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An optimistic and rational view of South Africa, Africa and the world to 2050
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South Africa in the 21st Century
Shahid Solomon
UMZANSI 21
It is not yet here ?
It is has gone past ?
It is moving now ?
TRANSITION
Past Present Future
IMPLIES
• Systems that change in interconnected ways
• An inevitable destination
• Unpredictable Journey: messy, fuzzy & zig-zag
e.g. growing up!
Transition is slow + simple – Past is clear – Present is obvious – Future can be predicted
Transition is fast + complex – Past needs analysis – Present is slippery – Future is uncertain
A 21ST CENTURY WORLD FAST + COMPLEX TRANSITION FROM ADOLESCENCE TO ADULTHOOD
REACHING PEAK POPULATION
7 9 10
• Ocean acidification • Nitrogen cycle (N) cycle • Freshwater use • Land system change & soil loss • Biological diversity loss • Chemical pollution • CO2 : Climate change
ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY
HOW DOES OUR THINKING NEED TO CHANGE?
ACCEPT: WE ARE ALL PART OF A RADICAL TRANSITION TO A MATURE & SUSTAINABLE WORLD
RAPID, ACCELERATING AND DEEP
What powers our world energy
What enables our world economy + technology
What connects our world networks + internet
Who we are the networked self
What we think is important global values
Who runs the world global politics
WE NEED TO RE- NOVATE: MAKE SYSTEMATIC TIME PATH CHOICES
• Think System
• Think path
• Think inter-generational
• Embrace Uncertainty
“Humans create their own futures ….and they do so by making decisions and taking action.
Scenarios…..enable…..better decisions as a result of a better understanding of the choices they may face and the potential consequences of those choices.
….allow decision makers ….to design custom systems …”
The Role of System Theory in Scenario Planning
Thomas Chermack Journal of Futures Studies, May 2004, 8(4): 15 - 30
GLOBAL SCENARIOS TO 2050
FOUR DRIVING FORCES
• A Dark Horse
• Five Bright Horses
• Two ZEBRAS
• Seven Human Generations
THE DARK HORSE
CONTESTED CONCEPT OF STATE
VESTED INTERESTS IN NARROW FUTURES?
NATION- STATIST? ISLAMIST ? SOCIALIST? ANARCHIST ?
A GLOBAL SOLUTION FOR GLOBAL ISSUES
FIVE BRIGHT HORSES
LIFE GETTING BETTER FOR MORE PEOPLE
FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO
Population Growth Rates Declining Better Quality of Life • Famine has become rare • People are Living 25% longer than 40
years ago • Greater choice & opportunity than ever
before • More holidays, media choice,
information • Better health: lifestyle diseases now
key issue
Higher Standards of Living
• According to the World Bank, extreme poverty ($1.25/day) has fallen from 1.94 billion people (52% of the world) in 1981 to 1.29 billion (about 20%) in 2010
• GDP per person has doubled since 1970
• Cost of Communication has been slashed
• Price of metals reducing
• Global Middle Class (e.g Italy, Spain)will grow from 7% to 17% by 2025
RELENTLESS TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION BREAKTHROUGH
• The Green Rush • fast rail • super efficient solar • 100% Recycling
• On Line World • Network-linked chips run everything • Talking video smartphones for all • Personal Computing Device
• Biotechnology: Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science • algal ponds generate aircraft fuel • Redesign of materials • Redesign of the human being:
• Genetic Engineering • Transhumanism
ONE WORLD ONE SOCIAL NETWORK
Billions can now exercise instant cross sectional “like”, choice and influence as – Citizens – Shareholders – Consumers – Workers – Entrepreneurs – Groups – Communities
FRESH THINKING
Seeds of New Global Consciousness Emergence of Asian & African Values
TWO ZEBRAS
GLOBAL FINANCE Global Casino of Financialisation?
OR
Recapitalise Re-novation of Global Infrastructure ?
GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS
More Rounds & Rounds of talking
OR
Executive Global Government ?
