Africa’s potential to bethe world food basket

World Future Society ConferenceCape Town 2010

THE “GOING HOME” SHIFT…

Talk will be divided in 3 broad categories– that we can all relate to:– that we can all relate to:

SEX

DRUGS

ROCK & ROLL

UN GLOBAL POPULATIONSCENARIO

REGION 2007 (MILLION) 2050 % CHANGE

• World 6,671 9,191 (can be ashigh as 10,600

+ 38 %

• Africa 965 1,998 +107 %• Africa 965 1,998 +107 %

• Asia 4,030 5,266 + 31 %

• South America 572 769 + 34 %

• North America 339 445 + 31 %

• Europe 731 664 - 9%

Global Shift in Consumption

• Rapid Urbanization

• Reduction of poverty• < $2\day – basic carb intake not met

• $2-$10 – more protein is consumed

• >$10 – demand shifts to more value added products• >$10 – demand shifts to more value added products

• World Bank forecast

– People earning > $16 000\year

• Current 352 M

• 2,1 Billion by 2050

• 7 X increase in protein eaters

• Increased proteinconsumption largest driverof demand in comingdecades

• Production of 1kg proteinon average requires 4 kgon average requires 4 kggrain

• 7 X increase in protein willcause a 7 X 4 increase ingrain consumption = 28 Xincrease grain demand.

Food demand is estimated todouble by 2050

DRUGS

• To meet global demand increase will require a “second

green revolution”

• Challenge

– 37% population increase

– 28 X more feed grain– 28 X more feed grain

• Only 12% of global agricultural land not being utilized(rainforests excluded)

• Africa – holds bulk of this unutilized land

• Agriculture uses 70% of world water resources

• GM holds greatest potential to solve(resistance exists)

Utilize unutilized resourcesfirst.

Rock & Roll

Africa at a Glance

COUNTRY TotalArea km²

ArableLand

ArableArea km²

Irrigatedarea Km²

% Arableirrigated

RenewableWater km³

South Africa 1,214,470 12.1% 146,950.87 14,980 10.19% 50

Angola 1,246,700 2.7% 33,037.5 800 2.42% 187Angola 1,246,700 2.7% 33,037.5 800 2.42% 187

DRC 2,267,048 2.9% 64,837.57 110 0.17 1283

Africa (Sub-Sahara)

14,690,589 8.2% 1,198,411 49,340 4.12%

Africa’s irrigation Potential

• South Africa has some of the lowest renewablewater resources in Africa

• Yet it uses it very well.

• South Africa as benchmark to calculate“theoretical irrigation potential” of Sub-Sahara“theoretical irrigation potential” of Sub-SaharaAfrica

• Potential = 561 326.51 km² of additional irrigationpossible

• Not including areas where irrigation is not

necessary

Africa holds the key tosolving any future global food

crisisLand Water

Why is Africa not taking itsrightful place as global food

producer ?• Subsistence farming –

deeply rooted in culture

• Political instability &• Political instability &corruption (Perceived risk)

• Lack of Infrastructure

• Economies of scale –creating critical mass inlow margin environment

• Funding

• Land ownership

Poverty Reduction

• Africa faces thebiggest povertychallenge of allcontinents

• 107% increase in• 107% increase inpopulation

• Agriculture by defaultdeals with poverty atits root.

• Food security majorrisk

The world is interested inAfrica

A very scarce resource

• “We think now is anexcellent point of entryfor taking a long termposition in agriculture– Lord Jacob– Lord JacobRothschild, FortuneMagazine.

• Korea – Madagascar

• America - Sudan

5 Strategic Action Points

• A realization of the magnitude of the crisisfacing world – specifically Africa

• Infrastructure challenges

• Funding mechanism to deal with perceived• Funding mechanism to deal with perceivedrisk vs. long term investment.

• Gaining critical mass in global commercialagriculture

• Cohesive execution of an Africanagricultural policy

South Africa’s role in anAfrican green revolution.

• South African farmers are on par with theircounterparts in the USA, Chile & Israel.

• Adverse climate \ limited water resources

• Furthest from international markets• Furthest from international markets

• Provide valuable knowledge into Africa

• “Our strategy is to support farmers in alarger African context – in line with ourbusiness expansion goals.” The Thinker,March 2010. Minister Tina JoematPettersson

Africa holds the key to solvingany future global food crisis