Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Getting ready for APLA - see whats affecting US Ethylene and how this might affect the gobal commodity markets.
Citation preview
© 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
US olefins, PE & PP at a glance Bernardo E. Fallas, Editor – Americas Petrochemicals 2013
US Ethylene: Stable in July, up in Aug.
2 Source: Platts
What is all means.
3
Click here to watch.
US Propylene: Aug. CPs rise $110/mt
4 Source: Platts
LDPE: Tight globally, up in Asia, US
5 Source: Platts
Polypropylene: Stronger on feedstock
6 Source: Platts
US ethylene margins
7
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2
Dec
-12
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Ce
nts
/lb
Propane Lt Naphtha Butane Ethane
Platts New Report & Analysis
8
US cracker margins 2013
9 Source: Platts
Ethylene: Producers still “all-in”
10
Source: Company announcements, Platts
IF built, proposed greenfield projects in the US could add as much as 8.55-9.15 million mt/yr of ethylene capacity by 2017
Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETA
ExxonMobil Chemical Texas 1,500 2016
Formosa Plastics CUSA Texas 800 2016
Chevron Phillips Chemical Texas 1,500 2017
Dow Chemical Texas 1,500 2017
Sasol Louisiana 1,500 2017
Occidental/Mexichem Texas 550 2017
Shell Chemical Pennsylvania 1,000-1,500 2017
Aither Chemical/RMG W. Virginia 200-300 2017
Appalachian Resins W. Virginia 250 2017
Brownfield projects: The Ones to Watch
11
Source: Company announcements, Platts
Company Location +,000 mt/yr ETA
BASF-Total Texas 60 2012
Dow Chemical (restart) Louisiana 400 2012
Westlake Chemical Louisiana 110 2013
Williams Louisiana 230 2013
Ineos Texas 120 2013
Westlake Chemical Kentucky 80 2014
BASF-Total Texas 100 2014
Westlake Chemical Louisiana 110 2015
LyondellBasell Texas (3) 830 2014-16
Dow Chemical TX/LA (2) 400 2014-16
Ethylene Boom: USGC is the focus
12
Source: ProPublica
14
20
19
21
18 17
16
15
1/7
2 3
4
6
8
10 9
5
13
Greenfield
Brownfield
11 12
Majority of world-scale projects
are at least 3-5 years away
Reference Owner/Operator Location
Production
capacity
(mm Mt/Yr)
In-service
1 BASF-Total Port Arthur, TX 0.06 2012
2 Dow Chemical Hahnville, LA 0.4 2012
3 Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 0.11 2013
4 Williams Geismar, LA 0.23 2013
5 Ineos Alvin, TX 0.12 2013
6 Westlake Chemical Calvert City, KY 0.08 2014
7 BASF-Total Port Arthur, TX 0.1 2014
8 Dow Chemical Plaquemine, LA 0.2 2014-16
9 Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 0.2 2014-16
10 LyondellBasell Channelview, TX 0.11 2014-15
11 LyondellBasell La Porte, TX 0.36 2014-15
12 LyondellBasell CorpusChristi, TX 0.36 2015
13 Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 0.11 2015
14 Aither Chemical Charlestn, W. VA. TBD 2016
15 Formosa Plastics Point Comfort, TX 0.8 2016
16 ExxonMobil
Chemical Baytown, TX 1.5 2016
17 Chevron Phillips Baytown, TX 1.5 2017
18 Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 1.5 2017
19 Oxy/Mexichem Ingleside, TX 0.55 2017
20 Shell Chemical Monaca, PA 1 2017
21 Sasol Lake Charles, LA 1 2017
Total 10.29
Propane: Lifeline for US Propylene
13
Source: Company announcements, Platts
Tightening supplies breed volatility. Relief could be on the way, but next 3-4 years are likely to test downstream markets
Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETA
Dow Chemical (PDH) Freeport, TX 750 2015
Enterprise Products (PDH) Mt. Belvieu, TX 750 2015
C3 Petrochemicals (PDH) Alvin, TX 1,200 2015
Formosa Plastics CUSA (PDH) Point Comfort, TX 600 2016
Williams (PDH) Alberta, Canada 500 2016
Dow Chemical (PDH) * TBD/USG TBD 2018
Enterprise Products (PDH) * TBD/USG TBD TBD
PetroLogistics (PDH) Houston, TX Expansion ---
LyondellBasell (metathesis) Texas Expansion ---
US Propane: Values Diverge
14 Data: Platts LPGaswire
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400Ju
l-0
9
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
$/M
T
CFR Japan 45-60 days FOB NWE Seagoing Saudi CP Gulf Coast
What About Polypropylene?
15
Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETA
N/A N/A N/A N/A
• Zero projects announced
• At least for the short-term, the business appears unattractive,
and companies including Dow Chemical and Sunoco have exited it all together
• Last year, Chevron Phillips and Sumika ended a JV in Pasadena,TX, taking 320,000 mt/year out of the market
• “Polypropylene is going the way of polystyrene” – PP seller
Butane: On-Purpose Butadiene
16
• Restart of dehydrogenation assets to provide isobutylene
feedstock for MTBE, PIB, HP isobutylene and diisobutylene
• Engineering design optimization for TPC OXO-D unit due Q3 2013
• Engineering also underway for PIB expansion
Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETA
TPC Group (BDH) Houston, TX 295 (isobutylene) 2014
TPC Group (OXO-D) Houston, TX 272 (butadiene) 2016
Natural Gas: The Methanol Comeback
17 Source: Company announcements, Platts
Cheap natural gas brings production back to US Gulf Coast
Company Location ,000 mt/yr ETA
OCI Beaumont, TX 750 2012
Methanex (debottleneck) Alberta, Canada 90 Q3 2013
LyondellBasell Channelview, TX 780 Q4 2013
Methanex I (relocation) Geismar, LA 1,000 2014
G2X Energy Pampa, TX 65 2014
OCI (debottleneck) Beaumont, TX 125 Q4 2014
Celanese Clear Lake, TX 1,300 Q2 2015
Methanex II (relocation) Geismar, LA 1,000 2016
South Louisiana Methanol St. James, LA 1,800 Q1 2016
Lake Charles CE/BP Lake Charles, LA 1,000 H2 2016
U.S. Ethane Balance Including Williston Basin Ethane Production
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Mb
/d
Gas Plant Supply Refinery Supply Petchem Demand
Exports to Canada Rejected Volumes 18
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Asia Europe Middle East North AmericaSouth America Africa
Demand
Supply
2017 - Ethylene Balances
Ethylene: Major Expansions Globally
