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Western Capital MarketsFundamental Analysis
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis
• Technical Analysis: predicting future prices based on past market data, eg. Price and volume
• Fundamental Analysis focuses on the fundamentals of the company
Intrinsic Value vs. Market Value
Intrinsic Value: The actual value of a company or an asset, irrespective of current market capitalization
• Market Value: the market assessment of a company’s value at any given moment
• Market value is what you pay, intrinsic value is what you get
Fundamental Analysis
• Fundamental analysis is an attempt to estimate the intrinsic value of a company
• There are different ways that this can be done:• Top-down approach• Bottom-up approach
Top-Down Approach
• Current state of the economy• In times of prosperity:
• Increased employment• Increased income• Increased spending• Increased sales• Companies invest/grow, higher sales translate
to increased profits, dividends, and higher stock prices.
Note: even poorly run companies may see these increases in sales and profits.
Top-Down Approach
• In times of economic downturn:• Decreased employment• Decreased income• Decreased spending• Decreased sales, earnings, stock prices
Economic Variables vs. The Stock Market
Choosing an Industry
• Once you have developed an outlook for the economy, you can forecast how you think it will affect certain industries.
• Cyclical industries move in the same direction as the economy, are hit hard by rising interest rates.• Automobiles, construction, steel, lumber
Choosing an Industry
• Stable Industries, or countercyclical, do not fluctuate as much as cyclical companies, especially during recession.• Food• Beverage• Public utility companies
Company Analysis
• After identifying the attractive industries, evaluate the financial conditions of companies within those industries• Competitive Analysis• Management Analysis• Financial Analysis
Competitive Analysis
• Industry may grow, but a company that doesn’t compete well may not capitalize on a growing industry.
• Look at various factors in comparison to the competition.• Resources • Product Range• Product Success• Innovation
Management Analysis
• A company with effective management will be more successful in meeting its sales and earnings objectives
• Tricky to evaluate as an investor• Read the past news• Top and middle management turnover• Look at company websites, read the sales
strategies, etc.• E-mail questions to investor relations staff, speed
and quality of response may clue about management.
Financial Analysis
• Balance Sheet:• Assets• Liabilities
• Income Statement:• Earnings
• Statement of Cash Flows• Often used in complement with Income
Statement
Valuation Methods
• Relative Valuation:• Trading Comps:
• Financial Ratios• Implied value based on multiples of
comparable companies
• Fundamental Valuation:• Valuation of Assets• Discounted Cash Flow Approach
Asset Valuation
• Method of valuation based historical or present value of assets, minus liabilities
• Relates to the balance sheet• Ignores the future• Ignores Risk• Preferred by the most conservative
investors
Time Value of Money
• A dollar received today is worth more than a dollar received tomorrow
• 1938 - John Burr Williams (1899-1989) first developed the Discounted Cash Flow approach to valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Approach
• Value of a company equals the net present value of future cash flows discounted at an appropriate rate
• Many variables involved• Many valuation methods are based on
the principles of DCF• Dividend Discount Model• Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
1. Forecast free cash flows for the period of projection2. Estimate the cost of capital
• (Weighted Average Cost of Capital - WACC)
3. Estimate continuing value4. Discount to the present5. Add the value of excess cash and other non-
operating assets6. Deduct financial debt to get market value of equity
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Method
• Pros:• Potentially the most accurate approach to
measuring intrinsic value
• Cons:• As good as its assumptions• Assumptions can change over time
Fundamental Analysis
• Intrinsic Value - Concept of ownership• Stock is a claim of ownership
• Estimates Estimates Estimates• Numbers are important, but business
experience is more so• Common Sense
The Masters!
Warren Buffet
•DCF Method
•Bottom-up
•Coca-Cola
Benjamin Graham
•Value Investing