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What-if Scenario Planning for Large Programs
Prepared by:
Randy Musick
Sr. Project Controls Specialist
Pro2Serve
“See the forest, not the trees”
Session ID#: 200760
Agenda
■ Introduction
■ Client Profile
■ Background and challenges of decision making for the
program
■ Program management issues and lessons learned
■ Improvements implemented and results
■ Q&A
Introduction and Client Profile
Pro2Serve At A Glance
■ Pro2Serve provides technical and engineering services that support critical infrastructure of government and private industry – and help ensure our Nation’s Security
▪ 18 years of experience focused on security systems, facilities
and infrastructure, nuclear and nuclear nonproliferation, program
management and environmental services for DoD, DOE and
Utilities
▪ More than 350 employees, most with advanced degrees and
licensures
▪ Over 180 DOE Q and DoD TS clearances, DoD and DOE
approved classified possessing facility
Client Profile
■ Oak Ridge Office of the Department of Energy Environmental Management
▪ Address environmental liabilities across Oak Ridge reservation
▪ Manage asset utilization, facility upgrade and disposition at 2
sites
33,500-acre Oak Ridge Reservation
Primary cleanup areas: East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Y-12 National Security Complex.
Background and Challenges
Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management
■ High level mission is clearly defined
■ Program goals are aligned with organizational strategic
objectives
■ Program success factors:
▪ Achieve environmental risk reduction
▪ Meet regulatory milestones
▪ Release areas back to sites for on-going modernization
▪ Optimize the work within multiple funding sources and resource
constraints
Complex and Inter-related Projects
■ Facility decontamination and demolition (D&D)
■ Environmental remediation
■ Design and construction of a new facilities
■ Utility re-configurations
■ On-going surveillance and maintenance
Integrated Master Plan
■ $15B, 34-year program
■ Project plans developed and integrated using Oracle
Primavera P6 across a consistent WBS structure
▪ 15,000 Activities with ~16,000 relationships (3 Sites)
▪ 439 D&D facilities
▪ 230 environmental remediation projects
▪ Design and construction projects
▪ Utility reconfigurations and all associated LOE requirements
such as waste operations and surveillance and maintenance
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
439 D&D Facilities
An aerial view of East Tennessee Technology Park prior to demolition.
439 D&D Facilities
An aerial view of Y-12 National Security Complex prior to demolition.
439 D&D Facilities
An aerial view of Oak Ridge National Lab prior to demolition.
Program Challenges
■ Complex interdependencies and layered prioritization
■ Maintain logical project sequencing within budget constraints
▪ expected annual budget appropriations
▪ from multiple individual funding sources associated with specific
types of projects
■ Competing project prioritization between program
stakeholders
■ Frequency of funding scenario development
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Issues and Lessons Learned
Requirements and Challenges
1. Timely project information at the right level of detail for
Program decision making
2. Pedigree of combined and integrated information on
Projects, including inter-project relationships, that will
impact Program level decisions
3. Clear and concise communications mechanism to develop
and present alternative scenarios for effective decision
making
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Initial Planning Model
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Initial Planning Model (Continued)
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Issues and Impacts
■ Change scenarios with inter-project dependencies are
needed for decision making but took weeks to prepare
■ Scenarios needed to be made in days
■ Decisions masked by level of detail
■ Inability to develop timely scenario information resulted in
decisions with unintended consequences
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Improvements and Results
Tool and Process Improvements
■ Implemented new InVizion® Analyzer (―What-If-Tool‖) to
▪ Optimize program decision making process
▪ Improve communication between stakeholders (Contractors,
Public, DOE, and State and Federal Regulators)
▪ Able to focus on data required for decision-making
— Projects, Funding, Schedules, Milestones
▪ Able to analyze multiple project aspects simultaneously
— Cost Plans, Schedules, Milestones, Capacities, Personnel,
Quantities, etc.
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
Tool and Process Improvements (cont.)
■ Implemented new processes
▪ Access real time project information in Oracle Primavera P6 at
sufficient level-of-detail
▪ Develop multiple scenarios in InVizion that obey inter-project
dependencies
▪ Compare, contrast and communicate scenarios to respond to
constraints and funding changes
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model – Base Plan
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model – Revised Plan
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model – Milestones
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model – Site Funding Plan
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model - Funding Source Plan
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model - Funding by Project
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Planning Model - Funding Comparison
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
New Results
■ Measurable schedule and cost savings
▪ Reduced time to respond to funding changes and new
constraints
▪ Realized significant cost avoidance
▪ Reduced lifecycle costs
▪ Improved communications with internal and external program
stakeholders
© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.
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