TRADING RISKS

How startups and multinationals should recalibrate their relationships after years of fumbling around and why building no-bullshit synergies matter more than ever.

PHILIPPE MÉDA @icopilots

TRADING RISKS

1. RISK IS A SUNK COST2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS3. CHEATING THE CASINO

TRADING RISKS

1. RISK IS A SUNK COST2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS3. CHEATING THE CASINO

I have known adventures, seen places you people will never see, I've been Offworld and back...frontiers! I've stood on the back deck of a blinker bound for the Plutition Camps with sweat in my eyes watching the stars fight on the shoulder of Orion. I've felt wind in my hair, riding test boats off the black galaxies and seen an attack fleet burn like a match and disappear. I've seen it...felt it!

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

RISK IS A SUNK COST

Built to explore a specific risk ✔ Burn resources faster than normal ✔ Dies after for 2.8 years ✔

RISK IS A SUNK COST

Invention means the conception of a novelty.

Instead innovation is defined by the introduction of the invention in the social environment.

The market is a specific form of social organization.

Joseph SCHUMPETER

RISK IS A SUNK COST

How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms?

RISK IS A SUNK COST

How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms?

RISK IS A SUNK COST

98% of the industry

is complacent

RISK IS A SUNK COST

1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs 5-10 Yrs

Level of UNCERTAINTY

NOWcomplex chaotic

RISK IS A SUNK COST

NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex

Uberization AKA « shit will happen »

A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).

5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic

RISK IS A SUNK COST

NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex

Uberization AKA « shit will happen »

A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).

Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »

An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while

you haven’t yet.

5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic

RISK IS A SUNK COST

NOW 1-3 Yrscomplex

Uberization AKA « shit will happen »

A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).

Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »

An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while

you haven’t yet.

5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrschaotic

Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »

While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.

RISK IS A SUNK COST

NOW 1-3 Yrs

3-5 Yrschaotic

complex

Uberization AKA « shit will happen »

A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).

Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »

An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while

you haven’t yet.

Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago.

Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »

While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.

5-10 Yrs

RISK IS A SUNK COST

1-3 Yrs

3-5 Yrschaotic

complex

Uberization AKA « shit will happen »

A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by us ing new c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g i e s (mobile B2C).

Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow »

An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while

you haven’t yet.

Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago.

Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid »

While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers.

5-10 Yrs

NOW

RISK IS A SUNK COST

RISK IS A SUNK COSTRISK IS A SUNK COST

IoT Market worth

$661.74 Billion by 2021

RISK IS A SUNK COST

RISK The FUTURE is a sunk cost

RISK IS A SUNK COST

RISK IS A SUNK COST

= We probably won’t survive this…

TRADING RISKS

1. RISK IS A SUNK COST

3. CHEATING THE CASINO2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

FUTURE-DRIVEN

CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

FUTURE-DRIVEN

CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

FUTURE-DRIVEN

CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

FUTURE-DRIVEN PROCESS-DRIVENCUSTOMER-DRIVEN

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

FUTURE-DRIVEN

CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

PROCESS-DRIVEN

YOUR CULTURAL BLINDSPOT

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

PROCESS-DRIVEN

Startups working on new

customers paradigms.

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

Startups working on

future value propositions .

SUNK COSTS

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

Startups working on

future value propositions .

Peugeot will work with Boston-based

nuTonomy on a project involving self-driving

cars in Singapore.

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

Your blindspot is your FOCUS

LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

= Right, we’re « just » going to subcontract risk…

TRADING RISKS

1. RISK IS A SUNK COST

3. CHEATING THE CASINO2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

CHEATING THE CASINO

TECH MATURITY

NOW

MARKET READINESS

2,5%15% 0%

RUPTURE 0.001%

Black Swans

1 Year

3 Years

10 Years

42

INCREMENTAL 80%

Industry

PROCESS-DRIVEN

TECH MATURITY

NOW

MARKET READINESS

2,5%15% 0%

1 Year

3 Years

10 Years

INCREMENTAL 80%

Industry

CHEATING THE CASINO

PROCESS-DRIVEN

TECH MATURITY

NOW

MARKET READINESS

2,5%15% 0%

1 Year

3 Years

10 Years

INCREMENTAL 80%

Industry

YOUR CULTURAL

BLINDSPOT

CHEATING THE CASINO

TECH MATURITY

NOW

MARKET READINESS

2,5%15% 0%

1 Year

3 Years

10 Years

42

17

13

PROCESS-DRIVEN

48INCREMENTAL

80% Industry

120 ≃Projects

CHEATING THE CASINO

CHEATING THE CASINO

5

CHEATING THE CASINO

5

100

CHEATING THE CASINO

TRADING RISKS

Business ROI Brand ROI How more visible are you on the market, how do you build better trust and customer intimacy…

Market ROI How much better do you understand your current customers or foresee new trends.

Alignment ROI How well do you exchange best practices internally,how do you get a better cross-team alignment, …

Culture ROI How much agility and reactivity have been increased, how many teams have a better understanding of your market, ...