BRINGING IT HOME: SEVEN GENERATIONS
BUILDERS + BABY BOOMERS + GEN X WILL HAVE TO LEAD THE TRANSITION
Builders
• Born: Before 1945
• Average Current Age: 75
• Characteristics: Conservative
• Running the World: Now
Baby Boomers: Yuppies & Hippies
• Born: 1945 - 1965
• Average Current Age: 60
• Characteristics: Idealistic & Competitive
• Running the World: Now - 2030
Gen X
• Born: 1960 - 1980
• Average Current Age: 45
• Characteristics: Individualists
• Running the World: Now - 2050
GEN X + Y + Z WILL HAVE TO MANAGE THE TRANSITION
Gen Y
• Born: 1995 - 2010
• Average Current Age: 25
• Characteristics: Optimists,
Tech Comfortable
• Running the World: 2030 -
2070
Gen Z “Born Free”
• Born: 1995 - 2010
• Average Current Age: 10
• Characteristics: Tech Savvy,
Tolerant, Globally Connected
• Socially Responsible
• Running the World: 2050 - 2090
GENERATION ALPHA AND BETA WILL LIVE THE CHANGE
Gen Alpha
• Born: 2010 – 2025
• Average Current Age:
• Characteristics: First Globals, Highly Tech Savvy & Enabled
• Running the World: 2070 - 2120
Gen Beta
• Born: 2025 – 2045
• Average Current Age: Unborn
• Characteristics: Post Tech , True Globals, Genetically Engineered “New Humans”
• Running the World: 2090 - 2140
FOUR GLOBAL PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050
46
Plutocracy
Bright Horses Charge
Dark Horse
Stumbles Anarchy
Real Global
Governance
Open
Internet
Gated
Internet
Ad Hoc
Multilateralism
AFRICA IN TRANSITION
FASTEST GROWING & DEVELOPING CONTINENT IN
21ST CENTURY
REAL GDP PER CAPITA WITH GROW AT 4,4% PER ANNUM
2012 – 2050 + MASSIVE URBANISATION
FOUR AFRICAN PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050
52
Rich Dad Poor Dad
Green Continent of
the 21st Century
Asian Resource
Pool
Rich Country
Poor Country
One
Emergent
Africa
Human &
EcologicaI
Investment
Path
Extractive
Investment
Path
Five Colonial Africas
SOUTH AFRICA : A MODEL OF TRANSITION LOSES ITS GLAMOUR
A PAST NOT EASY TO LEAVE BEHIND
• Apartheid was an expensive social engineering project
• The Liberation Struggle was also expensive • Three generations damaged
• Baby Boomers fought the Cold War • Generation X completed the struggle • Generation Y picked up the pieces
Post 1994 structural adjustment was too much of a shock
– SA de-industrialised
– China took the Gap
• New Democracy did a brave job of building lots of houses, clinics and schools
– In dysfunctional settlements
– With immature institutions
• Big Business Divested, economic patriotism was slow in coming
• 40% unemployment compared with only 7% in African Countries
• Resource intensive service economy not generating jobs
SA IS NOT A MODEL FOR AFRICA
NINE PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED IN THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR 2030
• Too few people work • Quality of school education for black
people is poor • Infrastructure is poorly located,
inadequate and under maintained • Spatial divides • Resource intensive unsustainable
economy • The public health system capacity and
quality • Public services uneven + poor quality • Corruption high • Divided society
WHATS HOLDING SOUTH AFRICA TOGETHER & PULLING IT APART?
CORPORATE
CENTRE
MONOPOLY FRACTURE
URBAN FRACTURE
PRODUCTION FRACTURE SOCIAL
FRACTURE
WORKFORCE FRACTURE
STRONG CENTRAL SYSTEM WITH FIVE FRACTURING SYSTEMS
Solid Financial System
Macro Economic Stability
White Middle Class
Black Middle Class
Stable government
Competitive Corporate s
CORPORATE CENTRE
Motor Car based Cities
Apartheid Cities
Low Productivity
Huge Carbon Footprint
URBAN FRACTURE
ADDITION TO NINE PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED BY THE
NDP)
GAUTENG MEGALOPOLIS
Townships
Poverty
Mimetic Apartheid
Poor Education &
Health
Social Fragmentati
on
SOCIAL FRACTURE
High Unemployment
Poor Labour Relations
Grant Relieved Poverty
Low Skills
Growth Ceiling
WORKFORCE FRACTURE
Cheap Coal Electricity
Cheap Labour
Minerals Export
Resource curse
Huge Carbon Footprint
INDUSTRIAL FRACTURE
Big Government
Big Business
Big Trade Unions
Stifled Small Business
MONOPOLY FRACTURE
SOUTH AFRICA 2050
A RICH LITTLE COUNTRY IN AFRICA
SMALL & STABLE
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to 2050
Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 2050 GAIN 2012 -2050
SOUTH AFRICA
50 54 56 +6
TANZANIA 47 81 138 +91
NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223 * UN Projections 2012
PROSPEROUS • SA High Economic Competitiveness • Most sophisticated economy in Africa
DYNAMIC
• Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa
EMERGING MARKET LEADER : Faster GDP growth than Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey
RE-NOVATING SOUTH AFRICA ?
