N

Jamie Henderson@KELV INNEWMAN

Isla Nublar, Costa Rica

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

N O T R E A L LY D R . I A N M A L C O L M

Jamie Henderson

http://brandonbird.com/

D R . I A N M A L C O L MA C T U A L LY F I C T I O N A L C H A R A C T E R I N J U R A S S I C PA R K

@KELV INNEWMAN

J U R A S S I C PA R K D O E S A N E X C E L L E N T J O B O F E X P L A I N I N G

C H A O S T H E O R Y.

@KELV INNEWMAN

“ W H E N T H E P R E S E N T D E T E R M I N E S T H E F U T U R E , B U T T H E A P P R O X I M AT E P R E S E N T D O E S N O T A P P R O X I M AT E LY D E T E R M I N E T H E F U T U R E . ”

@KELV INNEWMAN

Edward Norton Lorenz

P H Y S I C S I S G O O D AT D E S C R I B I N G C E R TA I N K I N D S O F B E H AV I O U R

L I N E A R E Q U A T I O N S

Niki Odolphie @KELV INNEWMAN

55Laney69 @KELV INNEWMAN

E V E N I F Y O U K N E W E V E R Y T H I N G A B O U T H O W T H E W E AT H E R W O R K E D Y O U S T I L L C O U L D N ’ T P R E D I C T I T

N O N - L I N E A R E Q U A T I O N S

The weather is s complex & chaotic

system@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

C O M P L E X≠C O M P L I C AT E D

@KELV INNEWMAN

D I F F E R E N C E B E T W E E N S I M P L E , C O M P L I C AT E D A N D C O M P L E X S Y S T E M S

Simple Systems Complicated Systems Complex Systems

Like Following A Recipe For A Meal

Like Sending A Rocket To The Moon

Like Being A Parent To A Child

The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Is

Obvious

The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Requires

Expert Knowledge

The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Is Hard

To Determine

@KELV INNEWMAN

Even with billions at stake, the world’s greatest scientists cannot predict the outcomes of a complex and chaotic

system with precision

S O W H AT ’ S T H I S G O T T O D O W I T H S E A R C H ?

@KELV INNEWMAN

H E D O E S N ’ T K N O W H O W G O O G L E W O R K S

Steve Jurvetson @KELV INNEWMAN

H E C A N ’ T K N O W H O W G O O G L E W O R K S

storyspinn @KELV INNEWMAN

A N D H E H A S N ’ T G O T A B L O O D Y

C L U E .

@KELV INNEWMAN

G O O G L E ’ S A L G O I S P E R F E C T E X A M P L E O F A C O M P L E X & C H A O T I C S Y S T E M

Les Chatfield

A R E A M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G C O M PA N Y

@KELV INNEWMAN

http://research.google.com/pubs/ArtificialIntelligenceandMachineLearning.html

i

$400 Million on AI Company

@KELV INNEWMAN

When machines teach themselves; they solve problems in ways we can't understand or reverse engineer.

JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN

Algorithms can react in peculiar ways when they come into contact with other

algorithms, and the real world

JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN

When Google release an update or change to their algorithm they can never fully anticipate how it will work in real world

nor how the real world will react to that change.

@KELV INNEWMAN

Even with billions at stake, the world’s greatest scientists cannot predict the

outcomes of a complex and chaotic system with precision

Noah@KELV INNEWMAN

In a complex and chaotic systems the relationship between cause and effect is very hard to determine

@KELV INNEWMAN

I used to think the search algorithms work like clocks

Arjan Richter @KELV INNEWMAN

they’re more like clouds

jojo nicdao @KELV INNEWMAN

Or actually closer to how the climate works.

Evil Twin21401 @KELV INNEWMAN

I’m not saying small scale search experiment are a waste of time.

@KELV INNEWMAN

Well actually I am.

@KELV INNEWMAN

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”

Alberto Cabello @KELV INNEWMAN

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”

goblinbox @KELV INNEWMAN

there’s a difference between interesting and useful

three things to do…

@KELV INNEWMAN

or actually three books to read

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

A N D F I N A L LY,

T H I N K A B O U T H O W Y O U T H I N K A B O U T G O O G L E

@KELV INNEWMAN

B E C A U S E , W E N E E D T O T H I N K M O R E ( A B O U T

H O W W E T H I N K . )

@KELV INNEWMAN

B U T W H A T A B O U T T H E B O X

@KELV INNEWMAN

E S S E N T I A L LY I T ’ S A M A C G U F F I N

@KELV INNEWMAN

W H A T I S A M A C G U F F I N ?

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

@KELV INNEWMAN

T H E O B J E C T T H AT D R I V E S T H E S T O R Y F O R W A R D A N D I S O F V I TA L I M P O R TA N T T O B O T H T H E H E R O E S A N D V I L L A I N S E V E N I F T H E S P E C I F I C S O F T H E O B J E C T I T S E L F R E M A I N O B S C U R E O R A R E U N I M P O R TA N T.

@KELV INNEWMAN

Our box contains all of the Google Algorithm on a USB key, would you open it?

@KELV INNEWMAN

W H AT T H E F L A S H C R A S H & B L A C K B O X E S C A N T E A C H U S A B O U T T H E F U T U R E O F S E A R C H .

@KELV INNEWMAN