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Welcome Address to inaugural conference of World Future Society of South Africa, 6-7 May 2010
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energy, environment, education and economics:
Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030
Towards a 2030 vision for South Africa
Welcome Message
By Michael LeeFounder & Chairman
Futures Thinking…by Joe Public
Tomorrow never comes…wishful thinking…rumours…myths
Futures Thinking…by Woody Allen
“I am interested in thefuture. It’s where I plan tospend the rest of my life.”
Futures Thinking…by the Military
“The military are always planningto fight the last war over again withbetter weapons.”
Harold A Linstone, US Futurist
Futures Thinking…by Eskom
LOAD SHEDDING STATUS
“Eishkom” status
The Price of Future Denial = R50 Bn**NERSA’s estimation of power crisis of 2007-2008
BUT…Change is in the air…..
LOAD SHEDDING STATUS
Futures Thinking…by Mel Gibson
“Passive adaptation to a deteriorating environment is aroad to disaster.”
Jamshid Gharajedaghi, Systems Thinker and Futurist
Futures Thinking…by Business
Only one of the original companiesin the Dow Jones index participatedin its centenary celebration in 1996
During the 2008 credit crisis, the five largest U.S. investment banks, withcombined liabilities or debts of $4 trillion, either went bankrupt (LehmanBros), were taken over by other companies (Bear Stearns & MerrillLynch), or were bailed-out by the U.S. government (Goldman Sachs &Morgan Stanley). In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with nearly$5 trillion in mortgage obligations, were placed into receivership.
in its centenary celebration in 1996– death is common in business!
Futures Thinking…by our Government
“Lack of a coherent long-term plan has weakened our ability toprovide clear and consistent policies. It has limited our capacity tomobilise all of society in pursuit of our developmental objectives. Ithas hampered our efforts to prioritise resource allocations... Inaddition, weaknesses in coordination of government have led topolicy inconsistencies and, in several cases, poor service deliveryoutcomes. This Government is determined to fix these weaknesses.”
Green Paper “National Strategic Planning”, August 2009
Futures Thinking…by Futurists
“The future can be explored, colonized, imaginedand created.”
Richard Slaughter, Australian Futurist and complier of theKnowledge Base for Futures Studies
Futures Thinking…by Futurists
Future time is a conceptual space for design, forfor plans, for strategy, for dreams…it may be themost under-utilised resource on the planet. itcontains multiple possibilities which can beexpressed as scenarios.
Futures Thinking…the Paradox of Time
The PAST can be known but we are powerless tochange it, whereas ..
the FUTURE cannot be known yet it can bechanged… SO….
….Become a Future Activist!
“Those who act with sustained and strongintention are the creators of the future.”
Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture
Activism, South African Style!
Future Activism in Alignment
Fly at equal following distances
Fly at same speed
Fly inwards towards centre
Future Activism in Focus
“Let’s not solve the wrong problems.”
Gibbons and Voyer, Science Council of Canada, 1974
Five Future Activism Focus Points =The Castle of Good Hope
ETHOS
ENERGYENVIRONMENT ENERGYENVIRONMENT
ECONOMICSEDUCATION
Path-finding for South Africa to 2030
ETHOS
ENERGYENVIRONMENT ENERGYENVIRONMENT
ECONOMICS EDUCATION
Foresight–Based Decision-Making
EmergentContext
ResourcesObjectives
Good Future-DirectedDecision-Making
Foresight–Based Decision-Making
Cold War
New rocket &computer
technologies
Win spacerace, win cold
war
President Kennedy’s MoonVision
Foresight–Based Decision-Making
New prosperitybased on oil
economy
new petrol-driven
vehicles
Create newmass market forcars; 15 million
Model Ts by1928
Henry Ford’s Vision of a People’sCar – The Model T (1908-1909)
Foresight–Based Decision-Making
Fossil fueldepletion – new
energy order
Renewable &Nuclear power
Create newlocalised,
sustainablewealth sources
President Zuma’s Vision of aRenewed South Africa
Final thought ….
A key principle of systems thinking is that thelogic which led to a problem cannot solve thatlogic which led to a problem cannot solve thatproblem – a higher order of logic, a differentkind of thinking, is required to move forward.Become a future activist by being an agent ofpositive, foresight-based change. But what is
your road map for the future?