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030
Vision Statement: 12- pages of mythical national poetry
– 12 Themes
– 73 Objectives
– 119 Actions
TARGETS
• Eliminate Income Poverty: zero households with income below R 419 (2009)
• Reduce Inequality: GINI from 0.69 to 0.6
• Increase employment from 13 - 24 million
• Raise per capita income from R 50 000 -R 120 000
• Increase the share of national income of bottom 40% of people from 6% to 10%
Its approved so it shall happen…
QUESTIONS
• What Global & African scenarios ?
• Why did previous strategies & plans fail?
• What uncertainties?
• What mythology are we replacing?
• What systems?
• What choices + consequences?
• What step path to 2020 > 2030 > 2050?
FOUR SOUTH AFRICAN PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050
80
African Island
African Finance &
Knowledge Hub
African Crime Capital
African Casino
Fractures
Healed
Open To
Africa
Closed To
Africa
Fractures
Widen
CENTRE HOLDS
CENTRE FOLDS
OPTIONS FOR MASSIVE DISRUPTIVE POSTIVE SYSTEMS CHANGE ?
BUST THE CULTURAL DNA CODES THAT HOLD BACK ?
DISCARD THE USED FUTURE South Africa? Azania?
ACKNOWLEDGE THE REALITY OF THE DISOWNED FUTURE Capitalism, Socialism, Apartheid, Inequality, Exile, Brutality, Struggle, Flight
LIVE A RATIONAL OPTIMISTIC CULTURE OF
UMZANSI TRANSITION AND RENOVATION ?
Joburg Central Park
SMASH THE APARTHEID TEMPLATE WITH BOLD URBAN RE-NOVATION ?
INDUSTRIALISE FOR A GREEN CONTINENT ?
FAST TRACK SOUTHERN AFRICA CONNECTIVITY + INTEGRATION ?
TURN IKASI INSIDE OUT ?
UNLEASH BOTTOM UP ENTREPRENEURSHIP ?
OUT OF BOX FAST TRACKS FOR HEALTH AND EDUCATION ?
WORK BACK & WORK FORWARD
LOOK OUTSIDE IN & INSIDE OUT
HAVE THE CONVERSATION
PULL IT TOGETHER INTO CLEAR STORY OF CHOICES & FUTURES
DESIGN & BUILD A FORESIGHT SYSTEM AROUND THE NDP
– Linking with the Strategy + Budget Cycle
– Connecting SA Futures to Africa & World Futures
– Think long past 1900 and future 2050
– Design a transition path
MANAGE A GLOBAL LOBBYING STRATEGY AROUND PREFERRED AFRICAN & GLOBAL SCENARIOS
SYNCHRONOUS TRANSITION
LINK NATIONAL CONVERSATION TO:
• Regional Re-Novation
• Institutional Re-Novation
• Enterprise Re-Novation
• Human Re-Novation
CONCLUSION
By mapping the past, present and future By anticipating future issues and their consequences By being sensitive to the grand patterns of change By deepening our analysis to include worldviews and myths and metaphors By creating alternative futures By choosing a preferred future and back casting ways to realize the preferred future
We can create the world we wish to live in. Sohail Inayatullah (2008)
THE RE-NOVATOR
• Urban Planner
• Futurist
• Re-novator
Umzansi 21: Renovating South Africa in the 21st Century (publication under development)
Blog:
http://shahidsolomon.wordpress.com
novation [email protected]
www.novation2050.co.za
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